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Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#61
post #11

Maybe we need this kind of optimistic bias in order to get anything new done. The road to every improvement is littered with failures, whose trying and failing was nevertheless necessary to the overall success.

Ehh, I'd rather society focus on stable foundations that allow for thinking, tinkering and inventions, rather than moonshot attempts at getting rich that destroy you if they fail.

This doesn't work if progress requires something like making a big jump from one cliff to another. Saying "let's move safely 1cm at a time" gets you to the edge of the cliff, and then you stop and you get nowhere.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#62

Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…

Yep.... Bootstrapping is for fools. Virtually no founders out there are pouring their personal savings into their company. The issues with bootstrapping: 1) No one to tell you to give up except your own survival instinct. 2) You've already told yourself to ignore that survival instinct because of the success stories you've heard. 3) Even if your idea is fantastic, there is another group of folks out there who have ra…

Virtually no founders out there are pouring their personal savings into their company.

That definitely isn't true. Tens of thousands of companies are bootstrapped every year. Some go on to be quite successful (Github, GoPro, Apple...).

You won't find all that many bootstrapped business founders posting on HN (it's run by an investment company...) but that doesn't mean they're not out there. Plus, due to the changing landscape of VC investing, most deals require a bit of traction before you even get a Series A. You have to bootstrap before many VCs will talk to you. There's also angel money, family and friends, etc, but getting that while you're pre-revenue is still much harder than proving the business is at least a bit viable first.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#63
post #19

From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…

Doing what successful people do increases your odds of success. It doesn't guarantee anything.

Doing what losers do decreases your odds of success.

> they should not be your guide of how to become successful yourself.

Of course they should be.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#64
post #19

From my personal experience I would say we have this bias not only when it comes to success stories. One person has done something good or bad. Then all people who are in that specific group must be like this. Think of Politicians. One does something bad they are all bad. One bicycle driver is riding like crazy so lets ban all of them. I had some bad Asian food so Asian food in general must be bad. Country X had a sh…

Yes.

I'm starting to see this for myself and now i'm basically decided to ignore a lot of advice after consuming a lot of it.

Instead just to have a few goals and spend time in reflection to decide if they are still what I want and how that is working for me, what I need to do to get closer to them etc and let that decide the best routines.

So many things I hear that are apparently the answer to everything just doesn't work for me. Lots of popular productivity systems, journaling, getting up early, morning routines etc. I get that they can and do work for a lot of people, but the advise I feel is close to worthless as it matters what works for you and if you use trial and error and a reflective process you can figure that out for yourself, without needing the advice or at least i've heard enough of it to know what my options are now so what I need to do is consume less of that and adjust behaviours in my own life accordingly.

I think it comes down to the basic idea that life is way more complex than we can imagine, there is just so much at play and every little thing affects everything else, everyone works quite different and each environment and situation is also unique, bringing the exact same solutions to those things is silly, the only thing to do is adapt to it along the way, it's the system of evolution, but somehow we forget that and want some magical universal solution to avoid the chaos that the real world brings.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#66
post #60

Besides the survivor bias, most success stories are also incomplete. The non glamorous parts get skipped. Look up who Bill Gates' mother is if you wonder how they got IBM to talk to them for MS-DOS in the first place.

IBM went to talk to Gary Kildall (CP/M) first.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#67
post #12
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly right. This kind of optimism is (usually) individually irrational, but extremely beneficial for the collective. Every time the world moves forward it's because some over-confident idiot bets everything on a hare brained idea. It's almost always ruinous, but on a societal level, the successes more than make up for all the failures.

A lot of our biggest and most transformative "successes" have come at a price, and so do some of the biggest failure. I think the jury is out on net gain.

What about clean water? and vaccinations? and no more famine?

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#68

Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…

"Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories."

And due to the law of averages one of them will get lucky and be hugely successful from it... then the cycle repeats.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#69

Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…

> - A SaaS company, Salmon as a Service, providing next day delivery of fresh salmon, when the same thing can be bought at the local store.

Please take my money, where can I sign for this?

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#70
post #60

Besides the survivor bias, most success stories are also incomplete. The non glamorous parts get skipped. Look up who Bill Gates' mother is if you wonder how they got IBM to talk to them for MS-DOS in the first place.

IBM went to talk to Gary Kildall (CP/M) first.

> IBM went to talk to Gary Kildall (CP/M) first.

Yeah, and that makes sense. You need an OS you talk to the guy who has an OS first. What's not mentioned in any success story about MS is how they got to start talking with IBM in the first place after the negotiations for CP/M failed. It's not like they had an OS product.

Anyway, networking is essential to doing business, we all agree on it. What I'm saying is the "success story" is incomplete because it doesn't mention it. And so are most other success stories, perhaps in less obvious ways.

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