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Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

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Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#61

Post by panick21_ »

themitigating wrote: post #40

All this talk about Lithium feels like it's describing a new destructive force in the environment but won't this replace/reduce oil extraction? The Exxon Valdez, Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and I'm sure many other smaller disasters happened due to oil. I would even add in both gulf wars which costs massive amounts of money, resources, and lives wouldn't have happened if the US didn't have a vested interest in oil. A…

There are a number of issues with that logic.

Lithium isn't burnt up and released into the air. You build one battery with a few kg of lithium inside and that will drive you for 100000s of miles and might have use in other applications after that.

And even at the very end of life, the pack still has all the metal in it an can be recycled (and that will make sense once the scale is large enough).

Unlike Oil, lithium is highly distributed in the earth crust. Pretty much every place on earth has some form of lithium assets. Going to war for lithium would be even more dumb then going to war over oil (and its questionable that Golf wars were about that at all).

As for mining.

Lithium can be sourced many different ways. Traditional hard rock lithium mines are basically not all that different from nickel or copper mines. Not the cleanest thing in the world but its also not specially different or dangerous. Its also a way larger scale then copper and will never reach that scale.

Lithium however can also be sources in a way that is environmentally totally fine. If you have some brine resources and you use DLE, you end up taking a little of the salt out of the water and putting the water back. Nothing in the ecosystem depends on the salt content being just a little higher as far as we know.

Lithium can also be based on clay mining, in such a process its very likely to require a lot of tonnage mined, but its also likely that after you extract the lithium you just put the clay back where it came from. Places where this would be done would likely be deserts where nobody lives.

A current common way is to use brine and let the sun evaporate most of the water. This is environmentally sub-optimal as it actually can use water. But even here its not clear exactly how this is bad, its more maybe a risk that we don't fully understand.

So in summation, there is really nothing like 'Deepwater Horizon'. And even if their was, the result would simply be the ocean being a tiny bit more salty.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#62

Post by panick21_ »

dave333 wrote: post #21

Lithium hydroxide sales could fund restoration of the Salton Sea using the "perimeter lake" concept or one of the other plans for a partial freshwater lake that doesn't require a large diversion of fresh water from the Colorado. Center would be dry playa with some irrigated vegetation or dry salt crust to prevent dust problems, maybe even golf course(s). Southern end of the lake would have brine habitat mostly for bi…

For lithium hydroxide sales to fund anything they first need to actually manage to profitably produce it. And we are far away from that yet. And its very questionable that it will ever get three. And even if it does, the idea that it is profitable enough to finance all that people are hoping is questionable. Lithium mining is a low margin business.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#63

Post by pjc50 »

usrn wrote: post #29
ggm wrote: post #20

The last 5 to 10 years has had a succession of doom-sayers riding the Paul Ehrlich line to "we will run out" -And as Julian Simons bet [0] showed, it may be true but it's based on a false premise of supply chain logistics, mining and planning. In absolute terms yes, there is a finite amount of lithium in the crust. Transmutation aside, What we see in real life is unequal distribution and then bad modelling on assumpt…

>replace all ICE with EV I'm honestly not convinced this will happen. I think the ratio will get a lot more even but I highly doubt ICE will be replaced. Especially as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the economic viability of reducing it back into hydrocarbons increases. Already it's much easier to grow microalgae than it was during the first government experiments in the 60s. As these technologies improv…

> Especially as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the economic viability of reducing it back into hydrocarbons increases

Even if the concentration were to hit 5,000ppm - not only beyond dangerous climate levels but directly dangerous to human breathing - that's still only 0.5%, which makes very little difference to the feasibility of extracting it from the air. There is also no natural market for doing so. It'll pretty much have to be mandated and subsidized if that's ever to happen outside of pilot plants and the US navy.

Oil drilling cannot be carbon neutral, you're inherently bringing carbon up into the atmosphere. Oil drilling plus CCS? Maaaybe.

I think it needs some external political shock like the invasion of Ukraine to trigger a big push against energy imports and towards local energy production.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#64

Post by onethought »

ggm wrote: post #45
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The long haul people should be served by the 100 mile PHEV. the 230 WH/kg should enable the 100 mile PHEV I think, although I haven't done the math on that. I'm in the midwest, and while superchargers will probably take care of my needs (I don't tow), but PHEVs should serve all those people. A 400 mile LFP should be doable for the pickup truck when we hit 260 wh/kg, maybe 500 mile. And if Li-Sulfer or SSB hits, then…

BYD is about to release its ~ $45k AUD car in Australia. 1500 units sold out almost immediately. MG, which is another Chinese manufacturer these days is expected to price-match. Hyundai (the Ioniq) may price match. The BYD has really good range for price (400km NEDC) https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-... If the federal and/or state governments go with some price support, and unit costs to a…

I don't think the Made-in-China Tesla's ever suffered the build quality issues the Fremont built cars did. There have been minor issues.

I think the "low price point" EV is a myth in the short term. I don't think there is enough materials to make the volume required at that price point. This seems to be why Tesla put a hold on their $25k model - which they now seem to be making a "dedicated robotaxi" and betting on solving self-driving.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#65

Post by Jyaif »

_ph_ wrote: post #60
kortilla wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m expecting within ten years to see gas stations closures stranding isolated communities, with the phenomenon becoming commonplace by 2040. Gas stations make most of their money as convenience stores, often selling gas at very narrow margins. Additionally, the average age of the cars on the road is >10 years. The sales today are not supportive for your thesis unless the price of gas continues higher.

