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All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

blog.viveksrinivasan.com

61–70 of 78 posts

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#61
post #7
post #5

Gaming is ahead here, they thought subscriptions was the future 15 years ago and everyone tried to make subscription games. Then free to play with microtransactions came around and completely turned that on its head, microtransactions generates way more revenue than subscriptions! It might not apply to every field, but it is wrong to say that everything will turn into subscriptions.

Microsoft Gamepass is a subscription for gaming that is very popular. Netflix are building something similar right now. No doubt Sony have their own version in the works too.

Microsoft Gamepass is tiny, Fortnite alone makes way more money than Gamepass. And you have a lot of popular free to play microtransaction games with scale similar to Gamepass. So at the moment subscription model for games is basically dead, some do it but most of the industry is going where the money is at: microtransactions.

There is still demand for non microtransaction games, yes, but that part of the market is still tiny. Microsoft gamepass is them trying to capture a chunk of that part, but likely it will never compete with the microtransaction games.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#62
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe not everyone wants or can afford a gaming computer? Being able to play any game from a tablet, phone, laptop or TV is very useful. And at the current costs of hardware, and the evolution of hardware requirements, even 2-3 subscription services come out cheaper than building an equivalent gaming rig.

Maybe. A near-top of the line gaming rig (pre-chip shortage) would cost about $3kUSD and my last one is only just now starting to get weak from 2018, so it lasts you about 4-5 years. So as long as all your subscriptions and other costs come in less than ~$50USD per month, you’re probably saving money. Edit to add: upgrading the graphics card nets another 2-3 years instead of replacing the entire machine. Which probab…

If you have Stadia Premium ( not necessary, you can play the free version), GeForce Now, Microsoft Game pass ( which comes with XCloud gaming whatever), you're at <$40 (~$35 if my calculations are correct). There's also the advantage that you can start and stop them at will(per month), so for instance if you go on a vacation for a month and know you won't play at all you can cancel them all ( and even continue playing all the games you've bought on Stadia for free).

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#63
post #8
post #5

Gaming is ahead here, they thought subscriptions was the future 15 years ago and everyone tried to make subscription games. Then free to play with microtransactions came around and completely turned that on its head, microtransactions generates way more revenue than subscriptions! It might not apply to every field, but it is wrong to say that everything will turn into subscriptions.

Some in the gaming industry tried/are trying hard to make Netflix of gaming subscription work. Micro transactions work right now but maybe tomorrow it is subscription based gaming again.

The difference between movies and games is that popular games become entire entertainment platforms on their own. Fortnites revenue is about 20% of Netflix entire revenue, it would be really hard to convince them to join some subscription service.

And the second point, for games using a subscription service isn't cheaper. Fortnite is free to play, most people doesn't pay much so spending all your time in Fortnite and not using those subscriptions is the cheapest option for entertainment.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#66
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s what happened in communist Poland. When a doctor makes the same amount as a receptionist or a street sweeper the motivation to be a doctor is pretty low.

Respect and power are still strong drivers

Under Iron Curtain in Poland all the respect and power were in the hands of car mechanics and meat shop clerks.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#67
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would never own a car. But I suppose I don't want to drive a car that is older than 3 years and I don't enjoy selling used cars. I prefer the freedom I get to just hand the car back after 3 years and don't have to think about it anymore. Also no unexpected service costs and so on.

That’s exactly how trade-in works at a dealership though.

Then they're both pretty similar then or what?

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. Which is why there is a war on durable goods, such as trying to develop viable cloud gaming to replace people's gaming computers with subscription services.

I like these services a lot. I only need a laptop for my daily stuff, but once in a while (once a month?) i want to play a AAA Game. A gaming PC would be a waste of money.

That doesn't mean you don't want a durable good at all. It means you want a durable good (the daily stuff laptop) plus occasional access to a particular service (playing a game). But many businesses would prefer that you give up the durable good altogether--that instead of your laptop for daily stuff, you entrust all your data and computing capacity to "the cloud" and just access it from your smartphone, which in their model you are basically renting from your phone provider.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#69
post #50
post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

> But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. It makes complete sense if you see the downsides of ownership outweighing the upsides. You just have to separate the thing, ownership of the thing, and the job that it does. If you derive some value just from owning a car that’s fine, but if its job is to get you from A to B, renting and Uber can both be…

> if its job is to get you from A to B, renting and Uber can both be valid options over buying

For some people, perhaps. But you give up a lot of flexibility when you give up ownership. It's not just a matter of "the job" the thing does; transportation is not a single "job", it's an enabler for many, many different "jobs". And if you don't own any means of transportation, your ability to do all those things is dependent on some other entity, probably a faceless corporation that does not care whether you can get from A to B or not, it only cares about whether it can make money. Or, in the case of public transportation, a government in which your personal interest is rounding error compared to the powerful interests that influence what the government does. It may seem to you that in your personal situation, services like renting and Uber, or public transportation, are there whenever you need them and trusting that that will always be the case seems like a good deal. But historically, deals like that have a way of going sideways when you least expect it and can least afford it. At the very least, it's a good idea to always have a plan B in mind.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#70
post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

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