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The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

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Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#61
post #45
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is pretty bad from this point of view from what I recall, compared to other places where it's generally legal to build a broader variety of housing in cities. But perhaps it just got bad here early compared to other places. Portugal's demographics, like much of western Europe, didn't look like they were going to change dramatically: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Portugal - so getting set up to…

The US is pretty bad if you force yourself to remain in the same area (which, to be fair, most people do). But the US is large and there are places where housing really isn't the issue (but there can be other issues, too).

That's changing quickly though. Most of the cheaper places did 'cheap' via sprawl, and that's kind of low hanging fruit that you need to move beyond in terms of housing options, sooner or later.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/housing-cr...

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#62

Some Canadian cities responded to this with a foreign buyers tax, notably in Vancouver. Florida has a method for balancing its "snowbird" population to do with foreign buyers. Personally, I think this is the effect of governments themselves no longer believing in nations and borders or a responsibility for them, and simply importing polarized populations of both very rich and very poor people whose effect in concert…

The Portuguese case is quite different, I think.

Canada has a well-developed and diversified economy. Portugal needs to import a lot from the world, but has very little to offer in exchange.

They found something: their real estate and city center spaces.

The country NEEDS this foreign income. It's not a self-sustainable economy and the world won't work for them for free. If the Portuguese want to solve this issue, one way is to study what else could they develop internally that would be attractive in the world trade market.

Also, foreigners are looking for the European passport, not for Portugal per se. If Portugal were to follow UK's path, demand for their Golden Visa would drop dramatically.

It doesn't benefit the rich, only. By raising real estate prices, it stimulates the construction business, which is labor intensive and has a long supply chain. It benefits the entire economy of the country.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#63
>It’s a case of saying that Portugal has been constantly for sale. If in the recent past, large public companies were sold off to Chinese managers who now do whatever they want — like Energias de Portugal (EDP), the main electricity company, which, after making an exorbitant profit in the first semester of the year, they’re now saying that energy prices are going to go up again — now are private assets which are being bought out

What a fucking disaster. Selling off national assets to foreign investment groups.

>China Three Gorges Corporation, a SOE, won in December 2011 the bidding for the Portuguese government's 21.35% interest in the company. The transaction is expected to be concluded by April 2012. As of February 2014, just under 45% of the ownership of EDP was controlled by five institutional shareholders. Amongst the others were the Qatar Investment Authority and BlackRock.

Qatar, China, BlackRock. Can't find a better bunch.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#64
The article seems odd and is all over the place.

> The government has taken desirable measures for foreigners, making it easier for them to get golden visas if someone invests a certain amount of money. My husband, who works in real estate, tells me countless stories of flats left uninhabited by some rich person who arrived at the building, bought two flats so that he could get a visa, and doesn’t even live there.

There are a bunch of restrictions on where and what types of properties qualify. You can no longer buy property in large cities and get the 'golden visa'.

I do not think that is the main driver in large cities. IF these price hikes are indeed driven by foreigners, it's probably other European Union residents.

> Nowadays, flats are being rented in Lisbon for four thousand euros

Yeap. Rented. So why did they bring up the visa thing? You can't qualify if you rent.

Also, housing prices have been increasing all around the globe at the same time economies are screwed up and inflation is rampant everywhere. Blaming foreigners seem... xenophobic? I didn't know Portugal was like that.

For starters, is there enough new construction to satisfy demand? If not, there's the answer.

> (...) And if Brazilians, who must be the largest source of Portuguese immigration, move here

Wait. I thought the problem was rich foreigners? There are rich people in Brazil sure, but I seriously doubt their numbers would even move the needle. The overwhelming majority of expats are _not_ millionaires. If you are that rich, you can have a pretty great quality of life and would only look to live in Portugal if you were really into Europe or something like that. Rich brazilians are more likely to want to have property in Miami.

> The Portuguese are becoming, nothing more and nothing less, the servants of big foreign millionaires

Back to the foreign millionaire thing.

Way back in 2012 I had the opportunity to live and work in Europe. I considered Portugal, but while the country is amazing and the food is good, the salaries were utterly terrible compared to the neighboring countries. It seems that things have not changed.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#65
post #61
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is pretty bad if you force yourself to remain in the same area (which, to be fair, most people do). But the US is large and there are places where housing really isn't the issue (but there can be other issues, too).

That's changing quickly though. Most of the cheaper places did 'cheap' via sprawl, and that's kind of low hanging fruit that you need to move beyond in terms of housing options, sooner or later. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/08/housing-cr...

Combining increased demand with reduced supply has caused a huge "pig in a snake" scenario, which is going to readjust suddenly (arguably it already has around here) where built supply is starting to outstrip demand.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#66

I wonder how much Airbnb is to blame on the raising rents around the world. Why charge a "local" rate when you can charge 5x that rate for a tourist paying in $$$? Even if you don't, just knowing about Airbnb's extremely high prices will most likely put inflationary pressure on rents.

In August 2019, ~1600 places were up for rent in Dublin. In August 2020, it was double that. Mostly from tourist hotspots with AirBnB people trying to shift to long term lets. They're back on AirBnB now, and housing is even shittier than it was before. Yes, there's other issues, but AirBnB has been a known problem in Ireland since at least 2016 when I was first looking at places to rent in the country.

The government has said they're going to start tackling the issue of short term lets this month. I'll believe it when I see it.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#67

Some Canadian cities responded to this with a foreign buyers tax, notably in Vancouver. Florida has a method for balancing its "snowbird" population to do with foreign buyers. Personally, I think this is the effect of governments themselves no longer believing in nations and borders or a responsibility for them, and simply importing polarized populations of both very rich and very poor people whose effect in concert…

No post body was provided.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#68
post #59

Lots of contradictions in tfa Does Portugal have US style NIMBYs ? Why not build more housing Sounds like Golden visas worked at attracting foreigners, raising Portugal’s land value, and incentivized citizens to move to depopulated areas

The rules have changed so you can no longer qualify if you buy property at large cities. Now, you have to buy property in smaller communities. There's a special incentive if you buy an old property with the intent to restore it.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#69

There’s much truth here, but it isn’t the entire picture. Lisboa and Oporto are hideously overpriced, and it is indeed hard to see how a normal Portuguese earner can afford to live in either. Even Vila Nova de Gaia, which was the “cheap” side of Oporto, is now parlously expensive. This effect has bled along the coast, and many coastal villages now ask €200k for an unmodernised one bedroom house. But… the interior of…

It's not just takeout, it's hospital services, repair, dentists, big specialty stores, cinemas, concert venues, day care & after-school activities and so on.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#70
post #34

This is not just Portugal. I see similar sentiment in Canada where young professionals in Vancouver or Toronto complain they can't buy their first home and Vancouver has been "sold out" to foreigners. Similar sentiment in Australian major cities as well.

Definitely the same sentiment in Dublin and Galway from my experiences over here in Ireland too. Though mostly AirBnB rather than golden visas.
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