The gas stations are not going away. As you say, gas was only part of what they sell. But they will offer charging and the other mobility services required, as coffee and food for the travelers. Look to Norway, where the first gas stations were already converted. At some point, maintenance costs don't justify selling gas any more.

If they don't sell gas, are they still "gas stations"?

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#66

Post by NoRagrets »

mullingitover wrote: post #59
throwaway1777 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It may be a small portion of gdp but we need to eat so it’s important…

California agriculture doesn't produce a lot of important dietary staples, and the ones it does can pretty easily be grown in places that don't suffer from frequent droughts.

Most of California’s ag produces greens and produce that feeds the rest of the country( ‘salad bowl’ of America and strawberries etc). We are also number 1 with canning tomatoes. We also export an embarrassment of nuts.

With indoor ag, they can be substituted..but at great cost. California ag is ridiculously uber optimized and on very thin margins. We feed millions. Abs cheaply. Mostly because we convert fossil fuels into calories. And forex. We sacrificed our dairy industry because it’s cheaper to export alfafa to China in shipping containers than to truck it within CA. The economies of scale is messed up. But because we exported thirsty alfafa during a drought ..we were essentially exporting water for china’s dairy industry. Once again using fossil fuels.

Having said that, central coast/Monterrey/Salinas region will deal with salt water intrusion in max 30 years…guaranteed. Central Valley is already having to deal with ground water contamination. Our aquifers risk running dry with every subsequent drought.

We are better off with every metric from conservation, carbon sequestration to water usage efficiency if we did away with the badge of pride(over $50 billion worth..highest in nation..far second is Iowa at 25 something.) that is CA Big Ag(rather diff from National big Ag).

However, ag in Ca supports a crap ton of jobs that can’t be replaced. Most of them are low paying or middle class jobs. We are a state with a large teacher/tenured profs population, service sector and many many unionized essential jobs. This demographic has to be supported. Minimum basic income won’t cut it because they come with pension benefits. So now we have a problem that Sacramento cannot solve if they interfere with status quo.

Don’t know what the solution is..but the problem is obvious and glaring. Most of this Ag sector is going to disappear when the cheapest resource…land and water becomes useless to the big industrial farmers who have grandfathered water rights.

California ag and water rights is intricately connected to its politics. It’s just a matter of creating a powerful energy lobby to supplant the ag one in Sacramento. But it won’t be easy. Their reach goes as far as D.C. but certainly doable.

I only hope that when CA ag crashes…and it will within 3 decades max..we are self sufficient for our food supply and energy.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#68

Post by rob_c »

themitigating wrote: post #40

All this talk about Lithium feels like it's describing a new destructive force in the environment but won't this replace/reduce oil extraction? The Exxon Valdez, Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and I'm sure many other smaller disasters happened due to oil. I would even add in both gulf wars which costs massive amounts of money, resources, and lives wouldn't have happened if the US didn't have a vested interest in oil. A…

Dont worry the strip mining takes place far, far away in a magical land where Teslas are going to end up coming from...

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#69

Post by algo_trader »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #27
ggm wrote: post #20

The last 5 to 10 years has had a succession of doom-sayers riding the Paul Ehrlich line to "we will run out" -And as Julian Simons bet [0] showed, it may be true but it's based on a false premise of supply chain logistics, mining and planning. In absolute terms yes, there is a finite amount of lithium in the crust. Transmutation aside, What we see in real life is unequal distribution and then bad modelling on assumpt…

Sodium Ion batteries are approaching somewhere in the 120-160 wh/kg in production, per CATL. I believe 200 wh/kg is on the industry "roadmap" in 3-5 years. I believe Sodium Ion is like LFP in its safety with thermal runaway, so it, like LFP, doesn't require as much cooling and equipment overhead so its Cell-to-Module, or even better, Cell-to-Pack is bettery than cobalt/nickel li-ion chemistries. A sodium ion battery…

> Hopefully in 2-4 years we get the following

IMO, current LFP batteries are already "good enough" and "cheap enough" for 80% of car sales. Reportly in 2021 China, 5000-cycle LFP at ~$70/khw. Chop off 1000 cycles, add 20% price margins, and it is still good enough.

If you could conjure up x10 manufacturing scale, you would still sell every single cell.

It will be easier to improve charging infra, that to improve NMC or stablize sodium.

/end of rant

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#70

Post by usrn »

ggm wrote: post #44
themitigating wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The existing infrastructure of electricity, excluding building charging stations and the possibility of transmission upgrades, is why I believe in EVs instead of Hydrogen. Wouldn't the cost of building a new Hydrogen setup equivalent to gasoline be insane? You can't retrofit gas stations that easily since the tanks weren't meant to hold a gas. I suppose they could add Hydrogen storage to existing gas stations but you…

Pure H2 is a nightmare. Hydrogen up converted to Ammonia is much easier to handle, comparable to LNG for the cost of management. For volume shipment between economies, Ammonia is the way to go.

Ammonia produces NOx when burned. You think CO2 is bad that stuff is absolutely nasty. I don't know why that would be an improvement.
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