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Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

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Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#61

Post by dredmorbius »

01100011 wrote: post #59
stevenwoo wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The last fire came within five miles of Cupertino and people I know that live near to 280/Rancho San Antonio got evacuation warnings before the wind turned.

It's only a matter of time before Los Gatos, Saratoga, Almaden, etc suffer major fire damage. CalFire defensible space recommendations are largely ignored.

Also: Woodside, Mill Valley, Ross, Kentfield.

Mt. Tamalpais had major burns every decade or so from the 1860s through about 1930. It's had none since.

Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#62

Post by monocasa »

JPKab wrote: post #46
monocasa wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, the place that built the subdivision sues the crap out of anyone that tries to get more testing done. And there's a lot of methodological issues with the tests that they do have. Like using gamma radiation tests for plutonium contamination (plutonium is primarily an alpha emitter as it decays). Also the fuckers had the audacity to name the subdivision 'Candelas'. For those following along at home, Rocky Flats was…

I live in the subdivision. When you purchase a home there you are legally required to be provided and then sign a document that outlines the history of the Rocky Flats plutonium facility. I was provided this document and had to sign it as do every other homeowner here. What I've learned is that people who don't really know anyone that lives there or have never bothered to talk to anyone who purchased homes make assum…

> When you purchase a home there you are legally required to be provided and then sign a document that outlines the history of the Rocky Flats plutonium facility. I was provided this document and had to sign it as do every other homeowner here.

Let me guess, a document that also indemnifies the developers?

> As you pointed out plutonium is indeed in alpha emitter rather than gamma. It's also extremely heavy and oxidizes on contact with oxygen.

So no refutation of the core point. And we know it was oxidized; they lit it on fire. That doesn't stop it from being extremely dangerous.

> I have many photos of herds of elk in the refuge that surrounds the core site. It's not at all the wasteland that people make it out to be.

There's been a resurgence of wild life around Chernobyl too. That's not metric for nuclear waste contamination.

> Additionally your first statement claiming that a single company sues people who want to do testing is completely incorrect and can't be backed up by any references. I live here and I happen to know that no single company developed the subdivision.

Candelas LLC contracted out several home builders, but that doesn't change anything. At this point they seem to have taken their money and run though; it was dissolved in 2019.

> It was purposefully set up by the government of Arvada as a zone and split amongst multiple developers. Additionally more testing has been done in the land around the refuge which the developers have no control over or legal standing.

Testing in the refuge literally stopped the development of the Jefferson Parkway because there was a sample that was almost 20x the limit.

> As to testing within the subdivision, the homeowners can test whatever they want in their yards with no permission from the developers.

Do you know anyone who has tested?

> Like a lot of anti-nuclear misinformation it doesn't even make sense when you dig into it.

It's not coming from "anti-nuclear" sentiment, it's coming from "lot's of evidence that an extremely dangerous superfund site wasn't cleaned up". Here's Jefferson County's Executive Director of Public Health publicly calling out some of the issues. https://www.denverpost.com/2018/06/15/after-decades-of-secre...

Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#63

Post by monocasa »

JPKab wrote: post #44
justinator wrote: post #5

I don’t believe danger is imminent but it is incredible how close this fire is to the former Rocky Flats. This is the second time in as many years I’ve been surprised to see fires close enough to be viewed from the front yard - in exact opposite directions. I’m at the N Boulder rec center with my partner (a reporter) covering this for the NYT. Thankfully it seems quiet and the wind is dying down. Pray for snow!

I live west of Rocky Flats. I actually walked onto the now refuge that surrounds the plant tonight and took photos of the fires in the distance. It should be noted that the contaminated areas of Rocky flats are extremely secure and buried under massively overbuilt layers of concrete containments. The EPA milked the site for super fund money for probably a decade longer than it needed to for the cleanup. If you're won…

The remediation started in 1997, and ended in 2006, so I'm not sure how it could have lasted an extra decade given that it didn't last an entire decade total. And that was using only $7B of the original estimate of $35B.

Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#65

Post by dredmorbius »

pengaru wrote: post #34

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#m:advanced;d:24hrs...

Adding the caption: NASA LANCE | FIRMS Fire Map.

FIRMS Fire Map allows you to interactively browse the full archive of global active fire detections from MODIS and VIIRS. Near real-time fire data are available within approximately 3 hours of satellite overpass and imagery within 4-5 hours.

