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Omicron Update, Dec 2

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

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Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#61

Post by Geezus-42 »

beagle3 wrote: post #48
FourHand451 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. Plenty of people live their whole lives without catching smallpox or polio. We have/can develop effective vaccines for COVID. Why should it be different?

No people have gone through their life without catching the cold and very few without catching the flu at least once, despite having flu vaccines for a few decades now. Not all viruses are the same, and sarscov2 is much more like cold/flu than polio. Specifically, saracov2 has reservoirs in animals. Unless you had an effective vaccine that also works for cats, dogs, deer etc and the ability to actually deploy it (thi…

Create an animal vaccine, give hunters dart guns and free rein to shoot as many as they can. Then see what happens.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#62

Post by adam_arthur »

tremon wrote: post #55
adam_arthur wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid is spreading at a similar rate today in most countries as it did when it first struck and there was no vaccine at all. Look at the trends in Italy, UK, US, for example. I agree the vaccine helps, but there is no clear impact on reducing spread if you look at infection data in aggregate. We've gone from 0% vaccinated, to 60-70% with no discernable dip in infection counts.

You still can't compare those trends, because many of those countries have relaxed their lockdown measures after reaching a certain level of vaccination. When looking at hospitalization rates instead of only case rates, it seems that the countries with high levels of vaccination are seeing a much lower percentage of cases ending up in hospital. Taking for example the NL numbers: we have twice as many cases/day as dur…

I never disputed that vaccines mitigate effect of the virus. It's clear that they do, which will limit hospitalizations.

I am disputing that lockdowns have led to any discernable difference in outcomes over the long run in regards to case counts.

New Zealand may be the special case where they were able to actually completely halt inbound travel. But obviously their situation doesn't generalize.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#63

Post by y4mi »

tremon wrote: post #7
y4mi wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i don't have any domain knowledge so i cannot build an opinion on the matter, but the fact that they discovered it doesn't give them more authority on the topic then everyone else. most researchers i've heard on the topic only said "we will have to pay close attention to it", which sounds pretty reasonable from my uneducated perspective.

Both the name and the picture in the article would suggest that "he" is, in all likelihood, a she.

I corrected it to they, sorry for using a gendered pronoun. It sometimes slips my mind, as I never really thought about "he" being male in this kind of context. I will pay more attention to it.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#64

Post by piva00 »

shmatt wrote: post #15
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Not an official study but just an observation - its very possible to avoid lockdowns so far, by implementing true vaccine passports. Israel did that without any shutdowns during the 4th wave. Basically banning non-vaccinated people from most public areas and by true, that means something you can actually validate isn't fake, while checking for ID at the same time. And also not allowing in un-vaccinated children becau…

> Not an official study but just an observation - its very possible to avoid lockdowns so far, by implementing true vaccine passports. Israel did that without any shutdowns during the 4th wave. Basically banning non-vaccinated people from most public areas

You are just pushing the work to be done by low-level employees at this point. Yes, it can work for a while but go talk to anyone who works in public event spaces (theaters, bars, cinemas, etc.) in, for example, Germany and you will see how much fatigue this causes.

And what happens when people get fatigued due to the extra workload created by forcing these measures to be taken by small businesses? People get sloppy, they get tired of a procedure that usually would take 2 minutes taking 15, chipping time away from other duties they are responsible for (and supervised). Over time they stop doing the checks properly and just like with other COVID measures, becomes increasingly ineffective.

I only had this realisation after chatting with some friends of friends in Berlin working in hospitality (hotels, bars, etc.) and events, almost every single one of them were exhausted from having to perform the extra checks on every customer, every shift, every play, every table they sit. They were trying really hard to not get sloppy because they actually care about the people, but it was clear how it was affecting them. It didn't look as a sustainable measure against COVID after 2 years of a pandemic.

That was also the fear I read voiced by experts during the first 6 months of the pandemic: people will get tired of the measures, when they get tired and don't follow them anymore it gets much worse. How to balance that is exactly all this political game going on, there is no simple solution when we talk about population levels of a nation.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#65

Post by simonh »

adam_arthur wrote: post #58
simonh wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't stop it dead, but we can dramatically reduce the number of critical illnesses and deaths, and have done so in many countries. I'm a Brit and our lockdown and vaccination policy has been extremely effective. We've largely lived normal lives since the summer, with low case rates and very low mortality thanks to strong vaccine uptake and popular support for protective measures. If we need to lock down again, we…

The UK has roughly equivalent covid deaths per capita as the USA, where vast parts of the country never locked down and still by and large don't wear masks or get vaccinated. Did the stricter lockdowns make a difference in the end?

Were demographically and geographically completely different. Our population is much denser, more like a populous US state than a sprawling continental giant. People used to compare virus control in the US to places like Singapore and New Zealand, as though their ability to control the virus has any lessons that are realistically applicable.

