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What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

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Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#61

Post by andai »

theptip wrote: post #45

I think the important point is not whether this outbreak was in fact a lab leak, but that it is entirely plausible due to gain-of-function research. Even if this one wasn’t a lab leak, the next one very well could be. The risk/reward profile of that sort of research is insanely unfavorable.

Fun fact, Covid did leak from a Chinese lab, but it was in December 2021:

>A lab worker was bitten and infected by a mouse infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant at a high-biosecurity facility in Taipei.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#62

Post by sumy23 »

NationalPark wrote: post #36
throwawaymaths wrote: post #2

The lab-leak hypothesis is meta-scientific. When it was first tossed around, the lab leak hypothesis generated two predictions: 1. We would find evidence that someone was doing experiments on furin cleavage sites in coronaviruses. 2. We would find that the furin cleavage site matched a known sequence. We did not find 2, which should have been easy to find. Eventually, we found 1, since a rejected DARPA grant proposal…

Can you link some sources here? Call me skeptical, but if the evidence is as convincing as you make it sound, then it implies a pretty widespread conspiracy among experts (of many countries and affiliations) who would understand the implications yet are deliberately mis-communicating via their podcasts, news appearances, papers in famous journals, etc. Are there any papers published on this or is it just in the book…

This article from Vanity Fair does a good job collection the circumstantial evidence surrounding the lab leak theory: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/the-virus-hunting-no...

The tl;dr is that there is a group called EcoHealth Alliance that was working with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) making novel coronaviruses by modifying the furin cleavage site of coronaviruses taken from bats. The WIV (along with EcoHealth Alliance and also potentially the Chinese military) was also making chimeric viruses from the viruses responsible for SARS and MERS. They were then using these viruses to infect "humanized" mice (mice with human lung tissue). The head of EcoHealth Alliance, Peter Daszak, was one of the first to denounce the possibility of a lab leak (without disclosing the work he was doing at WIV of course). Daszak was later kicked off the Lancet’s COVID-19 commission because he refused to share old progress reports on the work he was funding at WIV.

All of this evidence is circumstantial, but it's really a bit suspicious that this outbreak started just a few kilometers where this exact type of virus was being created.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#63

Post by specialp »

fguerraz wrote: post #31

It's not that the origin story is not important, it's not that people don't care, it's that it is a distraction. It doesn't help solve the crisis. The article makes the comparison with a nuclear bomb. This is a bad comparison. If we were attacked by a sentient creature, we could reason with it and mitigate further damage or escalation. In the case of a virus, it's good to know to prevent future pandemics maybe, and t…

Finding the root cause of an unprecedented disaster might not reverse the history of that disaster, but it would help prevent future similar disasters. Now we are clearly aware of the costs. It isn't a distraction to look into the cause of a disaster as we are able as a society to work on many different problems at the same time.

It does help with our current situation of being very vulnerable to highly contagious respiratory diseases. COVID is probably never going away. To have another one join if this could have been prevented would be far worse for us.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#64

Post by affgrff »

There is an episode of Lex Fridman's Podcast with Jamie Metzl on the topic: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K78jqx9fx2I Metzl is highly confident of a lab-leak. However, lab-leak doesn't require that the virus has been tampered with and I somewhat agree that is important to know if the virus escaped due to inadequate lab safety.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#65

Post by kgwgk »

ricardobayes wrote: post #24

When the first sentence is factually incorrect, it's tough to read on. The UK doesn't have 200k cases a day, it's less than a tenth of that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/24/covid-infectio...

"Overall, it is estimated 1.7 million people in private households across the UK had the virus last week – the highest figure since the end of April."

With less than 20k cases per day you would need to accumulate them for 3 months to get 1.7 million cases.

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#66

Post by [deleted] »

stetrain wrote: post #12

I think understanding the origin is important, but I also understand why it wasn't a media fixation during the pandemic itself. 1) Understanding the origin doesn't change the consequences or response to the pandemic 2) Unlike the nuclear analogy in the article, pandemic virus outbreaks happen naturally, and fairly frequently. Combined with the huge increase in global travel, when one does happen it can be around the…

[deleted]

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#67

Post by [deleted] »

sumy23 wrote: post #62
NationalPark wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you link some sources here? Call me skeptical, but if the evidence is as convincing as you make it sound, then it implies a pretty widespread conspiracy among experts (of many countries and affiliations) who would understand the implications yet are deliberately mis-communicating via their podcasts, news appearances, papers in famous journals, etc. Are there any papers published on this or is it just in the book…

This article from Vanity Fair does a good job collection the circumstantial evidence surrounding the lab leak theory: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/the-virus-hunting-no... The tl;dr is that there is a group called EcoHealth Alliance that was working with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) making novel coronaviruses by modifying the furin cleavage site of coronaviruses taken from bats. The WIV (along with…

[deleted]

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#69

Post by EA_itsinthegame »

azekai wrote: post #49
theptip wrote: post #45

I think the important point is not whether this outbreak was in fact a lab leak, but that it is entirely plausible due to gain-of-function research. Even if this one wasn’t a lab leak, the next one very well could be. The risk/reward profile of that sort of research is insanely unfavorable.

This is the conversation we need to have, on an international level.

When Australia proposed an international investigation into the origins, in direct response, China started cyber attacks, resentencing Australian prisoners to death, and used economic warfare.

This seems like a conversation we can not have, if China has any say in it. And for a natural origin spillover event, it sure wants to have its say...

Re: What happened to the lab-leak hypothesis?

#70

Post by [deleted] »

pphysch wrote: post #37
buttocks wrote: post #5

Quoted post unavailable.

Weird non-sequitor. Chinese people don't obsess over and celebrate those sad days just like American people don't obsess over and celebrate the innumerable crises and human rights abuses of their own, say, the MOVE bombing. A little empathy goes a long way.

[deleted]
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