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Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

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Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#61
I think there will be a civil war. But I think it will be more of a "cold" civil war with flashes of loosely coordinated and unsanctioned mob violence.

Edit: Dreher has an excellent book called "Live not by Lies", that explains a theory of soft totalitarianism. Combined with the devestating power of weapons, the reluctance to use them, the powerful surveillance state, and the strong desire to live in comfort means that we might not see a conventional civil war.

As an example: gun owners largely fear getting raided in the night and a violent standoff like Ruby Ridge. I suspect much more likely, they will get a call from CPS notifying their children are being held until investigators can confirm the reports of firearms in the house -- or perhaps credit cards and finances being shut down. Why go for a risky confrontation when you can bring someone to their knees with a button push?

If there is a cold civil war, I expect it will be waged asymmetrically instead of conventionally.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#64
post #36

Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"

Yeah. I guess it's supposed to imply a red vs blue state conflict. Proud Boys versus Antifa fighting in the streets! MSNBC fans firing tear gas at Tucker Carlson viewers! Reylo shippers versus original trilogy fans, hitting each other with plastic lightsabers! What's supposed to happen? Texas is going to invade California?

First Texas would have to fight the other half of Texas, its not like whole states would just join a revolution.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#65

One of the biggest problems is that most current gun violence doesn't necessarily represent any sort of targeted pattern (i.e. shooting up a political convention or party headquarters). It's malls and schools because that's such an easy way to create shock and awe. If we do wind up in some sort of civil conflict, I imagine it will look a lot like Ireland from the 60's to the 90's, which was by no means a good time.[0…

Several of the recent shooting involved white supremacists targeting minorities, so it's not entirely untargeted.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#66

Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"

You don't want to fix/improve the society to suit your preferences through existing democratic and legal mechanisms, so you decide destroying the opposition via violence/intimidation is easier.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#67
A full-blown civil war, circa 1800s? Probably not, although a growing number of fascist types are fantasizing about it and planning for it.

More frequent and extreme episodes of violent civil unrest? Yes. I think it's going to get worse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2022/03/08/they-are-...

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#68
It will probably more like an insurrection. The more Trumpian states will choose to ignore the Federal government in various ways, especially regarding election laws. Opportunistic politicians will take advantage of this to consolidate power to the extent elections become a formality. Well-armed Trumpians will be targeted at specific people, places and events, and it will work. Meanwhile, police services, national guard and military will be of dubious effectiveness given that many in their ranks are themselves Trumpians.

It is truly remarkable how much damage a bad faith president can do to a democracy. But honestly, I wonder that he didn't do much more damage. It's almost incredible to me that we're in as good of shape as we are right now; the fact that it's even possible that Trump could be arrested for insurrection is a very hopeful sign. This has all been a great test of our spirit, and I think we get a strong "B".

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#70
post #34

Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"

And between where? Every state has strong red and blue regions. A second "civil war" is more likely to be terrorist campaigns like the IRA conducted rather than a war like the one the that northern states fought against southern states a century and a half ago.

It would be a civil war as long as there is a part of the country that's controlled by one side and another part that is controlled by the other side. Doesn't have to align with current state borders.
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