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Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

nationalgeographic.com

61–70 of 90 posts

Re: Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

#61

I watched a documentary about them ages ago where the demonstrated how rogue waves can form by natural processes as different directional (terminology most likely wrong) waves cross each other. Wish I could remember enough about it to post a link.

You might be thinking of “cross sea”: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_sea

Re: Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

#63
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but tide and wave models generally cover a much larger area, such as whole coastal area's and over larger time spans. An example of such a model would be: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN6CDaoMZ7U In the Netherlands this is used e.g. to determine when to close the storm surge barriers to protect the river delta area from flooding due to a tide+storm combination. In contrast, the Next Ocean product is meant to…

I wonder to what extent all the mathematical modeling can be replaced by modern run-of-the-mill data science techniques.

My guess would be: not that much. But I work in the field of numerical mathematics and computational physics, so I could have some bias. :-D

The more nuanced answer would be that taking the raw radar data as input to e.g. a neural network and train that to output the predicted timeseries of future ship motion is not feasible. It would take a giant network and too much compute to train for very unreliable results.

This problem consists of a lot of subproblems, most of which are pretty well understood. For example how to translate the 6-dof motion of a ship to the vertical displacement of a heli platform on that ship is just some simple coordinate transforms. You don't gain anything by including that in the neural net. Potentially some data science techniques could be useful to handle some of the less understood submodels. Sort of like it is done in CFD with NN as a turbulence model within an existing PDE solver.

Re: Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

#64
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but tide and wave models generally cover a much larger area, such as whole coastal area's and over larger time spans. An example of such a model would be: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN6CDaoMZ7U In the Netherlands this is used e.g. to determine when to close the storm surge barriers to protect the river delta area from flooding due to a tide+storm combination. In contrast, the Next Ocean product is meant to…

I wonder to what extent all the mathematical modeling can be replaced by modern run-of-the-mill data science techniques.

Other than the computational cost, why would you want to use stats when you have an analytic model right there?

Re: Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

#66

Surfers are very familiar with how two waves that come in different angles combine into a very high wave at the intersection. I really don't understand why monster waves seem so mysterious to scientists. I'm certain they happen all the time but no one is there to observe them except for the occasional unlucky sailor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wedge_(surfing)

I mean, there was just an article about how scientists discovered that worms travel after a rain, which is something I figured out when I was ten.

Science has a lot of blind spots. Surfers and children aren’t high on the list of people to consult or observe. Nor for a long time was folk medicine.

Re: Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

#67
Owned a 40 foot sailboat with 5+ feet of freeboard. Waves refract going around islands (lee side has weird waves even if less wind), through currents and over shoaling. The Strait of Juan de Fuca is sometimes referred to as Juan he Fuck You because of the "haystacks". You see them: "oh there was a haystack! did you see it?"

Ran into one once; two feet of green water rolled across the deck. And then it was gone.

Re: Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

#68
post #9

ESA satellites were used to find out more about rogue waves, and develop statistical models for prediction, shortly after they were first accurately measured in the 1990's. The program was known as MaxWave; https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/PubServices/2005pdfs/Rosenthal....

Thank you, sounds interesting! Another source: https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Ship-si...

Re: Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

#69
post #59
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That page completely locked up Chrome on my Pixel 4a.

Same here, Vivaldi on Pixel 3a. Plus a pay wall on the OP site. It would be nice to participate in the conversation.

Fwiw, it works in Firefox on Android.

Re: Enormous ‘rogue waves’ can appear out of nowhere

#70

This article is hard to read, like most media outlets these days. Why do they run so many scripts, that call other scripts, that call other scripts...? Here's the nutshell anyway, via Firefox + NoScript + Ublock Origin and selectively blocking certain elements: > "Scientists have since figured out that unlike tsunamis, which are large waves produced by a sudden displacement of water from an event such as an earthquak…

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