Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

coindesk.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 83 posts

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#61

Post by tarsinge »

bathory wrote: post #52
ekianjo wrote: post #46

Funny nobody talks about the collapse of the stock market here on HN.

Because: a.) we are not at pre-corona levels yet and b.) most of the highly valued companies which are publicly tradable will continue to provide value to the world or their customers, contrary to the crypto crap.

Regarding b) this is irrelevant to the stock market which is a secondary market used mostly for speculation. Trading company stock after IPO and not for active governance has no impact on the company itself and the economy. Company results are just a narrative for speculation between traders.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#62

Post by blablabla123 »

vmurthy wrote: post #59

When you see people you think are not as smart as you get rich via crypto, it is very natural to think that you should go at it, too. Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. There will be stories, there will be wondrous companies that seem to grow magically and yet what lies beneath is most critical. Cash flow and the embedded estimate in the market cap vis-a-vis this cas…

True... Also in the stock trading community I think crypto has always been seen with suspicion if not even as pure pump and dump.

(Although the original goals seem interesting, speaking of an inflation defying currency. It's hard to imagine the problem wouldn't pop out elsewhere)

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#63

Post by [deleted] »

wil421 wrote: post #45
pearjuice wrote: post #31

Everything seems to be underperforming. Most tech stocks are at their 2020 levels or headed towards it. Almost all tech IPOs in the last year are down. With everything being down, how is Bitcoin's performance an outlier?

Tech stocks are down about %40ish and some IPOs I tracked are half or less. Bitcoin has gone down from $70k to $20k in a year, that’s close to 350%. Not to mention it’s down 500% since the $100k high.

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#64

Post by redox99 »

vmurthy wrote: post #59

When you see people you think are not as smart as you get rich via crypto, it is very natural to think that you should go at it, too. Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. There will be stories, there will be wondrous companies that seem to grow magically and yet what lies beneath is most critical. Cash flow and the embedded estimate in the market cap vis-a-vis this cas…

> Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns.

Fortunately in what sense? You're talking as if BTC was worth nothing. 19K is still a really good price if you zoom out.

I understand young people whose first investment was BTC 1 year ago and bought at 60k and are -70%. But if you have been investing for 10+ years as you mention then there's nothing fortunate about not having bought BTC.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#65

Post by srean »

redox99 wrote: post #64
vmurthy wrote: post #59

When you see people you think are not as smart as you get rich via crypto, it is very natural to think that you should go at it, too. Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. There will be stories, there will be wondrous companies that seem to grow magically and yet what lies beneath is most critical. Cash flow and the embedded estimate in the market cap vis-a-vis this cas…

> Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. Fortunately in what sense? You're talking as if BTC was worth nothing. 19K is still a really good price if you zoom out. I understand young people whose first investment was BTC 1 year ago and bought at 60k and are -70%. But if you have been investing for 10+ years as you mention then there's nothing fortunate about not having bou…

If one had invested in the right lottery ticket that too would fetch a pretty good price.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#66

Post by saurik »

bathory wrote: post #52
ekianjo wrote: post #46

Funny nobody talks about the collapse of the stock market here on HN.

Because: a.) we are not at pre-corona levels yet and b.) most of the highly valued companies which are publicly tradable will continue to provide value to the world or their customers, contrary to the crypto crap.

The price of Bitcoin in May of 2020 was under $10k.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#67

Post by imustbeevil »

redox99 wrote: post #64
vmurthy wrote: post #59

When you see people you think are not as smart as you get rich via crypto, it is very natural to think that you should go at it, too. Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. There will be stories, there will be wondrous companies that seem to grow magically and yet what lies beneath is most critical. Cash flow and the embedded estimate in the market cap vis-a-vis this cas…

> Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. Fortunately in what sense? You're talking as if BTC was worth nothing. 19K is still a really good price if you zoom out. I understand young people whose first investment was BTC 1 year ago and bought at 60k and are -70%. But if you have been investing for 10+ years as you mention then there's nothing fortunate about not having bou…

The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down.

Yes, you could have bought Amazon stock in 2001. But if you're trying to judge rational investment strategy, 3 years of most people losing money sounds like a pretty significant figure.

For reference, the S&P (boring market index) 3 year return is +50%.

https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/what%27s+the+median+price...

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_3_year_return

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#68

Post by redox99 »

srean wrote: post #65
redox99 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. Fortunately in what sense? You're talking as if BTC was worth nothing. 19K is still a really good price if you zoom out. I understand young people whose first investment was BTC 1 year ago and bought at 60k and are -70%. But if you have been investing for 10+ years as you mention then there's nothing fortunate about not having bou…

If one had invested in the right lottery ticket that too would fetch a pretty good price.

Are you implying that Bitcoin only had a 1 in a thousand or 1 in a million chance of it's price blowing up, and it got lucky? As in, the outcome comes out of pure randomness (think chaos theory)?

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#69

Post by bcrl »

mettamage wrote: post #16
kossTKR wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the ideals of crypto. What ideals?

Decentralization, currency outside the government (a bit of anarchy even :) ) Again, these are ideals . They are by no means met. The reality is a sad state of affairs, mostly, IMO.

Decentralized also means no centralized rules of law. I'm not sure we want the wealthy crypto whales running around enforcing their own idea of what laws should be. Sounds like a path towards crypto cartels acting like the drug cartels in Mexico killing anyone that wrongs them. I'll take mainstream western courts and law enforcement over that horrific future any day of the week.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k

#70

Post by redox99 »

imustbeevil wrote: post #67
redox99 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. Fortunately in what sense? You're talking as if BTC was worth nothing. 19K is still a really good price if you zoom out. I understand young people whose first investment was BTC 1 year ago and bought at 60k and are -70%. But if you have been investing for 10+ years as you mention then there's nothing fortunate about not having bou…

The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. Yes, you could have bought Amazon stock in 2001. But if you're trying to judge rational investment strategy, 3 years of most people losing money sounds like a pretty significant figure. For reference, the S&P (boring market index) 3 year return is +50%. https://www.statmuse.com/…

> The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down.

To be more specific there, the people that are down in that 3 year time range are only those that bought since DEC 2020 (so 1.5 years ago). But even if you ignore that, that doesn't sound bad at all.

It makes no sense to compare to the SP500, of course the 500 largest companies combined are less volatile. Keep in mind something like NASDAQ 100 took like 10 to 15 years to recover after dotcom, and even QQQ isn't comparable to something as volatile as crypto. I think something like TQQQ is the most comparable, and they overlap quite a bit.

But going back to what I was commenting, my point was that if I was a 10+ year investor as parent said, I would not feel fortunate about not having bought bitcoin throughout my years. Of course very recent years are different.

Post reply on HN