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Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

arxiv.org

61–70 of 97 posts

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#61

Reason to be skeptical: For the last 10 years (?) or so most everybody has a mobile phone with high-quality camera in it and most people carry their phone with them all the time. Shouldn't that mean that the quality and quantity of UFO evidence should have exploded since about 10-15 years ago? But I haven't seen any articles about how much more and how much better quality UFO evidence we have now that anybody whose s…

> most everybody has a mobile phone with high-quality camera in it and most people carry their phone with them all the time.

I feel like a small craft in the sky is hardly going to look good on even the best phone cameras. Ever try to take a photo of a plane. These cameras suck at anything past 2x zoom. The overall point though I think is sound, filmed incidence rates (even if still in crappy quality) should be plentiful and thus far I'm not aware of any footage that is remotely interesting (from amateurs at least)

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>These guys are so unscientific... Naaaaa, this is not my field, so I assume I'm missing some crucial pieces of information (which the paper apparently lack too, I agree on that). >A bright yellow meteor trail will saturate red and green, and then blue. Here I assume that they can do their job, but maybe you are right. Since they are doing their observations at two "meteor stations", maybe they know what they are tal…

They're not accounting for exposure levels anywhere that I can see, but to be honest I just skimmed it quickly looking for the expected formulas. It's easy to write garbage in the style of a scientific paper. Use LaTeX, the right fonts, layout, and tone and most people will immediately stop questioning the content. Pepper it with formulas and it starts to look like wisdom delivered by serious men in white lab coats.…

Absolutely 100% agree with you on how the calibration could be done and that the methods seems sloppy. There are lots of implicit assumptions (but maybe the paper is less lacking for those people doing similar jobs).

The way I interpreted the pre-print:

- They optimized the capture for very fast moving objects (and large FOVs? Maybe using a spectrophotometer is not as straightforward as it seems)

- They are making estimates more than precise measurements, using error bars that are "good enough" for them, for the specific domain and taking into consideration the constraints given by the assumptions and the equipment. Not that I see those errors bars, though :D

- Now that I'm re-reading: ...Frames were recorded using the ser format with 14 and 16 bits... (ser is an astronomical file format)

- Paper's exposition could be better

- They are not building the JWST. They are doing something like lambertian reflectance when you are asking for global illumination. Let's wait for (the negative results of) NASA's study. I share your skepticism btw, not a believer.

Just saying that they are not using Photoshop. The paper is lacking in details though, that's uncontroversial.

Been a pleasure talking with you, have a nice day!

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#63

Funny enough I was just reading the book "In Plain Sight" [1] before I flipped over to hacker news. It's a book about the serious investigation into UAPs by various governments, and is heavily sourced, with often times a half dozen references per page, many official and declassified sources. It's hard to come out of reading it without being strongly convinced that these UAP are not of human or natural origin. [1] htt…

>Edit: really curious if any of the downvoters could mention their rationale. Unless Elon tweets about this or VCs start funding UFO startups, average programmer is gonna say BS on anything that challenges the status quo especially in ideology department.

Personally, I 100% believe that UFOs and alien life both exist. After all, it would be hubris of the highest order to claim that we could identify every aerial visual phenomenon. And I find it extremely hard to believe that in the vastness of the universe, this infinitesimal speck we live on is the only place that the thing we call "life" exists. What I don't believe is that UFOs and aliens are connected, or that aliens routinely visit this planet.

First of all, if aliens did visit this planet, why here? There have to be many more interesting planets to go look at than Earth. If they stumbled on this planet by accident at some point, why would they bother to come back? Even if there aren't more interesting places, what's the probability that an alien being could even breathe the air here? I'm not willing to go full on Signs and speculate that contact with water might be deadly to them, but it's pretty reasonable to guess that aliens would have evolved in places with significantly different atmospheres than Earth has.

And, of course, none of this even touches on the vast distances in interstellar space and the level of technology that it would take to come here. It's certainly conceivable that aliens who are 5 million years ahead of us in societal development might have such technology, but how probable is it? And if they had that level of technology, why not just send a stealthy probe with the alien equivalent of a Really Damn Big Telescope(tm) and park it somewhere out in the asteroid belt if they're that interested in the antics of 7.7 billion primitive bipeds? Nothing really seems to add up for me in the direction of "aliens visit the Earth frequently and UFOs are evidence of those visitations."

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#64
post #50

As Mick West suggests, unless you can rule out things like insects flying past the camera, then further proof is necessary.

Did you read the paper?

Show me where they discuss sources of error - as a paper it's poorly written, I mean what kind of academic whacks this into an abstract and decides it's OK.

"We present a broad range of UAPs. We see them everywhere."

Everywhere? In the cupboard at home? In the local movie theatre?

Nowhere they discuss sources of error - it's a description of their setup, and then a straight dive into here's a taxonomy of all the UAPs. Plus, there's not enough there to reproduce their rig if indeed UAPs are "everywhere".

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#65
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> really curious if any of the downvoters could mention their rationale. Not downvoting, but I used to be a huge "UFO fan" around the ages of 8-11. I read book after book, all breathlessly outlining the "reams of evidence" available. I watched documentaries on television, saw UFO topics covered in the newspaper, and I had a shelf full of books all in agreement. Must be true, right? Except that even as young child I s…

A lot of UFO videos seem to be some kind of optical effect. The object rotates exactly in tune to when the HUD shows that the camera is rotating. The object suddenly zips away as soon as the HUD shows that the camera has suddenly stopped rotating to track the object. You see these obvious things in some of the most famously regularly brought up videos like the Tic Tac and Gimbal UFO videos, and almost nobody picks up…

How do you explain the visual confirmation by the pilots as well as the objects showing up on radar? It's fine to be skeptical but don't be so dismissive when you yourself are leaving out important details that negate your claim.

