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I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

jackogrady.me

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Re: I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

#61

Post by ncmncm »

zbrozek wrote: post #53
hedora wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$3 per watt, installed on your roof is typical these days: https://www.remodelingcosts.org/solar-panel-costs-increase-s... That includes labor, mounting hardware, inverters and grid tie in. It also assumes high efficiency panels. Watch out before buying older technology (lower efficiency) panels. Some have significant efficiency losses per degree Celsius increase in temperature.

I bought 42 Sunpower X21-335 panels used for about $4700 shipped to my door a few years ago and couldn't be happier. As far as I could tell they weren't actually ever unboxed.

For the numerically challenged, that is $4700/42 = $112 each.

$112/335W = $0.33 per watt. Installed, well under $1.

Re: I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

#62

Post by dn3500 »

hedora wrote: post #50
yjftsjthsd-h wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A 400w watt panel is 250$. Wait, panels are that cheap? Could you point me to a good place to buy them?

$3 per watt, installed on your roof is typical these days: https://www.remodelingcosts.org/solar-panel-costs-increase-s... That includes labor, mounting hardware, inverters and grid tie in. It also assumes high efficiency panels. Watch out before buying older technology (lower efficiency) panels. Some have significant efficiency losses per degree Celsius increase in temperature.

I paid $1.47 per watt for 3200 watts last summer but that's in Mexico.

Re: I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

#63

Post by d--b »

> While primary factors driving optimal panel positioning are readily modeled (i.e., the sun’s position at each time of day), site-specific and panel-specific factors are less so. Elements like dynamic shading from nearby trees or structures, localized panel defects, drift in axis positions as systems degrade, etc. can have significant impacts on energy production.

Will changing the orientation of the panel really have some effect on these (besides the drift in axis position) ?

Re: I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

#65

Post by colordrops »

d--b wrote: post #63

> While primary factors driving optimal panel positioning are readily modeled (i.e., the sun’s position at each time of day), site-specific and panel-specific factors are less so. Elements like dynamic shading from nearby trees or structures, localized panel defects, drift in axis positions as systems degrade, etc. can have significant impacts on energy production. Will changing the orientation of the panel really ha…

Perhaps an angle and rotation that is less directly pointed at the sun may also have less shade?

Re: I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

#66

Post by colordrops »

ok_dad wrote: post #52

If you know the lat/lon of the panel (they don’t move right?) and the current clock time, just point it at the current Sun position if it’s daytime? Wouldn’t that be as optimal as possible?

The article states that it works for suboptimal situations with shade and reflections and whatnot.

Re: I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

#68

Post by jseutter »

yjftsjthsd-h wrote: post #58
hedora wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$3 per watt, installed on your roof is typical these days: https://www.remodelingcosts.org/solar-panel-costs-increase-s... That includes labor, mounting hardware, inverters and grid tie in. It also assumes high efficiency panels. Watch out before buying older technology (lower efficiency) panels. Some have significant efficiency losses per degree Celsius increase in temperature.

> $3 per watt, installed on your roof is typical these days Which is why I was so fascinated by someone saying that you could get panels at 250USD/400W=0.625USD/W; I suppose it's possible that all the other stuff (electrician, mounting, inverters) is the difference, but a factor of 5? That feels like an chance to do something hacky and come out way ahead (like, say, DIYing a panel to run your computers, thus cutting…

Yes, a factor of 5 is fairly close. The prices of panels and inverters has dropped, while the price of labor and wiring has stayed constant or increased. The end result is the factor of 5 that you mention, and DIY systems are becoming more popular.

One of the factors in cheaper solar is that the panels have gotten bigger. Panels grew from 250w to 300, 350, and now to 400w and 450w. The 450w panels are 82 inches by 42 inches, so taller than the average person. Larger panels require less mounting and less labor, so even if they cost more they might be slightly cheaper to install.

I think that utility scale solar will eventually beat residential solar on price because of less labor per watt to install. I sometimes think about a solar system that could be set on top of a house in a few hours and would contain the inverters and interlocks and be wired into a single breaker in the house electrical panel. A truck operator/installer and electrician could do two installs a day and the labor price would be significantly less. We are so far from this currently, with site surveys, permitting processes, individual panels in custom configurations and so on that result in several days of work spread out over months. I don't know if it could ever happen, but it is fun to think about at times.

Re: I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

#69

Post by seoaeu »

yarky wrote: post #39
JaimeThompson wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, here is one example of such a site https://gml.noaa.gov/grad/solcalc/ Here is how they do it. https://gml.noaa.gov/grad/solcalc/calcdetails.html

> due to variations in atmospheric composition, temperature, pressure and conditions, observed values may vary from calculations. Isn't this exactly the problem that can be better solved using real power data instead of values expected from theory ?

When they say "may vary", they mean by a fraction of a degree! Astronomers care a lot about precisely accounting for atmospheric refraction because if you want to look at a specific star or whatever, it kind of matters that you point your telescope in exactly the right direction. But for just pointing a solar panel roughly towards the sun, the simplified model from that site should be more than sufficient.

Re: I built an open-source, AI-powered solar panel that's 95% optimal

#70

Post by ncmncm »

f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #57
kumarvvr wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Any mechanism that moves the panel to follow the sun, must be sturdy enough to also withstand high winds, which is inevitably costlier than proof of concept ideas. Better to add more panels. A better way to ensure more power output is to have a set of panels with a small battery back to automate cooling of the panels and cleaning of the panels.

Interesting that the limiting factor is energy and wind. I wonder if you could devise a locking mechanism or something purely mechanical to solve it. Something closer to gears in a watch.

That costs even more.
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