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Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

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Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#61

Post by ghaff »

tablespoon wrote: post #30
sushibowl wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found a 1987 report from the bureau of justice statistics: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/lifetime-likelihood... Uses data from approximately the 1975-1985 period, so not about the 90s.

>> Any source? These figures seem absurdly high, and I say that as a former resident of NYC in the 90s. > Uses data from approximately the 1975-1985 period, so not about the 90s. Also, wasn't violent crime notoriously high during that period? For instance, my understanding was Times Square used to be gritty and a little dangerous, then Giuliani turned it into a Disneyland in the 90s.

I don't know how actively dangerous Times Square was but for it and 42nd Street "gritty" is a pretty good description. You see remnants of it at e.g. the Port Authority, aka one of the world's worst bus stations. Being there late at night was... interesting (as I once was). For a lot of people who knew NYC in that era, the "Disneyfication" isn't the worst thing that could have happened.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#62

Post by giantg2 »

ghaff wrote: post #43
Tepix wrote: post #15

For me, planning for a five day power outage in the winter seems like it's something that takes only a limited amount of effort and resources and could come in very handy indeed. Make sure you have enough water (and a way to make it potable), heat, food, light, 1st aid and communications. Going all in and getting a year of supplies seems excessive. As always, YMMV :-) PS: In Germany, the BMI (interior ministry) publi…

For heat in northern climates, unfortunately there's only so much you can do (outside of a backup generator with a big propane tank). A wood stove/fireplace can keep you comfortable but you'll still probably end up with frozen/broken pipes. But I agree with your basic point. Early on in the pandemic there were people stocking up on 6 months of rice/pasta/etc. In cities. You basically plan for relatively short outages…

If you keep the pipes running, they might not freeze. It's also usually not too difficult to drain the majority of the pipes depending on the plumbing design.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#63

Post by verisimi »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #20
verisimi wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think that society is more coherent now, after the past 2 years? Are things improving or are the wheels coming off? The Canadian government was freezing people's bank accounts like they are North Korea, and most cheer this on? With Russia going to war? Etc etc. If you had bought gold 7 years ago, you would have doubled its value.

Turn off the news and step outside to interact with real people. The situation is much nicer when you’re not letting a 24/7 stream of news and hot takes teleport your attention to whatever the worst event in the entire world happens to be at the current moment. > If you had bought gold 7 years ago, you would have doubled its value. And you would have made the wrong investment choice, because the stock market outperfo…

> Turn off the news and step outside to interact with real people. The situation is much nicer when you’re not letting a 24/7 stream of news and hot takes teleport your attention to whatever the worst event in the entire world happens to be at the current moment.

I go outside a lot. I don't watch the news, I watch people. Have you seen people in the past 2 years? Do you think they are acting normally? Were they always insane?

Do you also think that there is a planned reset going on? One that involves us moving to technocracy? With govcoins (aka UBI), bio-medical-security-id, energy rationing, etc.

Does the stock market meaningfully relate to reality? Does crypto? Did you know that Western governments have the ability to seize people's wealth from their banks, like in Canada?

My view is that the preppers sounded crazy then to me, but sound a lot less now. I reckon in 5 years time, they will appear to be modern sages.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#64

Post by ghaff »

giantg2 wrote: post #62
ghaff wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For heat in northern climates, unfortunately there's only so much you can do (outside of a backup generator with a big propane tank). A wood stove/fireplace can keep you comfortable but you'll still probably end up with frozen/broken pipes. But I agree with your basic point. Early on in the pandemic there were people stocking up on 6 months of rice/pasta/etc. In cities. You basically plan for relatively short outages…

If you keep the pipes running, they might not freeze. It's also usually not too difficult to drain the majority of the pipes depending on the plumbing design.

If you have forced hot water heating, it's more difficult.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#65

Post by giantg2 »

thematrixturtle wrote: post #2

> In the US in the 90s, your lifetime likelihood of victimization was estimated to be around 80%; the odds of suffering criminal injury hovered at 40%. Any source? These figures seem absurdly high, and I say that as a former resident of NYC in the 90s.

The 80% lifetime chance of being a victim of a crime sounds about right. How many people can say they've never had some sort of property stolen?

The 40% lifetime injury chance sounds a little high. I wouldn't be surprised if it was around 25% though. Obviously this is all anecdotal.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#66

Post by giantg2 »

irrational wrote: post #23
boredumb wrote: post #11

Cash on hand, a gun with ammunition, canned food, and bottled water.

