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U.S. Treasury Data Lab

datalab.usaspending.gov

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Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#61

Post by throwaway34241 »

jkhdigital wrote: post #33
darawk wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." Alan Greenspan While this is partially true: 1. Sovereign nations absolutely can and do default. See, Russia in the 1990s and the LTCM fiasco. 2. Even though they do not have to default and can always print money to pay their debts, doing so causes inflation. How much inflation it cause…

And the line between “acceptable consequences” and “catastrophic consequences” is basically unknowable, so it’s not a bad idea to err on the side of caution.

> so it’s not a bad idea to err on the side of caution

Over time it's gotten harder for me to figure out what the side of caution even is. If they are too aggressive in stimulating the economy, they risk inflation. If they are not aggressive enough they risk a persistently weak economy, escalating political dysfunction, and (if history is a guide) eventual collapse of the status quo and usually even-more-inflationary policies.

It doesn't seem like there is a safe path anywhere - errors on either side seem like they could be potentially catastrophic.

Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#62

Post by throwaway34241 »

Gabriel_Martin wrote: post #27
phkahler wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analogies are good to help people see that government debt is bad. When a person is in over their head, they can possibly file for bankruptcy. When a government gets in over their head bad things happen too, up to and including wars. Comparing government debt to personal debt is just a way to make it more comprehensible how bad the situation is.

These are the exact sentiments I believe personal/household finance analogies evoke, and basically why I oppose their use. It evokes comparisons to some kind of possibility of something happening analogous to bankruptcy when in fact: "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." Alan Greenspan So yeah, it's just my opinion but to me…

Not to mention unless you print money everyone can't save money at the same time - so the "saving is good / debt is bad" intuition from the household analogy can't hold up mathematically.

In reality, savings and debt are basically two sides of the same coin - one is a promise for future consumption, and the other is a promise to forgo future consumption that balances it out.

One of my favorite simple models is sectoral balances - you can divide US dollar holders into domestic and foreign categories, and then divide up the domestic category into the private sector and the government (leaving 3 categories total).

If you don't print money, the net saving should all add up to zero. If the government is running a surplus, that means the combination of the private and foreign sector is going into debt. If there's a trade deficit, then the combo of the private sector and government are going into debt. Etc.

People can still be against government deficits with such a model, but it's not because everyone should save up at the same time (they literally can't). It's because they want the private sector to go into more debt, and are worried about government debt "crowding out" private sector debt. And more private sector debt isn't always a bad thing - in practice it might mean more housing, factories, and other sorts of investments that debt finances.

Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#63

Post by ur-whale »

TL;DR:

>In 2020, the federal government collected $3.42 trillion in revenue.

>In 2020, the federal government spent $6.55 trillion.

One wonders why they bother with the effort of collecting taxes.

They should just borrow the entire budget and let everyone get on with their lives.

They'd save money in the long run: no more IRS budget.

Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#64

Post by gone35 »

Gabriel_Martin wrote: post #27
phkahler wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analogies are good to help people see that government debt is bad. When a person is in over their head, they can possibly file for bankruptcy. When a government gets in over their head bad things happen too, up to and including wars. Comparing government debt to personal debt is just a way to make it more comprehensible how bad the situation is.

These are the exact sentiments I believe personal/household finance analogies evoke, and basically why I oppose their use. It evokes comparisons to some kind of possibility of something happening analogous to bankruptcy when in fact: "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." Alan Greenspan So yeah, it's just my opinion but to me…

^This is correct, demonstrably.

Unlike at the micro level, at the macro level your spending is my income.

That alone changes (almost every) received microeconomic intuition.

Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#65

Post by jasonwatkinspdx »

gone35 wrote: post #64
Gabriel_Martin wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are the exact sentiments I believe personal/household finance analogies evoke, and basically why I oppose their use. It evokes comparisons to some kind of possibility of something happening analogous to bankruptcy when in fact: "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." Alan Greenspan So yeah, it's just my opinion but to me…

^This is correct, demonstrably. Unlike at the micro level, at the macro level your spending is my income. That alone changes (almost every) received microeconomic intuition.

This is the exact framing that's worked to get things across to friends that have gotten confused by some fear mongering propaganda using the personal finance metaphor. It naturally leads into explaining how potential deflation needs to be address in a way very from being thrifty personally.

Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#67

Post by lvl100 »

tomrod wrote: post #43
lvl100 wrote: post #23

Please don’t tell me they spent millions in govt contract money so some recent college grad can practice Plotly/Bokeh.

> Your Guide to America's Finances is a re-invention of the Citizen’s Guide to the Financial Report of the U.S. Government. This site was created in response to the public’s desire to learn more about the financial picture of the United States. Where does the money come from? Where does it go? What are the trends over time, and how does the U.S. compare to other countries? This guide was created to make federal finan…

The underlying data has been available. This is just a cosmetic wrapper. And I guarantee you they spent well in excess of $10M to create this website.

Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#68

Post by lumost »

Gabriel_Martin wrote: post #27
phkahler wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analogies are good to help people see that government debt is bad. When a person is in over their head, they can possibly file for bankruptcy. When a government gets in over their head bad things happen too, up to and including wars. Comparing government debt to personal debt is just a way to make it more comprehensible how bad the situation is.

These are the exact sentiments I believe personal/household finance analogies evoke, and basically why I oppose their use. It evokes comparisons to some kind of possibility of something happening analogous to bankruptcy when in fact: "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." Alan Greenspan So yeah, it's just my opinion but to me…

This assumes that the us has an unlimited ability to monetize its debt. If this is not true than there could be a hard landing for federal borrowing. This was briefly tested in the 1970s when the carter administration issued debt in foreign currency.

The fed could find itself in the position of fighting a structural imbalance such that for every dollar lent to the government the deficit increases by 1.X dollars. This would be the case under rampant corruption, rampant inflation, or an economy collapsing.

Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#69

Post by phkahler »

Gabriel_Martin wrote: post #27
phkahler wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analogies are good to help people see that government debt is bad. When a person is in over their head, they can possibly file for bankruptcy. When a government gets in over their head bad things happen too, up to and including wars. Comparing government debt to personal debt is just a way to make it more comprehensible how bad the situation is.

These are the exact sentiments I believe personal/household finance analogies evoke, and basically why I oppose their use. It evokes comparisons to some kind of possibility of something happening analogous to bankruptcy when in fact: "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." Alan Greenspan So yeah, it's just my opinion but to me…

>> "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." Alan Greenspan

That has negative consequences that are papered over by making simplistic statements like that. The debt is still bad and going to result in bad things happening, and no platitudes from the Fed are going to change that.

Re: U.S. Treasury Data Lab

#70

Post by cambrianentropy »

ur-whale wrote: post #63

TL;DR: >In 2020, the federal government collected $3.42 trillion in revenue. >In 2020, the federal government spent $6.55 trillion. One wonders why they bother with the effort of collecting taxes. They should just borrow the entire budget and let everyone get on with their lives. They'd save money in the long run: no more IRS budget.

Taxes are necessary to curb inflation.
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