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America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

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Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#61

Post by notacoward »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #27
djohnston wrote: post #6

I believed it until China started scoring own goals kneecapping their tech industry and their best and brightest kept coming to the West... Someday though, my VEMAX investments will look like a good decision.

They kneecapped some of their consumer internet industry. They're still investing a lot in all other forms of technology.

Exactly. China is very deliberately not allowing the ad-click business to divert talent from more strategic sectors. Whether you think it's a good idea or not, acceptable or not in the sense of market freedom, it's a rational move.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#62

Post by notacoward »

starwind wrote: post #44
notacoward wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...and yet, those developments seem to have had little effect on the geopolitical situation. Everyone who tries to predict the future in this level of detail will have some misses, and it's always a bit too easy to criticize others' predictions. The question is whether their broader conclusions hold up better than mere guesswork, and I'd say this author did pretty well.

> and yet, those developments seem to have had little effect on the geopolitical situation I beg to differ. Two years ago the Saudis and the Russians got in a bad spat where the Russians decided they wanted to bankrupt US natural gas producers and the Saudis decided to bankrupt the Russians

How has that affected the US's trajectory which is the subject of the article?

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#63

Post by simon_o »

synergy20 wrote: post #20
sAbakumoff wrote: post #8

America will not collapse, but American democracy likely will collapse. At the end of 2022, GOP will win the mid-term elections and have the majority in the house and the senate. They already have state legislatures effectively under control, and the supreme court is full of conservative judges. In 2024 Ron De Santos, or another authoritarian candidate, will win the GOP nomination and easily win the election because…

I'm still a little bit confident in the system, though. Because in 2026, Dem will win back both congress and senate, it's just a normal pattern. Voters never liked any party owns it all. Two parties keep playing this along the way, except each game are so close these days, it's tiring and boring and hard to advance any agenda when either one is in control. The system is getting close to deadlock when both sides no lo…

> Because in 2026, Dem will win back both congress and senate, it's just a normal pattern.

The parent's prediction is that there won't be a (free) election in 2026.

Hope that helps.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#64

Post by djohnston »

notacoward wrote: post #61
jeffreyrogers wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They kneecapped some of their consumer internet industry. They're still investing a lot in all other forms of technology.

Exactly. China is very deliberately not allowing the ad-click business to divert talent from more strategic sectors. Whether you think it's a good idea or not, acceptable or not in the sense of market freedom, it's a rational move.

My counterpoint is that you can make a rational decision and still be wrong. Ad click business is how they can build a facial recognition database of 3 billion people, and China is uniquely positioned to immediately apply that dataset to training ML with military applications.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#65

Post by wbsss4412 »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #48
JavaBatman wrote: post #25

Even if we transition to a multipolar world order and renewed great power competition, America will still be the strongest and most secure global power. It has hegemony in the western hemisphere through its enforcement of the Monroe Doctrine; it is protected by the two largest oceans; it has historical, linguistic, and cultural ties to two regional powers on both sides of the ocean (UK and Ireland in Europe, Australi…

I think the key unmentioned weakness of the United States is our economic system and monetary policy. Especially because of our ever increasing debt and deficit spending.

What do you pose is the implication of that?

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#66

Post by systemvoltage »

jessaustin wrote: post #45
systemvoltage wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good, US has been spending unfair share and has been the nanny of the world. One thing I agreed with Trump policy was this inward-looking aspect - no more stupid wars, no more pulling the weight of NATO and no more nation building in ME. Note that these policies were bipartisan - Bushes and Clintons/Obama supported them and spun the military industrial complex slot machine. What Trump did was very much in the stark c…

It's difficult to imagine Trump as "a more lucid version" of anyone? One would expect Rep. Paul could talk more intelligently than Pres. Trump on pretty much any topic, with the possible exception of USA corporate bankruptcy law. With respect to the substance of your comment, sure, Trump talked a good game about stopping the stupid wars. He just never got around to actually doing that.

Wrong adjective on my part. I mean a more “crazy” version of Ron Paul. I agree, RP spoke well but he’d had no chance in polls.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#67

Post by pyrale »

systemvoltage wrote: post #21
phekunde wrote: post #12

America will not collapse, it will become less relevant. The multipolar world is going to be more prominent going forward. Even France's Macron is talking about making EU independent of US influence. And with emerging country like India already having a DNA of non-alignment, it looks like the US will have a say in global world order but the influence will be far more limited than what it use to be.

Good, US has been spending unfair share and has been the nanny of the world. One thing I agreed with Trump policy was this inward-looking aspect - no more stupid wars, no more pulling the weight of NATO and no more nation building in ME. Note that these policies were bipartisan - Bushes and Clintons/Obama supported them and spun the military industrial complex slot machine. What Trump did was very much in the stark c…

> Good, US has been spending unfair share and has been the nanny of the world.

Do you really believe the US has been doing that selflessly?

I mean, it's OK to no longer want to be an imperialistic nation. The feeling I get from people with that kind of message, though, is that they usually don't want to lose the benefits of being hegemonic. They just don't want to pay the upkeep for it.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#68

Post by notacoward »

djohnston wrote: post #64
notacoward wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. China is very deliberately not allowing the ad-click business to divert talent from more strategic sectors. Whether you think it's a good idea or not, acceptable or not in the sense of market freedom, it's a rational move.

My counterpoint is that you can make a rational decision and still be wrong. Ad click business is how they can build a facial recognition database of 3 billion people, and China is uniquely positioned to immediately apply that dataset to training ML with military applications.

It's absolutely possible to be rational and yet wrong. It's also entirely possible to promote or allow something for a while and then decide it has finished serving its purpose.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#69

Post by systemvoltage »

avgDev wrote: post #52
piva00 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Good, US has been spending unfair share and has been the nanny of the world. Unfair share? Based on what? The spending is directly correlated to USA's interests, there is no nanny-ing or "good will" going on, it's a matter of purely international interests. Looking at this with the patronising "unfair share" is a bit preposterous. I'd say it's pretty unfair to a lot of countries being forced under the sphere of inf…

OP completely missing the point why US is spending so much money on military. US doesn't care about ANYONE but US. All moves and "nannying" is strategical in nature and to US benefit.

Nanny as in defense pacts and treaties with other nations, which is why the MIC is sustained. It’s a strategic tool. Selling defense equipment is big business.

Re: America Will Collapse by 2025 (2010)

#70

Post by vidanay »

wbsss4412 wrote: post #65
BitwiseFool wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the key unmentioned weakness of the United States is our economic system and monetary policy. Especially because of our ever increasing debt and deficit spending.

What do you pose is the implication of that?

Yeah, I don't really get that either. If push comes to shove and we (the US) devalue our currency, then all the other foreign debt holders are left holding the bag while we just suffer through a couple years of recession.
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