What use is cash in the case of a true catastrophe? And I don’t see the benefit of having a gun with or without ammunition. I would never ever be willing to shoot another person (or even an animal), even to protect myself or mine. I’d rather we are raped, tortured, and killed than harm another person.

That's an interesting take. Do you have any personal experience with those types of victimization and their impacts? You also say "we". Do the other members of the group share the same position?

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#67

Post by hef19898 »

tomaskafka wrote: post #57
snowwrestler wrote: post #5

The book Eternity by Greg Bear had an interesting take on this. In that book (spoiler) there is an exchange of nuclear weapons between the U.S. and Russia, which devastates the surface of the Earth. But many people survive, and a society quickly develops post-war. But it is dominated not by those who were most individually prepared, but by those who contributed the most to their neighbors and communities. There is so…

Yes. I am unfortunately not a doctor, but seeing a few up close, I think that knowing how to treat injuries and diseases will be much more useful, than any amount of guns, ammo, and food.

Directly followed by the ability to repair, and build, stuff. From tools to machines and infrastructure.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#68

Post by skylanh »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #51
toomuchtodo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enjoyed this comment. Vibes with an essay by Cory Doctorow about needing a “bug in bag” not a “bug out bag”, to run towards community to help versus running to the mountains, as you need collective action to survive. https://boingboing.net/2015/12/21/a-survivalist-on-why-you-s... https://boingboing.net/2008/07/13/postapocalypse-witho.html

That's how the Japanese do it. If you have noticed, they do a really good job of responding to disasters. In fact, one of the funniest aspects, is that the Yakuza (Japanese mobsters) often are the first ones on the scene, and seem to take pleasure at beating the government response. I suspect that part of the reason is that organized crime tends to have an incredibly robust infrastructure, hardened against unpredicta…

(Speaking totally out of turn and without any sort of knowledge of the situation)

The rapid response of the Yakuza may simply be opportunistic and predatory.

Food, clothes, shelter, help to save precious heirlooms, those are all inflexible needs.

Borrowing on "social credit" on inflexible needs can be exploitatively steep later.

In the Yakuza-as-"helpers" model, they're taking advantage of chaos and economics theories.

I think you can see what is really happening if we switch out "Yakuza" with any outlaw criminal organization in the States like as in "During the floods of '22, I got help to save my photos of my great grandparents from the Gambino's...", or "During the hurricane and disasters of '22, I needed antibiotics for my daughter, the Hell's Angel's helped me..."

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#69

Post by uxp100 »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #51
toomuchtodo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enjoyed this comment. Vibes with an essay by Cory Doctorow about needing a “bug in bag” not a “bug out bag”, to run towards community to help versus running to the mountains, as you need collective action to survive. https://boingboing.net/2015/12/21/a-survivalist-on-why-you-s... https://boingboing.net/2008/07/13/postapocalypse-witho.html

That's how the Japanese do it. If you have noticed, they do a really good job of responding to disasters. In fact, one of the funniest aspects, is that the Yakuza (Japanese mobsters) often are the first ones on the scene, and seem to take pleasure at beating the government response. I suspect that part of the reason is that organized crime tends to have an incredibly robust infrastructure, hardened against unpredicta…

I don't think there is a clean distinction between a fuedal/fascist society, and one where organized crime, historically often tied to ultranationalist far right parties, leads the response in crises. That is what I'd expect in a fascist society, an active para-government organization tied to particular politicians and parties.

(That being said, I don't really think the Yakuza even meets this romanticized vision that is pretty much fascism. There is more fiction presenting them as cruel but competent organization builders, and less presenting them as violent meth addicts.)

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#70

Post by hef19898 »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #28

This is a much more practical and realistic prepping guide than what a lot of self-labeled preppers tend to practice. Suggestions such as getting in shape and building good relationships with your neighbors are great suggestions for both good times and disasters. It’s also easy to map these suggestions to recent disasters and see how people who practiced them would be (or were) better off. There’s a weird element to…

It is worth noting that even the worst disaster in human history, while sometimes toppling empires, failed to really destroy communities within less than a couple of generations. And after more than one generation a community changed, or migrated, more than it was destroyed.

The plague didn't do it Europe. All the earth quakes and other natural disasters didn't do it long term (immediate effects are catastrphic so). Famines come close, and even then communities rebuild and survive. I have yet to see a real world example of a Walking Dead like scenario. The dinosaurs and the asteroid maybe, but those dinosaurs left so little documebtation, it's a shame.

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