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Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#61

Post by pibechorro »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #37
CodeGlitch wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lorry drivers getting 40% higher pay: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-... In fact I can see this happening across many industries, and if you are one of those people working minimum wage can only be a good thing? The import of cheap labour does push down the wages of the working class - so the middle/upper classes get to buy cheaper fruit... I believe farmers will have to work with this ne…

Wonder if it will cause high inflation, and if that’ll force up interest rates

It will. And they will avoid at all costs to raise it, for higher interest rates will default everyone over leveraged, which is everything and everyone at this point outside of the preppers and Libertarian types which have been yelling about this for a long time now.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#62

Post by tomp »

mmarq wrote: post #54
tomp wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how all the elite arguments that immigration doesn't reduce wages (which the working class always thought were complete bullshit) were proved to be complete bullshit during the pandemic-related border closures. Of course, the discussion about what to do about that remains - open borders & keep wages low, or close borders & raise local wages, or close borders & keep wages low & invest in automation - but it's n…

There’s no opposition to gaslight, the vast majority of the population believes the myth of immigration reducing wages, while there’s no evidence of it being true (you are welcome to provide some). This vast majority is not the opposition, but the force that elected the past 3-4 conservative and euro-skeptic governments that gave us the “hostile environment for foreigners”. In the UK, EU nationals earn more than the…

The proof is in the pudding: "we can't find local workers willing to work for these low wages so we'll import them from abroad".

A lot of EU immigrants come to London to work in tech/finance because they offer higher wages than pretty much anywhere on the continent (I was one of them). But the working class is pretty far removed from the effect of professional-class immigration.

The UK has many other structural problems so collapsing the whole Brexit discussion into one dimension is a bit of an over-simplification, though if you asked me to do the PCA, I'd say the main cause was "protest vote". (Pre-BJ governments weren't Euro-sceptic.)

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#63

Post by quickthrower2 »

radiator wrote: post #51
quickthrower2 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How you get paid doesn’t matter. Convert it all to crypto if you want on payday.

But that would be only half the solution. If the value of fiat decreases daily, then you should also negotiate a salary raise every month? Most people do not get raises more than once per year.

Cryptoo is too volatile vs. goods and services.

If you negotiate a 2 BTC/y salary for example you could be rich or flat broke next year depending on factors such as if Elon Musk is pro-dog-based-coin or pro-original-coin

You’d quit if the monthly 1/6 BTC salt was worthless so the job is effectively a call option on BTC

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#64

Post by prawn »

nly wrote: post #44

Housing is anything from a third to 50% of the average UK earners take home income. Median house price to median income ratios are at historically high levels[0], and rents are now also rising[1] Either wages need to rise or house prices need to fall. [0] If you look at somewhere mundane like Essex the median 'affordability ratio', as measured by the Office of National Statistics ( https://tinyurl.com/x5jatcx8 ), was…

I'd be tackling housing prices. I think wages (in AU, at least) already render many small businesses unviable.

Historically in Australia, it's seemed like houses have doubled in price every 10 years. More recently, it's seemed like every 5 years. A house I bought 10 years ago would now be 2.5* that as land value alone. A building I bought has apparently doubled in value in five years.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#65

Post by mschuster91 »

api wrote: post #17

Good. Wages must be forced up. You can’t have a modern economy without a capitalized middle class. Real estate is so ludicrous we need quite a bit of inflation to make it reasonable again. The alternative would be a deflationary crash where real estate crashes and obliterates everyone’s home equity, but that is far more painful to virtually everyone.

> Real estate is so ludicrous we need quite a bit of inflation to make it reasonable again.

Alternatively, we could invest in rural areas and other left-behind areas ("flyover states" in the US, Eastern Germany in Germany). Right now, the infrastructure there is flat-out unable to sustain quality modern human life unless you're Amish and fine with travelling on horseback: no high speed internet, no public transport, road and rail infrastructure are crumbling apart, no business opportunities, no education, no entertainment, no access to healthcare.

The demand for urban housing is so immense because urban areas are the only places to enjoy modern living. Making rural areas inhabitable again would take away a lot of the pressure.

