Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary • Hacker News Board

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#61

Post by mrd3v0 » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:29 AM UTC

asciimike wrote: post #28

RegnisGnaw wrote: post #11

I’m predicting an airforce action on the dam. PRC or Russia will veto anything from the UN Security Council. Mark my words. EDIT: as in veto any UNSC response to the strike

I'm not a betting man, but, "Egyptian political leaders on Monday met Morsi to discuss the report. Apparently unaware their discussion was being televised live, some of them proposed hostile acts including aiding rebels inside Ethiopia and destroying the dam itself." From: https://web.archive.org/web/20130606172030/http://www.washin...

You are quoting a scandal that happened about 7 years ago with a fundamentally different government. So much happened since then in the Egyptian political scene. A coup d'etat deposed that incompetent Islamist government and instilled a new dictator who has a very different agenda.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#62

Post by baybal2 » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:30 AM UTC

ilstormcloud wrote: post #42

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

> My two cents, there is 0 chance these countries will ever stand against Ethiopia regarding the Nile water usage. =I am perplexed that they are making an enemy out of Ethiopia when 80% of the Nile comes from here. That's no way to secure your future.

The Egyptian government is not exactly a candy.

It's led by a caricature character military putschist, whose mental faculties have long left him.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#63

Post by baybal2 » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:33 AM UTC

atlasunshrugged wrote: post #45

ilstormcloud wrote: post #42

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

I didn't realize that the number of people without power in Ethiopia was quite so high, my impression was that it was more developed. I also have 0% belief that Kenya, Uganda, and Djibouti would take military action against Ethiopia. They all have their own internal problems and I doubt they would want to get mixed up in a war in which they have little to benefit from (what would the Egyptians give them?). Random que…

Rwanda, Uganda...

The past vividly shows some countries launch wars exactly because of internal problems, not vice versa.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#64

Post by sebmellen » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:34 AM UTC

chrisseaton wrote: post #57

smnrchrds wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also to put things in context, if they rename Egypt to Nile: The Country , it would be more accurate. Egypt is a country of 100 million people, all of them living next to the Nile or in its delta. It's unbelievable how much Egypt is dependant on Nile for its existence. Any disruption in Nile will have severe negative effects on the lives of 100 million people and be an existential threat to Egypt. Just take a look at…

> all of them living next to the Nile or in its delta Your own heat map shows that this isn’t the case - they also live on the coast.

That’s ridiculous. The darkest areas of the map are quite literally all on the Nile or in the delta.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#65

Post by inglor_cz » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:48 AM UTC

vidarh wrote: post #58

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #37

Egypt's problem is population growth: https://www.populationpyramid.net/egypt/2026/ And in particular their fertility rate, which remains stubbornly high at 3.33 children per woman. A popular meme has been that as countries and people get richer, they have fewer children. But, that is not occurring in Egypt, which is about twice as rich as India or Bangladesh, but has about 50% more children. Really, its just Egyptia…

Egypt's fertility rate has as far as I can tell dropped every year but a handful since the late 1950's: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... To suggest this implies some cultural resistance to reducing fertility seems to be fundamentally flawed. It also doesn't really work like that - even countries with a culture that involves favouring large families see fertility rates drop as they devel…

"every year but a handful"

True, but the effect of TFR on total population depends on the base too.

A growth from 3.0 to 3.5 between 2005 and 2015 means quite a lot of extra children born, because Egypt of 2005 had already 75 million people.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#66

Post by inglor_cz » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:52 AM UTC

smnrchrds wrote: post #44

jiggawatts wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This shouldn't be voted down into oblivion. Some truths are uncomfortable to hear, but that doesn't make them less true. When I was in Egypt, everywhere I looked I saw signs of overpopulation and an idle, largely uneducated workforce standing around half the day in bread lines kilometres long.

