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South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

washingtonpost.com

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Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#61
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Virus just wants to replicate and spread as much as possible. Sometimes the side effect of this is death etc. If this one spreads super fast, has generally more mild effects... it will ramp up faster, infect all, and may get more severe so that it can last longer in the host and spread more. But the combo of high infectiousness and more mild side effects might be a net negative for this one. If we get a good amount o…

super fast spread even with milder effects will still meant overwhelming healthcare capacity let's not even go near the notion that more infection means brewing more variants we've never entertained herd immunity for polio, why covid..

It only means overwhelmed healthcare if the hospitalisation/requirement for healthcare rate is high enough.

If this variant is 5x more infectious, but 5x less likely to result in hospitalisation, the net effect on healthcare resources should remain level, no?

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#62

I was at Costco this morning (DFW) buying a big hunk of Prime Rib for Christmas Day dinner. No one either knows or cares anymore. I'm still wearing a mask for facial recognition purposes but I'm starting to feel weird considering no one else is wearing a mask anymore, not even the folks who look like they got one foot in the grave already. Omicron is already so yesterday it isn't even a memory.

I find it mind-boggling that a person could live through nearly 2 years of this pandemic and still not understand how hospitalizations lag cases and deaths lag hospitalizations by a number of weeks. I'm optimistic about Omicron, but I'm not going to pretend I don't know the pattern we have seen over and over and over again.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#63

I was at Costco this morning (DFW) buying a big hunk of Prime Rib for Christmas Day dinner. No one either knows or cares anymore. I'm still wearing a mask for facial recognition purposes but I'm starting to feel weird considering no one else is wearing a mask anymore, not even the folks who look like they got one foot in the grave already. Omicron is already so yesterday it isn't even a memory.

Where are you? Everyone where I am in Southern California still wears a mask inside.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#64

The panic surrounding Omicron is absurd. Take a look at these two charts. Omicron cases spiked in SA. Deaths didn't budge. At all. https://i.imgur.com/TgRmz4F.png [1] Omicron is a good thing, if your baseline is Delta. But I'm still waiting for the US media stop hyperventilating about it. 1. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...

That chart is misleading; the rise/spike in deaths is always delayed from the rise/spike in cases.

It does seem like Omicron is less deadly than Delta. The big concern is that because it's so significantly more contagious, that even though a smaller percentage of infected people will require ventilators, the absolute number will be high enough to overwhelm hospitals.

Sources: Dr. John Campbell, Dr. Larry Brilliant (WHO) https://youtu.be/YdVymGK3OzM https://youtu.be/ltXkJTSBeaE

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#65
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been discussed many times before - the issue with the SA data is that 80% of the population have been exposed to the virus (either had it or have been vaccinated) so the deaths not budging there can be very misleading for countries with lower vaccination rates.

Can anyone point to an official worldwide number of deaths attributable to Omicron?

Take this with a heap of salt but I looked for this figure yesterday and found it to be 12 in several sources, but hard to find the official figures. Share them if you do find them!

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#66

I was at Costco this morning (DFW) buying a big hunk of Prime Rib for Christmas Day dinner. No one either knows or cares anymore. I'm still wearing a mask for facial recognition purposes but I'm starting to feel weird considering no one else is wearing a mask anymore, not even the folks who look like they got one foot in the grave already. Omicron is already so yesterday it isn't even a memory.

Even leaving aside covid concerns, I'd love for sanitizer stations and mask wearing in grocery stores to become the new normal. I don't want the general public sneezing on my food - especially during flu season.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#67
post #21

The panic surrounding Omicron is absurd. Take a look at these two charts. Omicron cases spiked in SA. Deaths didn't budge. At all. https://i.imgur.com/TgRmz4F.png [1] Omicron is a good thing, if your baseline is Delta. But I'm still waiting for the US media stop hyperventilating about it. 1. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...

I saw some charts out of South Africa today showing that deaths are starting to rise with a three week delay. I'm optimistic that Omicron is less severe, but it's also possible that it's just taking a little longer than expected to start killing people.

They might be, but the fact that the case rate is now falling means that whatever increase is seen in deaths will be very short-lived. That is something to be thankful for, since Delta has been killing large numbers of people worldwide over a very long period of time.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#68

The panic surrounding Omicron is absurd. Take a look at these two charts. Omicron cases spiked in SA. Deaths didn't budge. At all. https://i.imgur.com/TgRmz4F.png [1] Omicron is a good thing, if your baseline is Delta. But I'm still waiting for the US media stop hyperventilating about it. 1. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...

Denmark is the other country with an Omicron-fueled spike, but they have a corresponding increase in deaths:

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#69
post #14

Am I the only one who reads these less than scientific articles as much more than wishful thinking? I mean, I hope this pandemic comes to a close as much as anyone but so many of the recent news articles about the omicron variant being our collective way out of this pandemic seem a bit premature. I understand the theory that viruses become more contagious and less deadly over time but is there an real, peer reviewed…

There's been no time to have real, peer reviewed science to make a definitive conclusion either way. All we have is preliminary data which seems to be trending towards the positive.

The sensationalist flip-flopping media reports have been mostly unhelpful. I've been swinging between "this is wishful thinking and it's going to be really bad" to "this is overly dramatic and it's going to be ok" for the past few weeks. I've been feeling more of the latter recently, but I'm still not 100% certain. Call it cautious optimism.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#70
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has been discussed many times before - the issue with the SA data is that 80% of the population have been exposed to the virus (either had it or have been vaccinated) so the deaths not budging there can be very misleading for countries with lower vaccination rates.

Can anyone point to an official worldwide number of deaths attributable to Omicron?

Such a number would be difficult to interpret, or entirely meaningless, without understanding the classification methods and policies of each constituent region. This also holds true of overall death statistics.

Finally with local statistics, you still have political dramatics like https://twitter.com/dancohen3000/status/1473480933579923456

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