Additionally, we could go and use eminent domain against foreign (especially Chinese) speculators who use Western urban housing solely as a "safeguard" for their wealth against the CCP. The side effect from doing that would be that it increases the pressure inside China against the CCP - when people suddenly have nowhere to hide their assets from the CCP, they will have to demand an end to the CCPs unilateral seizures.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#66

Post by NiceWayToDoIT »

jenscow wrote: post #60
NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #52

This reminds me of David Graeber's story on how during one of the pandemics, a plague killed so many people in the UK that those who left got rich by inheriting land and by increasing wages, as there was no one to work. In the case of UK there was a superstorm of Brexit, IR35 change, and pandemic all in one - adding to the issue for employers. But in a way, I do not see this as an issue but a chance to equalize wealt…

Or just increase wages and increase prices.

Second part is not that simple in global economy if you have Chinese cheap labor as direct competitors especially in the food industry where margins for farmers are already too low.

I would recommend Jeremy Clarkson - "Clarkson's Farm" first year of operation on a 300 acres farm made a yearly profit of £144 :)

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#68

Post by quickthrower2 »

adrianb wrote: post #58
quickthrower2 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They might but it may not push up house prices

How so? If these days a house listed for x gets offers at x+10%, after average wages increase it will receive offers at x+20%. Is there any historical precedent of house prices not rising faster than inflation, absent external factors? I think a major correction of house prices can happen in two ways: - economic catastrophe (everyone's unemployed) / war / natural disaster / ... - we wouldn't want to buy a house anywa…

High inflation -> higher internet rates -> lower income multiples for loans + higher rental yields to support interest rates.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#69

Post by PragmaticPulp »

When a few companies or industries can’t find enough labor, the solution is simple: Raise wages to attract a larger percentage of the labor pool.

When every company and industry is struggling to hire, raising wages is still necessary but it no longer fixes the bigger problem. Those higher wages aren’t producing more labor, they’re just convincing employees with jobs to switch to other jobs. Switching jobs creates a vacancy in the old position. One job opening filled, one job opening created. Net zero.

The pandemic shook a lot of people out of the labor market. Everything from people who were on the verge of retirement anyway to people who were forced to stay home with the kids because schools and daycares were closed. Until labor market participation returns to pre-pandemic levels, the labor shortages will continue.

Employees win in the short term as companies have no choice but to raise wages to fill positions. The flip side is that inflation will certainly follow as rising wages give people more money to spend (demand up) while labor shortages drive supply down. Demand up, supply down means prices go up.

Which ironically could be the impetus that gives people who left the labor market no choice but to return to work: When everything is getting more expensive, people may have no choice but to return to the labor market to earn enough to support their families. It’s going to be interesting to see this settle.

Re: Job vacancies surge past one million in new record

#70

Post by nly »

pibechorro wrote: post #56
nly wrote: post #44

Housing is anything from a third to 50% of the average UK earners take home income. Median house price to median income ratios are at historically high levels[0], and rents are now also rising[1] Either wages need to rise or house prices need to fall. [0] If you look at somewhere mundane like Essex the median 'affordability ratio', as measured by the Office of National Statistics ( https://tinyurl.com/x5jatcx8 ), was…

Inflation will make any increase in wages meaningless. It will also further drive investment into housing to escape the free falling cash. The answer is no lockdowns, no bailouts, and no quantitative money printing to oblivion. Let the everything bubble pop and start over with sound first principles. We will get there, but not before politicians make it worse and delay the inevitable defaults.

- Boris Johnson (the British Prime Minister) sold his London family home in 2019 for £3.75M after having rented it out for £2000/week (just under 4x the national average income) while living in his Government provided accommodation in his role as Foreign Secretary (2016-2018).[0]

- Property prices have shot up 10% during the pandemic, bolstered in part by the Government cutting stamp duty on sales.

- A few days ago the Government raised National Insurance (which is an income tax) on all workers to pay for social care while protecting property wealth with a contribution cap.

Nobody in power is popping the property asset bubble in the UK any time soon. It's a sacred cow.

I'm in the top 2% of earners by income in the UK and I'm still completely priced out of wrt to buying a modest family home (or flat) a humane, commutable distance of central London. Price/Income ratios are too high even for me because I'm competing with my peers. It's a supply problem, and a problem of foreign investment and bad incentive schemes.

[0] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-clingin...

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