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Risk Everything (2007)

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Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#61

Post by oarabbus_ »

ivalm wrote: post #37
oarabbus_ wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>(If death truly had negative infinity utility, it would overpower the benefit of everything and we couldn't do anything.) It's true death has utility in an economic sense, as one needs not look further than the funeral/death care industry to find utility. But if we are talking about death of the self, the negative infinite utility claim seems more convincing than the non-negative-infinite one. In fact, negative infi…

True negative infinities, even discounted, are still infinite, so not very useful as it makes all trajectories equal (negatively infinite).

I agree the characterization isn't very useful, as you point out - but that's the tricky thing with infinit(ies), isn't it? When discussing human behavior and introducing an infinity concept, the final result is the same for all people in all cases.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#63

Post by adrianN »

misja111 wrote: post #52
nme01 wrote: post #12

I see a problem with risking everything that is if your goal is to either make it to the top or make it to the bottom, then risking it all is the way to go. Yet, that’s a poor long-term strategy. Eventually risk will realize and you’ll lose it all.

But eventually every one of use will lose it all; we are all mortals. So shouldn't we try to maximize happiness while we are alive? Risking it all could make sense if it leads to lots of happiness if it works out. It reminds me of the saying, 'better to live one year as a lion than ten years as a sheep'

If maximizing expected happiness is the goal then aiming for something achievable with low risk, e.g. stable middle class life, is probably a better strategy than risking everything on a moonshot.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#64

Post by nme01 »

abm53 wrote: post #47
nme01 wrote: post #12

I see a problem with risking everything that is if your goal is to either make it to the top or make it to the bottom, then risking it all is the way to go. Yet, that’s a poor long-term strategy. Eventually risk will realize and you’ll lose it all.

Perhaps more realistic is to approximately Kelly-bet your way through life.

Exactly what I had in mind. Just to make my point more understandable: if I own an apartment and I pursue my dream and sell it so that I can invest it in my startup, that’s risking it all. Does such strategy have a positive outcome in the long run (even if by outcome we only mean happiness however it’s measured)? I doubt that.

Bringing down risk taking to a simple “risk it all” is a trivia that is maybe inspiring but naive.

What’s worse, those kinds of strategies are appealing to people mostly because of survivorship bias: one hears inspiring stories from those who risked it all and made it to the top but rarely from those who loosed it all (those don’t sell too well).

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#65

Post by boffinism »

"But it dawns on me that luck is just the product of all these other qualities"

This, to me, highlights the flaw in the whole article. They nearly died. They were saved by a chance encounter with a friendly boat. This encounter was SO OBVIOUSLY not a product of their own motivation, boldness or any of the rest of that guff.

This is the worst form of survivor bias.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#66

Post by buro9 »

I had to do this when young... I was homeless, rough sleeping. Honestly... it's a terrible piece of advice.

Those risking everything have no other choice.

If you're reading this person's blog post, if you're on HN... you probably have a choice, and you probably aren't "risking everything". I cannot imagine anyone on here actually choosing to potentially have nothing at all, no network, no funds, no assets, no nothing... and I do not believe the author of the article would either.

I am reminded (again) of this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076

> Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something.

> Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on.

> Rich kids can afford many throws. If they want to, they can try over and over and over again until they hit something and feel good about themselves. Some keep going until they hit the center bullseye, then they give speeches or write blog posts about "meritocracy" and the salutary effects of hard work.

> Poor kids aren't visiting the carnival. They're the ones working it.

Only the privileged get to choose what to risk... and that risk isn't as real as when there was no choice. Those who know that would never choose it.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#67

Post by s5300 »

noname123 wrote: post #42
googlryas wrote: post #3

I take objection to this line: > When I share this story with other sailors, they are universally aghast that we helped these refugees. I wonder what kind of sailors they are conversing with, if at all.

I have a far less interesting and infinitely less daring story (but that is my response to the author's contention, "risk everything" and your question "why people are aghast"). When I was young in my mid 20's, I've just moved to a hip and hipster neighborhood of a college town lively with grad students, artists and musicians and comics; But I was just a lonely and geeky guy lookin' to fit in and meet and make new fr…

The fact this tale ended up on HN is in no way surprising to me.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#68

Post by jstummbillig »

misja111 wrote: post #52
nme01 wrote: post #12

I see a problem with risking everything that is if your goal is to either make it to the top or make it to the bottom, then risking it all is the way to go. Yet, that’s a poor long-term strategy. Eventually risk will realize and you’ll lose it all.

But eventually every one of use will lose it all; we are all mortals. So shouldn't we try to maximize happiness while we are alive? Risking it all could make sense if it leads to lots of happiness if it works out. It reminds me of the saying, 'better to live one year as a lion than ten years as a sheep'

Risking everything every time is most certainly not the way to maximize aggregate happiness.

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#69

Post by pavlov »

A reminder that this story plays out dozens of times every day in the Mediterranean right now.

42,549 irregular border crossings were reported in July 2022 on the Central Mediterranean route [1]. The number of those who drowned will never be known.

Many of these Africans who dare to cross the sea have already travelled for weeks or months and survived the Sahara. They are not celebrated as risktakers, though. Unlike this article, nobody sings odes to the boldness, inventiveness, motivation, honor and leadership qualities of the African migrant. Maybe they should.

[1] https://frontex.europa.eu/media-centre/news/news-release/eu-...

Re: Risk Everything (2007)

#70

Post by _zamorano_ »

buro9 wrote: post #66

I had to do this when young... I was homeless, rough sleeping. Honestly... it's a terrible piece of advice. Those risking everything have no other choice. If you're reading this person's blog post, if you're on HN... you probably have a choice, and you probably aren't "risking everything". I cannot imagine anyone on here actually choosing to potentially have nothing at all, no network, no funds, no assets, no nothing…

Daniel Kahneman, in his book thinking fast and slow, has a really good insight on why people in bad situations keep taking bad choices.

Google "The fourfold pattern". Basically, he states that there's a cognitive bias where people in situations where a poor outcome is likely to happen, tend to risk too much, and not settle for a bad (but better) outcome that what they already have.

If they kept compounding these "bad but better choices", they might have a chance.

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