It's getting downvoted because it's blatantly racist. How else do you interpret this but racism: > Earth is not gaining much by having millions of Egyptians - just increased resource degradation EDIT: It also says the reason for Egypt's higher fertility rate is Islam, while comparing it to Bangladesh, another Muslim country. So it's not like the comment is racist but insightful if you ignore racism. It's racist and n…

There are a lot of parameters that correlate with higher fertility rate, and higher religiousness is one of them. Many religions explicitly stress the need to go and multiply and priests/imams/rabbis repeat this message to the believers.

In countries as culturally different as the U.S., the Netherlands, Israel and India, the most religious subgroups of population tend to have the most children.

And, conversely, once the total level of religiousness starts to drop (as in formerly strongly Catholic countries of the Mediterranean, or in cities like Istanbul and Tehran), the birthrates plummet as well.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#67

Post by Popegaf » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:54 AM UTC

ilstormcloud wrote: post #42

To provide the HN audience with a single data-point from Ethiopia. * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power. * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress. * The Nile basin contains some 11 countries * More than 80% of the Nile waters come out of Ethiopia * Some 70% of the rivers in Ethiopia are parts of the Nile basin * Out of these countries, only Egypt and Sudan use th…

> * More than half of Ethiopia's 110 million people have no electric power.

> * Almost all of Ethiopia is under some level of food stress.

Where is a country like Ethiopia getting all the money for such a mega-project?

> * This happened due to Colonial era agreements in which great Britain

Typical, colonial forces left a mess everywhere they went. India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, pretty much all of Africa, my history on South America and Asia are rusty but I bet they right messed up things there too.

What's crazy is how things still are in such disarray so long after they retreated.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#68

Post by vidarh » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:54 AM UTC

inglor_cz wrote: post #65

vidarh wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Egypt's fertility rate has as far as I can tell dropped every year but a handful since the late 1950's: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... To suggest this implies some cultural resistance to reducing fertility seems to be fundamentally flawed. It also doesn't really work like that - even countries with a culture that involves favouring large families see fertility rates drop as they devel…

"every year but a handful" True, but the effect of TFR on total population depends on the base too. A growth from 3.0 to 3.5 between 2005 and 2015 means quite a lot of extra children born, because Egypt of 2005 had already 75 million people.

That's entirely besides the point, which is that the comment I replied to rested fundamentally on ignoring the sustained drop, which has resumed, to push a narrative of Egypt being an exception to fertility rates dropping as a country develops.

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#69

Post by Popegaf » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:59 AM UTC

Let's say Ethopia goes through with this. Would it be cheaper to start a war against them or spend money on tech to reduce dependence on the Nile?

I imagine that a campaign to improve education in Egypt and train the populace for jobs to reduce Nile dependence would be a major boost to the Egyptian economy. It might drive the country to innovate and fuel a boom in their tech and engineering sector.

Are there any feasible projects to that end?

Re: Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam on Nile tributary

#70

Post by redis_mlc » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 8:09 AM UTC

jiggawatts wrote: post #48

smnrchrds wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's getting downvoted because it's blatantly racist. How else do you interpret this but racism: > Earth is not gaining much by having millions of Egyptians - just increased resource degradation EDIT: It also says the reason for Egypt's higher fertility rate is Islam, while comparing it to Bangladesh, another Muslim country. So it's not like the comment is racist but insightful if you ignore racism. It's racist and n…

Historically, Catholicism was also responsible for a high birth rate because of their religious dogma. Is that racist or a factual observation? Not everything is racist. Racism is when you judge someone by their ethnicity alone. Racism is when you deny someone opportunities based only on their skin colour. Etc... I'm not going to automatically assume that every Irish woman I meet is a baby-making machine just because…

> Is that racist or a factual observation?

Unfortunately most people today can't tell the difference.

Partly it's because they don't read anything about current affairs, partly they're not interested in discerning the difference.

(I remember when discourse started to become post-factual and "truthy," but today it's the norm. Truthy means it sounds like it could be true, but there's no evidence behind it. If you listen to White House spokesperson Jen Psaki, basically every other sentence is not factual. Luckily she's resigning in about a year.)