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Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

vaghetti.dev

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Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#61
post #17

I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer. Making machines do things will never end. However, the tools for making machines do things is evolving very quickly. The general art of being a developer will continue to get specialized and at some point specialists at any field would be expected to be able to program their machines. Very few people are learning how to run their servers and much more are moving int…

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Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#62
Regardless of whatever trends exist now, every programmer must spare a thought about their future. Ageism is common in this industry. No matter how great a programmer you are, you will be eventually discriminated. And this area of work is notoriously famous for giving people age related diseases.

If you have a gravy train going for you. Ensure you plan your retirement well, take care of your diet, exercise and relationships.

Nothing really lasts forever, even if does for a community, individuals always run out of luck. Instead of thinking of yourself as a superman, imagining yourself as a mortal with limited resources, time and luck will have you better placed for the future.

YMMV.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#63
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer Not in a million years. When I was 10 I got my first computer and spent 12-16 hours per day on it every day learning BASIC, 6502 Assembly and many other languages. All the adults at the time thought, “this is how all kids will be from now on!” Except none of my peers did it. The generation after me only had a small percentage of people truly interested in computers a…

How is not touching a programming language until college a bad thing? Some people just want to make a living out of software engineering and then go home and they aren't sweating over Web 4.0 or whatever we are on now.

18 is awfully old to start learning something for the first time. Imagine saying the same thing about math, reading, or history. It's harder to pick things up when you're older, and it leaves fewer people capable of it. See also: learning human languages.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#64
post #26
post #17

I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer. Making machines do things will never end. However, the tools for making machines do things is evolving very quickly. The general art of being a developer will continue to get specialized and at some point specialists at any field would be expected to be able to program their machines. Very few people are learning how to run their servers and much more are moving int…

I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer Not in a million years. When I was 10 I got my first computer and spent 12-16 hours per day on it every day learning BASIC, 6502 Assembly and many other languages. All the adults at the time thought, “this is how all kids will be from now on!” Except none of my peers did it. The generation after me only had a small percentage of people truly interested in computers a…

> I’ve interviewed a couple hundred computer science graduates from top schools for jobs and the vast majority of them didn’t touch their first programming language until college

In the US?!

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#65

>> The CEO’s job is to make as much profit as possible. Higher salaries mean less profit. It’s just how the game works. I find this to be too simplified. The CEO's job is far beyond salaries alone. >> Even if we enter some new dotcom bubble and a good chunk of our startup ecosystem dies off, demand for tech is spreading across all industries, businesses everywhere are digitizing their operations and these systems wil…

What about when everyone becomes a programmer (now) and starts a race to the bottom?

I don't think everyone will want to become a developer, and it's not a job just anyone wants to jump into. Compare this profession to say, the legal industry (the first example I could think of), where being a good lawyer/barrister is a high-paying profession. The law career may have a saturation point and regionally limited, but it still exists and pays well in certain situations.

I could see entry-level developer job salaries drop, but rise rapidly with experience. That would be my first indicator of a market correction.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#66
Author seems to have a zero-sum world view, and think that everything that goes up must come down. I personally don't believe in either. Tech workers will continue to be in increasingly high demand, and automation, AI and "no-code" or "low-code" will only intensify that trend, not diminish it.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#67
For people that are entrenched in the industry, 10+ years of experience, specialized skill sets, etc. I really don’t think the genie will be put back in the bottle. The people that will be burned the worst are newcomers or people with narrow skillsets in areas that fall out of fashion.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lawyers and doctors in the US effectively have union-style control on the supply of lawyers and doctors, via the Bar Association and AMA. Developers have no such labor association. We also have headwinds like H1-Bs, that push down our wages.

Perhaps eventually developers will organize one.

I don't think big companies will ever allow it. They're floating on bliss from being able to push in federal laws that exclude programmers from overtime pay. Places like Google would pay trillions to keep that going and push down wages more and more.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#69
>The CEO’s job is to make as much profit as possible

It doesn't have to be, especially if the company isn't public. Their job is to run the company successfully. Part of that is keeping their employees happy and retaining talent.

>If a new IDE shows up and they can deliver stuff 5% faster, that means you can have 5% less programmers!

That's never how it works though. As workers have become more efficient they have been required to output more and more.

Overall a lot of claims in this blog are unsubstantiated

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is not touching a programming language until college a bad thing? Some people just want to make a living out of software engineering and then go home and they aren't sweating over Web 4.0 or whatever we are on now.

18 is awfully old to start learning something for the first time. Imagine saying the same thing about math, reading, or history. It's harder to pick things up when you're older, and it leaves fewer people capable of it. See also: learning human languages.

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