We were hammered early on because we are very highly connected with the rest of the world. London is very international, and Heathrow is one of the busiest airports in the world, out of proportion to our population size. We were always going to take a heavy hit.

Nevertheless as soon as vaccines became available we have had broad adoption, and ever since we've been reaping the rewards. Delta arrived here early, but by then our vaccine take up was enough that it didn't really make as much of an impact on us as it has elsewhere.

It's just amazing to me that in 2021 here on HN the fact that vaccines protect against viruses is an actual question, or in any way political.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#66

Post by tremon »

adam_arthur wrote: post #60
CabSauce wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're trying to find data to fit your pre-determined conclusion. We're dealing with different variants now, which are more contagious.

What data to fit my conclusion? I'm referencing hard data, and the dissenters here are not. If you disagree, use hard data to support your assertions that vaccines have noticeably reduced infection rate. The one following the science is the one using the data, by the way. Anything else is religion.

You're not referencing any data at all, just handwaving at it. You're only comparing the raw infection rates without taking into account the amount of mitigating measures such as mask mandates, work-from-home orders, and closing of schools, restaurants and bars. Last year's numbers were all achieved with very stringent lockdowns and school closures; pretty much all those countries returned to classroom teaching in September of this year.

So no, you don't get to claim "hard data" on your opinion.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#67

Post by junon »

seafoam wrote: post #52
loeg wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That, and vaccination does reduce transmission in addition to disease severity.

Vaccination reduces positive PCR test results in the weeks after the jab. It is not for sure that it reduces community transmission. In the US, the CDC stopped publishing the data one would need to get answers on this in May. For some reason.

> It is not for sure that it reduces community transmission.

Citation please, because you're challenging the entire field of immunology here.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#68

Post by adam_arthur »

tremon wrote: post #66
adam_arthur wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What data to fit my conclusion? I'm referencing hard data, and the dissenters here are not. If you disagree, use hard data to support your assertions that vaccines have noticeably reduced infection rate. The one following the science is the one using the data, by the way. Anything else is religion.

You're not referencing any data at all, just handwaving at it. You're only comparing the raw infection rates without taking into account the amount of mitigating measures such as mask mandates, work-from-home orders, and closing of schools, restaurants and bars. Last year's numbers were all achieved with very stringent lockdowns and school closures; pretty much all those countries returned to classroom teaching in Se…

I stated that case counts today are roughly equivalent to pre-vaccine times in most countries

This is called verifiable data.

Also the numbers in the US south are roughly equivalent to the east/west that had much more stringent lockdown, mask, and vaccine measures.

If these policies had any significant impact, you would see a large disparity in outcomes of TX, FL, vs NY, CA.

This is also verifiable data. Prove me wrong with data showing FL and TX had worse outcomes in regards to infections to blue states with strict measures.

If you can't show a significant difference in outcome, reassessing your firmly held beliefs that have been proven wrong through data is called "following the science".

Most lockdown proponents are following religion, and what they desire to be true, than science.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#69

Post by taylodl »

adam_arthur wrote: post #62
tremon wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You still can't compare those trends, because many of those countries have relaxed their lockdown measures after reaching a certain level of vaccination. When looking at hospitalization rates instead of only case rates, it seems that the countries with high levels of vaccination are seeing a much lower percentage of cases ending up in hospital. Taking for example the NL numbers: we have twice as many cases/day as dur…

I never disputed that vaccines mitigate effect of the virus. It's clear that they do, which will limit hospitalizations. I am disputing that lockdowns have led to any discernable difference in outcomes over the long run in regards to case counts. New Zealand may be the special case where they were able to actually completely halt inbound travel. But obviously their situation doesn't generalize.

Lockdowns were implemented to prevent the collapse of the medical system. Lockdowns have been repealed with the advent of vaccines. Why? Because those vaccinated who get COVID get much milder cases and don't typically require hospitalization, and for the few that do, they don't require ICU. Lockdowns weren't implemented to reduce case counts per se, they were implemented to prevent medical system collapse.

The vaccines have been instrumental in getting back to normal.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#70

Post by taylodl »

adam_arthur wrote: post #26
simonh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widespread vaccination dramatically reduces the rate at which the virus spreads, by more than 80%. It's not a binary does/doesn't stop spreading. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z Vaccination rates in the US have been abysmal by developed world status, precisely because so many of you don't think vaccination works. It does work to dramatically slow spreading, but only if enough people take it up.

Yes, of course. But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling. Covid is here forever, and that's life.

> Covid is here forever, and that's life.

Good thing we didn't take that attitude with smallpox. Or polio. We have eradicated disease. It's not like we've never done this before.

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