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Firefighters bring large battery fire near Geelong under control

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Re: Firefighters bring large battery fire near Geelong under control

#61

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Fire root cause analysis is tricky. There is a high probability that no precise root cause will ever be identified.

Am I naive if I expect these systems to be crammed full of sensors logged on-site and remotely?

Not at all. And this happened during testing for the battery’s commissioning, so there should be a lot of eyeballs on the monitoring.

Re: Firefighters bring large battery fire near Geelong under control

#62
post #49
post #37

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It's been... interesting watching Tesla migrate from their more oddball technical decisions to using the same tech as the rest of the industry. LFP is a really conventional tech for stationary storage as well as vehicle applications with less demanding power-to-weight requirements. They also seem to have mostly switched from the AC motors that inspired their name to permanent magnet brushless motors like the rest of…

Conventional wisdom is that grid storage product was offered because battery production was outstripping what they could ship in cars at the time. Remember that heavy industry isn't like software, you don't get to Just Decide to match the product to the market and switch when it makes sense. You make a bet years in advance on resource contracts and factory capacity, and if the needles don't match you need to find som…

> "But you won't see phosphate batteries in anything but budget/commuter EVs."

I'm not sure about that. Elon Musk said on the most recent Tesla earnings call that he expects the industry to shift heavily towards LFP over time.

Obviously the cost savings and cobalt avoidance are a significant reason, but LFP has some other advantages. Tesla's LFP Model 3 SR+ actually has slightly more range and faster charging than the NCMA version, at the cost of about 100 kg extra weight. Plus you can charge LFP to 100% every time without having to worry about accelerated battery degradation.

Re: Firefighters bring large battery fire near Geelong under control

#63

According to recent reports[1], Tesla is transitioning to using Iron Phosphate (LFP) Li-ion cells in it's Megapack stationary storage products. Unlike nickel-based cells, LFP is highly resistant to fire and thermal runaway. Presumably, this particular installation was still using nickel-based cells. [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2021/05/11/tesla-transitions-to-lf...

Is this transition happening for their home battery products too?

Speculation, but I think this is likely to happen at some point. Perhaps when there is a new model of Powerwall introduced.

LFP makes sense in many ways for stationary storage, but it does have lower energy density, so you couldn't keep the same kWh in the same form factor without some changes.

Re: Firefighters bring large battery fire near Geelong under control

#64

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Either the customer or the investor. All of the current Tesla capital comes from the investors. They've just started breaking even now, and it can take a while to cover all the past costs. As of the latest 10-Q the accumulated deficit (sum over all past earnings) is -$3.6B. The total capital raised from investors is well over $15B.

Tesla had an effective 0 free cash flow in 2018, 1.1B USD in 2019, and 2.8B USD FCF in 2020. In terms of net income they have been positive since Q2 2020; 15 months. They have been more than "start(ing to) break even now". It would be more accurate to say they have been more than breaking even since some time between 2018 and Q1 2020 depending on your measure; capex, opex, financials (interest, depreciation, etc), un…

Depreciation and thus CAPEX over time is definitely a real charge, and so is stock based compensation from the point of view of the shareholder (think of the largest in history stock grants to a single person, that is the legendary Elon's stock grants; to quote a famous show - "this guy fucks"). It's not easy to beat the accuracy of GAAP income unless you know the company / sector in great detail and can introduce custom modifications. Going "yolo adjusted-EBIDTA stonks" and simply removing charges to increase "income" is rather optimistic/stupid.

But yeah, it is starting to look okay if not good. I was (well technically still am, but the position is tiny now) one of the shorts in TSLA, but I am done with that, didn't quite work :)

Re: Firefighters bring large battery fire near Geelong under control

#65
post #16

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>Who's paying for the transition? The customer or Tesla? Since nearly all Tesla revenue comes from Tesla customers I would imagine the customers will be ultimately footing the bill. >Was this comment controversial in any way? Honestly it comes off as cynical and a little dumb -- which is why it might be grey. If a business agrees to a cost -- it will be the customers paying for that cost. Your peevish "Who is paying…

It's a relevant question because Tesla knowingly sold demonstratively unsafe technology to customer and the tax payer will ultimately have to pay for all the damage it's going to cost long term(and in fact already does). People like you who really love Tesla for some reason seem to be willingly ignorant of that fact. As others have mentioned before even DIY batteries were recommending other battery technologies for p…

I’m not a Tesla fanatic—I’m rather disgusted by many of Tesla’s practices—but I agree with the parent. If you buy experimental technology from a company with a reputation for cutting corners, and said technology happens to be rather flammable, don’t be surprised when it bursts into flames. Who’s going to foot the bill? Obviously the taxpayer.

Re: Firefighters bring large battery fire near Geelong under control

#66
post #9

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Who's paying for the transition? The customer or Tesla? Funny this got downvoted. Was this comment controversial in any way?

You get downvoted because the question is redundant. It's like asking who is paying for the next gen iPhone or whatever. You buy the product as is and when a new better generation of the same product comes out you don't get a free upgrade because you bought the old version.

All your comments turn up dead now.
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