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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#61

Post by sremani »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #37
deepnotderp wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s because the market calculates a high probability of an Intel implosion

With an engineer on the helm, rehiring big names in the field, opening more fabs, and having access to TSMC's newest node over AMD[1].. it seems unlikely. [1] https://www.extremetech.com/computing/334897-amd-might-have-...

Intel has to do next 4 years what it failed to do for the past 8 years and the complexity of execution in the space is getting harder and hander. Also, they are fighting on multiple fronts, upstarts in GPU, write-offs on AI hardware, Losing share of x86 with ARM et al. Losing share in x86 to AMD, having to rely on TSMC for advanced chips. Also, some bright spots where, they are opening up their foundries for design firms etc.

Over all, Intel has to do perfect execution and we did not fully talk about Apple, Amazon, Microsoft designing their own chips and using Intel's competition for fabbing them. They are in a tough spot, but if any company can come out of it winning, its Intel. They have done it before.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#62

Post by gitfan86 »

ben_w wrote: post #13
freeqaz wrote: post #6

A lot of these companies have very reasonable P/E ratios now. Microsoft is sitting at around 27, Apple 25, and Facebook 15. None of those strike me as "inflated". Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Are investors just panicking?

Is 20-25 really normal? I thought it was more like 5-15?

A PE of 5 on a company that would grow or contract 0% for the next 100 years would be able to pay a 20% dividend for the next 100 years.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#63

Post by diob »

MAGZine wrote: post #16
avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

the fact that you stopped to ask those questions makes me think that you're at minimum, an above average developer. caring about the business and its fundamentals is important beyond just slinging code.

It also comes from feeling financially secure enough to be comfortable asking those questions. Early in my career I wouldn't have, but at this point I have enough money that I can afford to be more discerning.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#64

Post by debacle »

prohobo wrote: post #21

People said this was the "best time ever to get funding" for a startup. I disagree. In my view, it was the best time ever if you played a particular game and had the right connections. I pitched an idea to a VC, which I had a prototype for, looking for $100k. He liked it but wouldn't fund because I didn't have a solid business plan. Fair enough, I need to find a business partner. But then he told me something about h…

If you consider VCs as brokers rather than investors, it makes sense. There's a lot more dumb money looking to invest in crypto.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#65

Post by 300bps »

qeternity wrote: post #11
freeqaz wrote: post #6

A lot of these companies have very reasonable P/E ratios now. Microsoft is sitting at around 27, Apple 25, and Facebook 15. None of those strike me as "inflated". Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Are investors just panicking?

> Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Presuming your experience in equities markets is within the last decade... Historical average is more like 15 for SPX.

Agreed and not only that but he needs to take into consideration forward look P/E whereas he’s looking at trailing P/E.

If interest rates go up, everyone is surmising that tech stocks that benefit from lower interest rates will not be as profitable.

And of course if we have a recession…

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#66

Post by BurningFrog »

danielvaughn wrote: post #31
MAGZine wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the fact that you stopped to ask those questions makes me think that you're at minimum, an above average developer. caring about the business and its fundamentals is important beyond just slinging code.

I agree. I've had a couple of stints as a manager, now as a CTO for a small startup, and it's giving me so much insight into thinking about engineering from a business perspective. As an IC it's hard to get that birds eye view, but it's possible.

Can you mention one or two such insights about thinking about engineering from a business perspective?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#67

Post by francisofascii »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #33
qeternity wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Presuming your experience in equities markets is within the last decade... Historical average is more like 15 for SPX.

It seems like the average p/e shifted higher in the last 30 years, so maybe 15 is no longer the "correct" baseline to compare to.

My gut says you are right, but why is 30 years a better baseline timeframe than 5 years or 100 years?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#68

Post by metadat »

lumost wrote: post #7
avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

You nailed it! It's the same "excessive dumb money" phenomenon as with the dotcom bubble back in 2000.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#69

Post by xyzzyz »

IshKebab wrote: post #40
cyral wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here’s a chart of the historical average: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Presumably higher average ratios correlate with lower interest rates though.

In fact, you should expect P/E and interest rates to be strongly inversely correlated, purely by the nature of what these things represent.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#70

Post by whiplash451 »

ctime wrote: post #55

I don't think we need the latest Cloud/AI/ML/Crypto/Web3.0 bullshit to spin up fuckedcompany.com again. I remember thinking in ~2015 going to conferences that this shit was never going to last. Then around 2018 driving (sitting) on 101 listening to advertisements for "C3 IoT AI" on NPR thinking, could a company jam more meaningless buzzwords into a single company name? For shits, looked up their stock just and its do…

Indeed. C3AI IPO buyers must feel really good today (despite today's results, actually).
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