Address by the President of the Russian Federation • Hacker News Board

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#61

Post by topspin » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:48 PM UTC

namelessoracle wrote: post #15

topspin wrote: post #8

Putin has no choice. He's had no choice since he started all of this in 2014; he can't back down because that outcome isn't survivable for a Russian leader. It's going to take 100,000+ dead Russians. At some point the military and civilian leadership in Russia will realize that Putin has to go, and that is when all this will end. There is a lot of death and destruction yet to go. Ukraine will struggle with hundreds o…

People said much the same about Syria, and yet Assad is still there. Ukraine would be foolish to trust the North America or Europe to support them forever, especially if even more major economic issues happen in either continent. That seems to be Putins play, he is hoping the West's internal issues sufficiently flare up. This winter will probably determine that. The only real diplomatic path is to convince China to s…

Syria isn't a useful analogy for Ukraine. Syria isn't Europe. Syria is a tangled civil war whereas the Russian invasion of Ukraine is bald faced aggression. Syrian rebels do not and will never enjoy the unprecedented level of support Ukraine has.

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#62

Post by namelessoracle » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:55 PM UTC

kranke155 wrote: post #47

theironhammer wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

I know those arguments and reject them. Hopefully you will too eventually. Feeling wronged gives Russia no right to trample on the sovereignty of 40 million Ukrainians - who wanted to join NATO of their own free will. Anyway.

Thats irrelevant to the decision points Putin has in front of him.

It's pretty clear he thought he would just roll in and take over Ukraine in the first month, the West seemed to think so too. Now thats not true and it's clearly a mistake what are his options? Withdrawal and losing is likely to end up with him dead, maybe his family too. Keeping at it MIGHT still see him win the day, especially if energy prices in Europe keep sky rocketing and their commitment gets shaky, doubly so if the United States has another decrease in GDP next cycle and rethinks foreign aid.

What decision points does Putin have right now that maximize his personal survival and that of his family? Whats the obvious play that Im missing? Sometimes you make mistakes and your only options are to double down and hope it works out or accept the defeat. The defeat in this case will prove terminal, so its a non option for him.

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#63

Post by freeone3000 » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:56 PM UTC

diimdeep wrote: post #58

Can anyone clarify something that I have recently heard in interview (Russian language)[1]: that U.S. citizens believe that U.S. defeated Nazis and won WW2, and not USSR. Is this in your experience is mostly true or false ? [1] https://youtu.be/Q0oRii7zV9A?t=1973

This isn't taken as factually true but is part of the US narrative, so it feels true even to people who were told about WWII. After all, the Allied Powers were fighting Germany, so USSR contributions feel limited, even if their contributions exceeded Allied ones.

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#64

Post by soco » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

Garvi wrote: post #36

Mikeb85 wrote: post #5

All the doublespeak is actually pretty amazing to witness... We're defending Russia but also "liberated" Kherson and Zaporizhzhia... The west is threatening us with nuclear weapons... The regime which came into power in 2014 (nevermind that Poroshenko and that whole group were voted out in a democratic election where Zelenskiy and his party, who were notably more friendly to Russia at first, came to power)...

What's actually amazing to witness is an A-list Hollywood director making a documentary on the CIA financing of neo-nazi groups inside Ukraine and their involvement in the killing of Donbass civillians in the civil war now raging for over 8 years and being censored so effectively, few US citizen seem to know about it. Another fact I find amazing is the maidan revolution being televised for weeks across the globe on a…

[flagged]

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#65

Post by orwin » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:58 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #57

kranke155 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They invaded with less than 300k. It is doubtful that Ukraine has a similar number of professional soldiers (excluding Territorial Defence ). It’s possible that this will give them an overwhelming force.

Ukraine didn't have 300k when Russia invaded. They may have more now. Anyone have data? And, 300k without artillery, tanks, air support, and logistics isn't an overwhelming force. Does Russia have the rest of what it takes to make them an effective force?

No.

They have less than 800 multipurpose and attack planes combined (because i don't want to explain it in another comment: they have air superiority, so their fighter plan count isn't relevant).

If we consider Russian hardware as well maintained as France or US, it means 650 available planes max for offensive operations. A bit more than 50 planes are confirmed destroyed, so I'll round it up to 600. That means 300 sortie a day max (if each plane have 2 maintenance crew fulltime). But as the long-range air defense is effective, you cannot penetrate too deep, and that limit the efficiency.

Ukraine is like twice the size of Irak, with more population and vegetation. Russia do have air superiority but they cannot action it.

Hopefully for the conscripts, Putin just want to defend and wait it out . In this case, manpower is effective.

Another way to use manpower is to assault continuously WW1 style, supported by artillery fire. This would be stupid.

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#66

Post by Georgelemental » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:59 PM UTC

Mobilization will hurt Putin politically in Russia. Much of his power and following is based on the belief that he is the only one who can provide stability for Russians—"Putin, the one who put an end to the chaos of the Gorbachev and Yeltsin years." But not mobilizing means losing the war, which he would not survive. So, a bitter pill but one he must swallow

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#67

Post by namelessoracle » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 5:59 PM UTC

Someone wrote: post #27

namelessoracle wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People said much the same about Syria, and yet Assad is still there. Ukraine would be foolish to trust the North America or Europe to support them forever, especially if even more major economic issues happen in either continent. That seems to be Putins play, he is hoping the West's internal issues sufficiently flare up. This winter will probably determine that. The only real diplomatic path is to convince China to s…

> The only real diplomatic path is to convince China to sever with Russia, and thats not gonna happen. It’s not going to fully happen, but Putin met Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan last week, and returned a bit disappointed. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/16/world/vladimir-... : “President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Thursday that China had “questions and concerns” about Russia’s war in Ukraine, a notable, if cry…

My broader point is that there is basically only 1 country who could put sufficient diplomatic pressure now to make Russia change course, and they've already clearly signaled they will not put that pressure on them to do so.

The current status quo where a luke warm ally nearby country whose territory and resources you might want to scoop up some day and your major rival are both burning resources, while you get to profit being the middle man between the 2 benefits China greatly. Fully supporting Russia doesn't.

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#68

Post by soco » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 6:00 PM UTC

theironhammer wrote: post #43

kranke155 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a nonsense commment. Are you trying to say Biden saying something puts Putin is some kind of impossible position? This is an imperialist war of choice.

Quoted post unavailable.

No post body was provided.

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#69

Post by foverzar » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 6:04 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #2

So deciphering the double-speak: Russia is instituting a draft, they consider Crimea part of Russia's territorial integrity, efforts to dehumanize the opposition or paint it as a shadowy international conspiracy continue, and they're threatening nuclear war. Get ready for WW3.

Seems more like a translation TO doublespeak.

You can argue with every point, but won't ever win cuz "it's just a way to communicate without being pedantic", but then you put all of this together and get a complete and utter gibberish. And this is basically how doublespeak works.

Re: Address by the President of the Russian Federation

#70

Post by netmonk » Wed, Sep 21, 2022, 6:05 PM UTC

mikeyouse wrote: post #46

Blackthorn wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hot damn, the whataboutisms are out in force on this article, and not even an hour in.

I’d love to ask the residents of Bucha or Izium what they think about the relative respect for human rights between Russia and Ukraine but of course the Russian military invaded their land and then murdered large swaths of their population and then buried them in mass graves. These things are just the weakest deflections in service of a psychopathic dictator’s imperialistic war.

Mickey what is the name of your drug dealer ? He sells good stuff it seems.