DO NOT USE FOR EMERGENCY PLANNING OR RESPONSE. Data are not realtime, and local authorities should be given precedence.

A slightly more useful view below:

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#m:advanced;d:24hrs...

Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#66

Post by dredmorbius »

mediocregopher wrote: post #49
Syonyk wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not an expert, but have done a lot of reading and some writing on wildfires, fire resistant structures, etc. I live on a hill that catches fire rather more often than I really enjoy and spend a lot of my spring cutting firebreaks. Any sort of structure, wood or not, will withstand a huge radiant flux of energy before catching fire. Well, well beyond what will crispy fry a human, the siding may be charred, but it won'…

> I would like to see some good studies on shutters, because they seem like the sort of thing that will make a very real difference on window breakage in storms, but they're not a thing anymore and probably won't come back. Having grown up in hurricane land, this statement stood out to me. Why did shutters go away? Why won't they come back?

Why did shutters go away?

That's one of those damned good questions.

I have thoughts, but I'd really like to see some solid information on how prevalent they were, what their previous rationale was, and what accounts for their decline.

On contemporary houses, if shutters exist at all, they're all but entirely decorative. Frequently they're on the inside of a house.

In hurricane-prone regions, shutters seem as if they'd make more sense than repeatedly boarding-up and unboarding windows.

Note that in the case of wildfire, embers entering into attic and crawlspace areas is a larger threat than direct radiant-heat compromise of windows, though ignition of interior furnishings (especially curtains or blinds) by radiant heat does occur. Still, window and other structure penetration shutters seem as if they'd be a potentially useful addition.

Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#67

Post by dredmorbius »

dntrkv wrote: post #29
throwaway984393 wrote: post #21

I'm wondering if fire-prone areas should be zoned to require fireproof building. No more wood homes/roofs. Europe generally doesn't use wood home construction, so doesn't seem crazy

I’m not an expert in the matter, but I’ve heard that modern wood frames are just as good as steel frames. If the fire is close and strong enough to ignite a wood stud, the steel stud would already fail. Though would love input from an expert here.

It's more the point that studs are not the key failure point of structures in the event of a fire. It's not that your studs are igniting and burning down the structure from inside the walls. It's that other structural elements are becoming engaged. Attic and crawlspaces especially, though also often porches, patios, and other extensions.

See this IBHS wildfire structure ember test video:

https://yewtu.be/watch?v=IvbNOPSYyss

Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#68

Post by dredmorbius »

LukeShu wrote: post #57
throwaway984393 wrote: post #21

I'm wondering if fire-prone areas should be zoned to require fireproof building. No more wood homes/roofs. Europe generally doesn't use wood home construction, so doesn't seem crazy

> fire-prone areas This isn't in the foothills, where fires are expected. This is where no one expected a fire like this.

Expectations have now changed.

This is, incidentally, a key issue in risk management: risk profiles and threat models are not a constant. The model is a reflection of reality, and if reality changes, the model should change with it.

Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#69

Post by tamaharbor »

JPKab wrote: post #48
nyokodo wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would assume it wouldn't be a Good Thing for that place to also be on fire. The radioactive stuff was all removed or well buried. I’m more worried about the large subdivision built on the site burning down.

The remediations are massive concrete structures covering large swaths of the ground. A brush fire being pushed by heavy winds isn't going to do anything to it. Additionally the large subdivision was not built on the site but surrounding the perimeter to the site. The core site is off limits to anyone as a precaution to prevent anyone from tampering with the remediations or deliberately vandalizing them. Surrounding…

But what about the several plutonium fires during Rocky Flats operation and the associated plumes of contamination to the immediate south then east of the plant?

Re: Wind whipped fires raging through Boulder County

#70

Post by rconti »

davesque wrote: post #17
rconti wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a Coloradan, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express in Boulder on my trip this summer... It's the end of December and apparently there's no snow (!!?) at 5000ft in Colorado? Insane.

Lifelong Boulderite here. No snow on the ground is very typical during winter. If it does snow, it often doesn't stick around for very long since Colorado gets a lot of sunshine. However, it has still been unusually dry. Fires have been getting worse and worse every year, but always during the summer and fall months. I've never seen anything like this during winter in my whole life.

Thanks- my wife went to Fort Collins and talked about it always being sunny and nice between snows, but I didn't realize the ground cleared completely; I figured it would be too cold for that (another frequent component to her stories :) )
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