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#66
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be covered by the zoo hypotheses[1] I think. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoo_hypothesis

The ZOO hypothesis is uncannily attractive, because it a) sort-of humbles our egos and b) would actually be plausible even within humanity itself. If we discovered another human civilization with a living and technological standard of Europe of 1022 AD, we would be able to keep an eye on them without revealing ourselves much. An occassional slip-up would be possible (a crashed drone), but most of the time, we would b…

> 100 million years

That's a lot of evolution, considering mammals is barely that old.

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#67

Reason to be skeptical: For the last 10 years (?) or so most everybody has a mobile phone with high-quality camera in it and most people carry their phone with them all the time. Shouldn't that mean that the quality and quantity of UFO evidence should have exploded since about 10-15 years ago? But I haven't seen any articles about how much more and how much better quality UFO evidence we have now that anybody whose s…

Do this as an execerise:

Take your phone outside, find an airplane. Try to take a photo.

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> really curious if any of the downvoters could mention their rationale. Not downvoting, but I used to be a huge "UFO fan" around the ages of 8-11. I read book after book, all breathlessly outlining the "reams of evidence" available. I watched documentaries on television, saw UFO topics covered in the newspaper, and I had a shelf full of books all in agreement. Must be true, right? Except that even as young child I s…

> Except that even as young child I started noticing that all of the photos were blurry. All of them. Focus dispels UFOs just like turning on the light dispels the monster in the bedroom. Not exactly. Jacques Vallée and others have spent a lot of time addressing the question of why UFO photos are always blurry and out of focus. His ideas about it are fascinating. There’s also a lot of photos that aren’t blurry, such…

> 1971 Cote UFO

That could be anything. Damage to the film negative is a simple explanation!

Any single picture is basically just fan-art. I and many others with a reasonable level of scepticism wouldn't accept anything other than the same UFO or "design" of UFO turning up in many photos, ideally from some sort of scientific sky survey array run by non-UFO-fanatic astronomer types.

In fact, several such survey systems are being built right now, and a few are already operational.

The operational ones have not found anything.

Strange, isn't it that the better the quality of the survey, the less likely UFOs are to turn up in the data?

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Edit: really curious if any of the downvoters could mention their rationale. Unless Elon tweets about this or VCs start funding UFO startups, average programmer is gonna say BS on anything that challenges the status quo especially in ideology department.

Personally, I 100% believe that UFOs and alien life both exist. After all, it would be hubris of the highest order to claim that we could identify every aerial visual phenomenon. And I find it extremely hard to believe that in the vastness of the universe, this infinitesimal speck we live on is the only place that the thing we call "life" exists. What I don't believe is that UFOs and aliens are connected, or that ali…

1- Those "aliens" and UAPs could be terrestrial. Imagine an underwater civilization evolved independently from humans in a time scale much larger than our written history.

2- They can have all sorts of agendas. There are discussions that they have visited or interacted with human civilization since thousands of years ago. They may want to affect the course of our development for example.

Re: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Edit: really curious if any of the downvoters could mention their rationale. Unless Elon tweets about this or VCs start funding UFO startups, average programmer is gonna say BS on anything that challenges the status quo especially in ideology department.

Personally, I 100% believe that UFOs and alien life both exist. After all, it would be hubris of the highest order to claim that we could identify every aerial visual phenomenon. And I find it extremely hard to believe that in the vastness of the universe, this infinitesimal speck we live on is the only place that the thing we call "life" exists. What I don't believe is that UFOs and aliens are connected, or that ali…

> First of all, if aliens did visit this planet, why here? There have to be many more interesting planets to go look at than Earth. If they stumbled on this planet by accident at some point, why would they bother to come back?

Where does this idea come from that we are "uninteresting" or less interesting than other places? Also why would these advanced beings not be able to canvas the entire galaxy? What if other places are more interesting, and teaming with alien craft, like Yellowstone is teaming with tourists, and we just see the occasional craft because we are a backwater.

> Even if there aren't more interesting places, what's the probability that an alien being could even breathe the air here? I'm not willing to go full on Signs and speculate that contact with water might be deadly to them, but it's pretty reasonable to guess that aliens would have evolved in places with significantly different atmospheres than Earth has.

Why does that matter? We can't breath in the ocean or space but we explore there.

> And, of course, none of this even touches on the vast distances in interstellar space and the level of technology that it would take to come here. It's certainly conceivable that aliens who are 5 million years ahead of us in societal development might have such technology, but how probable is it?

We have no idea whether it's possible or probable, and thus we also have no idea whether it's impossible or improbable.

> And if they had that level of technology, why not just send a stealthy probe with the alien equivalent of a Really Damn Big Telescope(tm) and park it somewhere out in the asteroid belt if they're that interested in the antics of 7.7 billion primitive bipeds? Nothing really seems to add up for me in the direction of "aliens visit the Earth frequently and UFOs are evidence of those visitations."

Why do we send people in person into the jungle to monitor animals instead of just cameras to record everything remotely? Why do people go to Yellowstone to see the sites instead of just looking at pictures?

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