Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 791 posts

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#61

Post by tommiegannert »

shepardrtc wrote: post #27
PaulHoule wrote: post #3

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

> I wouldn't be surprised if some of the early missile hits on residential buildings were something like this that failed to lock on That or Russian missile attacks.

Indeed, I think GP meant that it could be a (Russian) anti-radiation missile that failed to lock onto the radar signal of a Buk.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#62

Post by tedivm »

slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

They hit the fuel train that was supplying the convoy with a drone strike and released the footage. The convoy has been stalled for days now, both due to fighting and due to supply chain issues (such as having their supply train blow up).

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#63

Post by criddell »

boc wrote: post #50

I think we need to consider the possibility that much of the Russian army only existed on paper, and that the true strength was overinflated by trickling up good news only throughout all ranks of the military.[1] Readiness was overstated. Equipment was overstated. Training was for parades, not combat. Everyone in the Russian military had assumed they'd never actually fight a real war, so they could grift and sell rat…

> the true strength was overinflated by trickling up

When I watched HBO's excellent Chernobyl that was one of the recurring themes. Everybody is lying to their superiors and nobody wants to hear bad news and they suffer because if it. I assumed that was probably exaggerated for the sake of drama but maybe it was actually understated?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#64

Post by evan_ »

mattnewton wrote: post #51
evan_ wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if that makes sense. The goal is not to shoot aircraft down, the goal is to prevent them from coming in the first place. Wouldn't you want to disclose the hell out of your extremely effective anti-aircraft weapons so you don't have to use them as much? Obviously not the positioning or numbers but just that you have them...

Not if your goal is to win a war of attrition.

Ukraine's win condition is not "destroy every airplane in Russia," it's "keep airplanes from blowing up stuff in Ukraine."

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#65

Post by whimsicalism »

milesdyson_phd wrote: post #56

One thing I don't understand is Russia's opening missile salvos, they barely even struck at the heart of the Ukrainian Air Force. I guess you could theorize they didn't want to destroy that infrastructure in the event that the Ukrainian government rolled over, but that seems to have been a risky bet that is currently playing out.

> they barely even struck at the heart of the Ukrainian Air Force

Keep in mind that media reports and reports from the Ukrainian military are designed to minimize losses and boost morale.

I've seen quite a few videos of Ukrainian planes destroyed on the tarmac and there isn't evidence for a significant Ukrainian air presence anymore.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#66

Post by [deleted] »

thatguy0900 wrote: post #52
boc wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Japanese surrender in WWII due to sustained strategic bombing of civilian cities without a single troop landing in mainland Japan is a clear contradiction to this take.

If Russia nuked Ukraine they might win the war on Ukraine, sure. Japan didn't even quit until there were two though. Would they have quit with no nukes and just firebombing?

[deleted]

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#67

Post by HideousKojima »

micromacrofoot wrote: post #29
slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

Ukraine really doesn't want war, the odds are stacked against them and without significant outside ground troops they'll be devastated even if Russia is as incompetent as they currently appear. Killing aggressors is often used as an excuse for the aggressors to be more aggressive and Russia's army is large enough to replace that convoy a few times over without much of a sweat. Violence also helps back the idea that R…

>Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated).

It definitely isn't "completely fabricated":

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

The real problem is, who gives a shit if a small unit in the Ukrainian National Guard is made up of far right extremists? It's a purely internal matter for the Ukrainians to deal with however they see fit, and provides zero justification for Russia's invasion.

But by lying and claiming it's a lie you're going to make anyone who looks into the truth behind the matter more likely to become sympathetic to the Russian version of events.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#68

Post by coldcode »

You can have an enormous airforce on paper, but not be able to wield it in those numbers. It's possible they simply can't get enough working planes together to make a difference, and what they have working is all that they have. It's also possible that Putin is afraid of some other border being attacked and is keeping all planes for defense (though that seems rather stupid). You can't win a ground war if the enemy can indiscriminately destroy your troops, vehicles and logistics, no matter how many people you can throw into battle. Of course this did work in WW2 as the USSR sent enormous armies full of people who were often unarmed (pick up a dead mans rifle), and had Commissars behind them to shoot anyone who failed to go forward. This is no longer the case, and it's entirely possible the troops (and some leadership) simply doesn't have any desire to kill themselves in a war they care nothing about.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#69

Post by watwut »

whimsicalism wrote: post #41
watwut wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war is already in the indiscriminate killing phase and moving towards just destroy city phase. Should be there in few days. Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars.

Respectfully, the indiscriminate killing we have seen so far - while awful - does not even remotely hold a candle to what happened in Syria. They are clearly pulling their punches, likely because of the ethnic/racial dynamics of this conflict.

They expected to win quickly and easily - and are shocked it did not happened. Whether they pull the punches will be seen later. Historically, there was not much holding back punches between Russia and Ukraine. You may start reading about Holodomor, which is still debated whether it counts as genocide or not.

For that matter, historically, Russia holding punches was not exactly the thing. Not even toward Russians.

The original propaganda line was that Ukrainians are basically Russians being taken home now. That nonsense was shattered by now. The idea that this will stop punches now that they are refusing, purely because both are white, is something only Americans can think.

-----------

War in Syria did not started by indiscriminate bombing of cities. It got there through series of escalations when rebels refused to give up.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#70

Post by blast »

PaulHoule wrote: post #3

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

If that is the case, why would officials and experts be "stumped"? This seems like the obvious explanation.
Post reply on HN