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Putin’s Worsening Problems

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Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#61

Post by spacemanmatt »

tomjen3 wrote: post #58
melling wrote: post #2

Hmmmm… I think people are overlooking the fact that Putin is willing to simply lay siege and use artillery to shell the Ukrainians into submission.

Putin is a bully and needs to be treated as such. We should have established that no fly zone long ago. Russia only understands strength. We should make it clear that we are stronger, don’t even consider his point and he will back down. This is hacker news. You have all dealt with bullies. Have they ever backed down, except after being physically hit?

> This is hacker news

This is a cheerleading blog for tech startups, run by a VC firm. This audience has more experience with elevator pitches than bullies and geopolitics.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#62

Post by Timshel »

heavenlyblue wrote: post #60
melling wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To answer his question and not provide a meaningless comparison, YES ALL THOSE BOMBINGS IN WW2 were effective. Now, if someone wants to digress into Vietnam…

> YES ALL THOSE BOMBINGS IN WW2 were effective. How exactly?

Some strategic ones at least appear to have ben effective: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_campaign_of_World_War_II

Not do much for area bombing (cf https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_bombing_during_Wor...).

In both case we are talking of multiple years of bombing.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#63

Post by smitty1e »

tarsinge wrote: post #56
smitty1e wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To what effect? So that Ukraine can join Vietnam and Afghanistan and form a "Do Not Do This" triefecta for military history? If this were the only concern, should we just tacitly support Ukraine until Russia implodes? There are nuclear weapons rattling around in there. Politics is all about managing uncertainties. I should think a calmer, less dictatorial outcome would be everyone's interests. Or is it? Because Ukrai…

Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine? Honestly I’m not the sure the claim is illegitimate enough to stop China (at least that’s what I get after just reading Wikipedia), so while unfortunate for Taiwan at least I hope public opinion in other countries might not want a war, given it’s not even recognized by a lot of countries. The strategic importance it has for the US (and…

> Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine?

Arguments can be made. Also: lost, for a glance at Hong Kong.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#64

Post by tim333 »

leobg wrote: post #55

Mearsheimer’s prediction, based on the assumption that this is a superpower feeling under existential threat: “The Russians are not going to roll over and play dead. In fact what the Russians are going to do is they're going to crush the Ukrainians. They're going to bring out the big guns. They're going to turn places like Kiev and other cities in Ukraine into rubble. They're going to do Fallujahs.” https://youtu.be/…

Thing is Russia itself isn't under existential threat and never was. No one was thinking of invading it or attacking it. This seems more about trying to re-establish a Russian empire where it controls other countries.

In some ways it's more like Afghanistan where they thought they'd go occupy some country and then found it too expensive and unrewarding.

I'm not sure Russia, or at least 99% of Russia wanted to invade Ukraine proper which it why Putin asked their parliament to recognise Donbass rather than admitting his real plan. It's kind of one man's project.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#65

Post by leobg »

tim333 wrote: post #64
leobg wrote: post #55

Mearsheimer’s prediction, based on the assumption that this is a superpower feeling under existential threat: “The Russians are not going to roll over and play dead. In fact what the Russians are going to do is they're going to crush the Ukrainians. They're going to bring out the big guns. They're going to turn places like Kiev and other cities in Ukraine into rubble. They're going to do Fallujahs.” https://youtu.be/…

Thing is Russia itself isn't under existential threat and never was. No one was thinking of invading it or attacking it. This seems more about trying to re-establish a Russian empire where it controls other countries. In some ways it's more like Afghanistan where they thought they'd go occupy some country and then found it too expensive and unrewarding. I'm not sure Russia, or at least 99% of Russia wanted to invade…

Jump backwards a minute or two from the timestamp I linked to. Addressed exactly this point.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#66

Post by tim333 »

smitty1e wrote: post #63
tarsinge wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine? Honestly I’m not the sure the claim is illegitimate enough to stop China (at least that’s what I get after just reading Wikipedia), so while unfortunate for Taiwan at least I hope public opinion in other countries might not want a war, given it’s not even recognized by a lot of countries. The strategic importance it has for the US (and…

> Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine? Arguments can be made. Also: lost, for a glance at Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was never really independent hence the lack of a war there. It was part of China, then a British colony, then returned to China.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#67

Post by tim333 »

tarsinge wrote: post #56
smitty1e wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To what effect? So that Ukraine can join Vietnam and Afghanistan and form a "Do Not Do This" triefecta for military history? If this were the only concern, should we just tacitly support Ukraine until Russia implodes? There are nuclear weapons rattling around in there. Politics is all about managing uncertainties. I should think a calmer, less dictatorial outcome would be everyone's interests. Or is it? Because Ukrai…

Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine? Honestly I’m not the sure the claim is illegitimate enough to stop China (at least that’s what I get after just reading Wikipedia), so while unfortunate for Taiwan at least I hope public opinion in other countries might not want a war, given it’s not even recognized by a lot of countries. The strategic importance it has for the US (and…

There's always the more modern and enlightened way of doing thing of having something like a Chinese Union like the European Union with free trade and the like but separate governments. I'm hoping the mess in Ukraine encourages the Chinese to look to more peaceful options.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#68

Post by notacoward »

gruez wrote: post #31
crooked-v wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indiscriminate bombardment of cities does very little to achieve any military objectives, especially when a substantial part of the country 'under siege' is actually entirely untouched by enemy troops. In purely military terms, doing that would be almost the same as just having all that artillery sit around and do nothing while the Ukrainians execute major counter-offenses.

>Indiscriminate bombardment of cities does very little to achieve any military objectives, especially when a substantial part of the country 'under siege' is actually entirely untouched by enemy troops. So all the allied bombings in ww2 were pointless?

Did you not read the "indiscriminate" part? Bombing production facilities and supply lines/depots is one thing. Bombing apartment buildings and hospitals is quite another. Unfortunately, Putin has quite a record of doing the latter.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#69

Post by smitty1e »

tim333 wrote: post #66
smitty1e wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Excuse my candor but isn’t the status of Taiwan way more contentious than Ukraine? Arguments can be made. Also: lost, for a glance at Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was never really independent hence the lack of a war there. It was part of China, then a British colony, then returned to China.

That's a high-level summary, skipping over substantial detail.

Re: Putin’s Worsening Problems

#70

Post by gruez »

bladegash wrote: post #52
gruez wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can come up with another example of "noble lie that went badly", I'm all for it.

Sure, all things going great and your life isn’t under threat, ethics are important and Id encourage people to refrain from lying or harming others. However, you do not always get to choose the situations you face in life and there is a reason war is described as “hell”. People sacrifice more than just their physical well-being (e.g., think along the idea behind Sophie’s Choice). It is just the reality that sabotage,…

>It is just the reality that sabotage, deception, and espionage are used and in many ways just as important for winning wars (aka, survival) as any other military tactic/strategy (just look to influential and studied military tacticians such as Sun Tzu, Cardinal Richelieu, or Clausewitz).

If we accept that, then we basically also accept that in war, it's expected that everything coming out from both sides is going to be lies and propaganda, so there's no need to take anything seriously. Sounds like exactly what putin wants for his PR war. Are russians committing war crimes in ukraine? The ukranians say so, but we all know they're going to be lying anyways, so who knows?

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