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Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

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Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#61

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

To me it's more that Russia has committed an extremely autocracy-typical error - bad information, overemphasis on territory due to reliance on resource economy, underestimating the enemy resolve - and since we've lived for many decades under the threat of the UdSSR, this is ... well, revenge would be the wrong word. I think everybody was content to let Russia be an inoffensively harmless behemoth. But if it's going to go back to its old games, and set itself up for such an opening embarrassment as it has, I think everybody is very willing to let it bleed basically arbitrarily - to some limit, since Ukraine is willing to foot the bill in bodies. So even if it hurts us economically, as long as it hurts Russia more, that's fine.

This is how you stand up to a bully. Every child knows this instinctively. Putin overplayed, and now he gets to stew in it.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#62
post #24

I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?

The assumption here is also that gas prices stay high. They might very well be, they might be higher, but they might also go down. At the moment it's very hard to tell where this is going. If the Gas prices stay high for an extended period of time, the EU's smallest problem is probably going to be Germany.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#63
post #5

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

Yup, my stance as well. Russia is making an ideological mistake and just doesn’t understand the 21st century (and what we learned in the 20th)

[flagged]

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#64
post #49
post #24

I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?

Maybe France can take over, at a lower productive level certainly. We have less ideology in energy sourcing (I d say many of us may even be proud of nuclear power and I had enough insanely aggressive debate with our German friends to know there s someth wrong there in how they represent it), we can find a way to change our work culture to target profitability a bit more and we can take as many german refugees as we n…

The French nuclear power plants are one of the problems right now. I'm not convinced that France has an advantage here as they also don't seem to be able to build new reactors for a reasonable price in a reasonable timeframe. Having a lot of old reactors that need to be shut down a lot due to temperatures and maintenance it not really helping things.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#65
post #20

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

That is how it works. That’s what we assume will work when we apply sanctions on Russia. If it was less serious, if it wasn’t in our faces that innocent people were dying, if it was something “far away” and “complicated” and not so one-sided. It would work. Some (perhaps most) people are extremely selfish, even when it’s detrimental to themselves; you see it all the time with people not leaving enough space to collec…

Although I agree in the basis, it is more complex than just selfishness.

In this war we have already been primed and aligned. Europe has been effectively aligned with Ukraine, whether it was through propaganda or plain high quality media coverage. So at the very least we will be sad to see Ukraine fall. On top of that we have been thoroughly informed that Russia is a threat to the EU, and Russia has done nothing but confirm that belief.

Besides being selfish we are self preserving. And we'd rather be cold and dropped down a couple notches economically, than have our entire union be threatened by some kleptocracy.

Most people would probably be ok with passively waiting for Ukraine to fall, and being cold while doing so, as well as reinstating relations with Russia after the war is over. But I think if EU leadership decides action is needed and we need a more active hand, it will receive majority support from the populace.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#66
And the prices are soaring. I am currently under contract and have 'normal' price per month but my contract ends this year. A friend of mine showed me his currently price for energy (gas and electricity bill in one) and his price wend from 300 to a 1100 per month. For people having a low income this is devastating. Some people on welfare cut the gas line to avoid getting into billing issues. I fear the future.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#67
post #45

But long term, despite their history of moronic energy policy, I don't see the EU making itself dependent again on Russian gas (or any other critical commodity). Which is kind of a problem for a commodity driven economy like Russia.

One could argue reduced dependency on natural resource export could benefit russian economy in the long term because it undermines current regime, the root cause of the lack of growth during the last decade.

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#68
post #45

But long term, despite their history of moronic energy policy, I don't see the EU making itself dependent again on Russian gas (or any other critical commodity). Which is kind of a problem for a commodity driven economy like Russia.

Surprisingly short-sighted by the Russians

Re: Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

#70

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could…

> There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians."

If I take a look at twitter, there are people saying exactly that [2]. Not using that phrasing, of course, but there people, even politicians (mostly from the left [0] and right [1] end of the spectrum), who demand the end of sanctions against Russia so we can have cheap gas again.

[0] https://www.sahra-wagenknecht.de/de/article/3189.hebt-die-sa...

[1] https://www.merkur.de/politik/afd-chef-tino-chrupalla-ukrain...

[2] https://twitter.com/GBri1208/status/1571227979266531328

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