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An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

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Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#61

Post by phkahler »

itza1 wrote: post #28

It’s actually closer to every 500 years at the latitude Seattle and Portland are at. The 300 year figure only applies to the southern Oregon and Northern California portion of the fault, and is based on turbidities and controversial. Still, this is an under-appreciated risk of living in the northwest. There’s plenty of societies living in subduction zones across the planet. But few with as little awareness of their f…

>> It’s actually closer to every 500 years at the latitude Seattle and Portland are at.

Well that would be about every other time the southern end goes. In that case it's still overdue for the big one, but 270 years to go for the next very big one.

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#62

Post by phkahler »

bee_rider wrote: post #50
xwowsersx wrote: post #30

I think the year of publication of this article — 2015 — should be in the title, no?

It is not a big difference in geological time.

>> It is not a big difference in geological time.

When it was published we were 29.6 percent past the 243 year average cycle time. Now we are more than 32 percent past. No, it's not a big difference but we are meaningfully further along than when it was written ;-)

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#63

Post by tablespoon »

gradschool wrote: post #53

I don't know how scientifically reliable this article is, but it gives me an idea. Could tsunami avoidance be an ideal use case for a jet pack? It doesn't need a lot of altitude or more than a few minutes of flight time, just easy rapid deployment without an airstrip. Some startup should be all over this. A combined package with an alarm triggered by an ultrasonic sensor would make a great sales pitch to well heeled…

I agree, because I really want to see some true-believer startup enthusiast going about their normal day with 100lbs of jetpack on their back, insisting it will be the next big thing.

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#64

Post by Fatnino »

shagie wrote: post #55
rootusrootus wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in Oregon, I-5 is 50 miles away from the coast and separated from it by a small mountain range. I don't think we're too worried about tsunamis getting all the way to I-5. Definitely will get to Highway 101 in some spots, however. But a lot of the coastline is tall enough that you can usually find a safe place nearby if a tsunami warning sounds.

> But a lot of the coastline is tall enough that you can usually find a safe place nearby if a tsunami warning sounds. I recall driving US-101 in Oregon some years back and kept seeing "Tsunami evacuation route" signs. https://www.oregon.gov/oem/Documents/Tsunami_Evacuation_Sign...

We have those all along the Pacific coast.

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#65

Post by Fatnino »

shagie wrote: post #58
PrairieFire wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

separately, there’s risk from lahars from mt. Baker and mt. Rainier. Catastrophic Baker lahars could potentially bury even Renton based on some estimates.

Don't forget Mt. Hood. The Sandy River is named as such because of a lahar from a decade prior. Eruption-related lahars and sedimentation response downstream of Mount Hood: Field guide to volcaniclastic deposits along the Sandy River, Oregon -- https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr/file-59/Pierson%20e... > The Sandy River was originally named the Quicksand River by Lewis and Clark in 1805 (Moulton and Dunlay, 1990…

You have transposed a 0 and an 8 and brought the Lewis and Clark expedition 720 years into its past.

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#66

Post by spookthesunset »

DrBazza wrote: post #57
washbrain wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AWS has lots of engineers in Seattle, but control plane is distributed. I'd personally expect a long delay in getting any fixes to things, but that many sites would be just fine.

But are all the buildings on the MS campus, for example, "built to code"? (that's the US phrase isn't it). Do we reasonably expect most, let's say, post-80s buildings to survive a magnitude 9+?

Most of the buildings that are more than a few stories tall on that campus are definitely build to modern-ish code. They’ve been slowing replacing the original stack with new office buildings.

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#67

Post by shagie »

Fatnino wrote: post #65
shagie wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget Mt. Hood. The Sandy River is named as such because of a lahar from a decade prior. Eruption-related lahars and sedimentation response downstream of Mount Hood: Field guide to volcaniclastic deposits along the Sandy River, Oregon -- https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr/file-59/Pierson%20e... > The Sandy River was originally named the Quicksand River by Lewis and Clark in 1805 (Moulton and Dunlay, 1990…

You have transposed a 0 and an 8 and brought the Lewis and Clark expedition 720 years into its past.

Thank you - corrected. For some reason that PDF didn't want to copy and paste.

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#68

Post by plipshevanel »

cronix wrote: post #46

Nick Zentner of Central Washington University did a really good talk about this article and some of it seems overblown, specifically the "west of I5 will be toast." They've placed GPS sensors throuout the PNW and one of the more interesting things is that Oregon and Washingtons land is working in a spiral, and the land is moving in a circular pattern. Also that the hot spot that creates Yellowstone used to be off the…

I stumbled across one of Nick's Volcano lectures on Youtube about a year ago and was unexpectedly captivated to watch the entire thing, which lasted about an hour! As someone who has always held an interest in Geology and Deep History, I really appreciate his efforts to make his University content available to the public.

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#69

Post by cronix »

plipshevanel wrote: post #68
cronix wrote: post #46

Nick Zentner of Central Washington University did a really good talk about this article and some of it seems overblown, specifically the "west of I5 will be toast." They've placed GPS sensors throuout the PNW and one of the more interesting things is that Oregon and Washingtons land is working in a spiral, and the land is moving in a circular pattern. Also that the hot spot that creates Yellowstone used to be off the…

I stumbled across one of Nick's Volcano lectures on Youtube about a year ago and was unexpectedly captivated to watch the entire thing, which lasted about an hour! As someone who has always held an interest in Geology and Deep History, I really appreciate his efforts to make his University content available to the public.

Yes, I should have said more about the channel. If only we could all have teachers who are so enthusiastic and makes topics very interesting and easy to follow! All of his content is very good and captivating. If anyone is interested in pacific northwest geology, I'd highly recommend watching more of his stuff. He also has his own personal channel separate from CWU here and still making new content: https://www.youtube.com/user/GeologyNick

Re: An earthquake could destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest (2015)

#70

Post by blueprint »

cronix wrote: post #46

Nick Zentner of Central Washington University did a really good talk about this article and some of it seems overblown, specifically the "west of I5 will be toast." They've placed GPS sensors throuout the PNW and one of the more interesting things is that Oregon and Washingtons land is working in a spiral, and the land is moving in a circular pattern. Also that the hot spot that creates Yellowstone used to be off the…

I have seen many of his talks. that statement about west of i95 being toast is not incorrect. He made a very obvious point of the fact the energy released by this quake will be nearly 3 orders of magnitude greater than a 7. Coastline drops 30' and shifts 50'. 250 miles inland everything will move a foot still. do you have any idea how much fire, flooding, and death there will be?
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