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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#61

Post by solveit »

lostinquebec wrote: post #19
gameswithgo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what a dumb quote by bezos

The election wins of Trump, Boris Johnson, Brexit and The Liberals in Australia show that data collection really matters. Similarly the financial crisis of 2009 shows that missing data can really matter. That's the key point of the quote: > There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it

I hate to call something gaslighting, but this is gaslighting of the highest order. I am not familiar with Australian politics, but the other three cases were textbook cases of the data saying one thing (Trump might win, BoJo will probably win, and Brexit might happen) and people refusing to believe it.

How these get turned to make precisely the opposite point (Not just by you. It happens all the time) never ceases to amaze me. Presumably the thought process is "I and the people I respect build beliefs based on data. I and the people I respect were wrong. Therefore the data was wrong". Unbelievable.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#62

Post by tomc1985 »

xadhominemx wrote: post #12
Retric wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California has much lower housing costs outside of major cities. It’s exodus is seen as unusual simply because it’s a a populous state, but rate wise it’s hardly unusual. IMO, people leaving California in large numbers is also a function of how many people move into the state because people who moved long distances once are more likely to move again. As 2020 was a serious outlier I am sticking with U.S. states by net…

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#63

Post by wolverine876 »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

A (baseless) line about anecdotes - and said by someone with no awareness of the issue at hand or the research - is evidence that this entire research project is wrong?

Why do we even use research? Why don't we just run on anecdotes? There have long been anecdotes about witches and black cats, about prayers to the rain god, etc. I'm pretty sure Amazon relies on research and data.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#64

Post by SavantIdiot »

cjsplat wrote: post #31

US census data says about 650k people left California between 2018 and 2019, out of a population of 39M, or 1.6% In dramatic contrast, in Texas, 450k left out of 28M, or 1.6% Nationwide, 7 million people changed states out of 324 M, or 2.1% https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geograph...

Thanks for posting real data.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#65

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

The issue is the labeling. It adds subjectivity to what can be just as easily communicated objectively.

"Research Shows Percentage of Californians Planning To Leave State Unchanged since 2019"

Once SF Gate adds the subjective labels: Exodus and Myth, we get focused on the accuracy of the labels. The meanings of labels evolve, and that evolution is 'phased' through society. Hence labels will always mean different things to different people, different meanings lead to different reactions and then misunderstandings and in worst cases, conflict.

I intentionally try to filter out labels for that reason.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#66

Post by wolverine876 »

From another source, about people leaving San Francisco:

* "Among the 50 most populous U.S. cities, 15 shrunk during the pandemic" Top three: 1) Baltimore (-1.42%), 2) San Francisco (-1.39%), 3) San Jose (-1.3%)

* Of people leaving SF: 72% moved elsewhere in the Bay area, ~20% moved elsewhere in California. The next most popular destination was Washington state, the majority going to Seattle.

Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/Only-one-U-S-city-...

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#68

Post by wolverine876 »

tomc1985 wrote: post #60
xadhominemx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Years ago (2007ish) I worked for a startup owned by a guy that relocated to Reno and had a huge property in some mountaintop country club on the edge of the city line. As we stood in the snow, looking out over Reno (where they had none) he was telling me all about how the money he saved on taxes in California 100% financed the property we were standing on. It was a very nice house... guessing about 4000 or 5000 sqft.…

It's not a myth because you heard two people talk about it? It's not entirely a myth, I think we can all agree - of the tens of millions of people in CA, some think that way.

But CA has long invested large amounts in its people (one reason there is U Cal Berkley, which is one reason for the Bay Area's success), which of course requires taxes, and it long has protected its citizens, including the wealthy ones - something the citizens like and vote for.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#69

Post by [deleted] »

deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

[deleted]

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#70

Post by wolverine876 »

Cookingboy wrote: post #22
teachrdan wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?

Anecdotal data is still data, just not conclusive data. But there is a Chinese saying "无风不起浪", which roughly translates to “If there are waves on the water, there must be wind somewhere". We are hearing a ton of these anecdotal stories very recently about Californians moving to other states, especially wealthy, higher income individuals. My gut feeling is that there is some material shift behind it and our systematic…

> We are hearing a ton of these anecdotal stories very recently about Californians moving to other states, especially wealthy, higher income individuals.

We know matches a political narrative (anti-liberal, anti-tax) and that the right, such as on Fox News, has long pushed it about CA. That would explain why you hear it so much.

EDIT: I'm trying to avoid discussing the politics of it on HN, but ignoring the narrative is like (as I said elsewhere) ignoring the Sun as we talk about Earth's orbit. It's impossible to discuss it seriously or honestly.

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