"Taiwan notebook Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs) account for more than 90% of global notebook production"
https://www.digitimes.com/topic/taiwan_notebook_odms/a00176....
Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
61–69 of 69 posts
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#62[flagged]
Launching a global pandemic and lying about it I generally agree with your other points, but don't like the word "launching". That word implies a deliberate act. It's much more likely this was just poor lab procedures that let the virus infect researchers at the virology lab. Those researchers then infected the world.
Lab or not, deliberate or not it's the second time recently (SARS). So they're either deliberate or so negligent it might as well be deliberate.
That's my take at least but I am a bit of a hawk on China.
Thanks for replying at least. Most people just don't want to hear it.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
China was afraid of Trump going to war not so much with Biden so this makes perfect sense. We will see Iran, Russia and North Korea threaten more while European countries offering more support.
I thought the standard argument was that demopublicans (ya know that publican thing ain’t nothing to brag about lol) aka bipartisans all agreed that the foreign war gig was good . Trumpian inconsistency ensures that a well timed Sabre rattle is perceived as indigestion. I doubt that emperor Xi was concerned. They know a thing or two about the futility of walls unlike our homegrown lot who still believe in King Santa…
bipartisan support is not for wars, it's for military conflicts, meaning wars that has no impact on Americans directly(outside of the conflict zone) a war with a major army will affect Americans, so it has no support of a cynical political class.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
China's fertility rate (assuming it is accurate) is excellent by the standards of other high-IQ populations, at 1.69. By contrast, Taiwan is dreadful, at 1.07. Eventually, China will be able to just sail in. The real threat to our chip supplies is that the world will run out of intelligent Taiwanese people to operate TSMC.
The thing about demographics is that it doesn't matter what your fertility rate is now, it matters what it was 20 years ago. The fact is that China's largest cohort turns 31 this year, while it's current military age cohorts are half its size, and shrinking. The cohort turning 18 this year is the smallest since the Great Leap Forward. The next cohort with 10 million males is currently 5 years old, and it is an anomal…
everything you described has been historic reasons to start a war, utilize extra male population(that has a great potential for revolt), give your people patriotic reasons to support your power, affirm control over population, force older generations to work more regardless of their health. And if a war campaign is successful geopolitically it can lead to expansion that will provide your nation with external sources of manpower and economic growth.
For example if China will successfully take over Taiwan, it can use that experience as a leverage in it's colonization of African and Asian countries that it's already actively attempts. China was a provider of important bricks in the world economy growth in the past decades, if CCP manages to put themselves on top of someone elses economic growth the same way, they can manage to afford the very expensive management of demographic collapse and economy transformation.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#65Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
The thing about demographics is that it doesn't matter what your fertility rate is now, it matters what it was 20 years ago. The fact is that China's largest cohort turns 31 this year, while it's current military age cohorts are half its size, and shrinking. The cohort turning 18 this year is the smallest since the Great Leap Forward. The next cohort with 10 million males is currently 5 years old, and it is an anomal…
everything you described has been historic reasons to start a war, utilize extra male population(that has a great potential for revolt), give your people patriotic reasons to support your power, affirm control over population, force older generations to work more regardless of their health. And if a war campaign is successful geopolitically it can lead to expansion that will provide your nation with external sources…
It might be a good reason to start a war with a neighbor they can reach by land, but they need a win, not a protracted and costly fight, which is exactly what they'll get attempting a naval invasion.
Taiwan is not a source of manpower and economic growth, the only thing of value is a high tech industry that will be immediately destroyed by any sort of military action. Whatever minor gains could be hasd would be completely overshadowed by the immense cost of fighting the pro-taiwan coalition. China's economy is reliant on ocean going foreign trade, both for the import of raw materials and the export of its manufactured goods, but that trade is totally at the mercy of powers that aren't big fans of China to begin with and would openly oppose it in the case of war. You can't maintain the world's second largest economy running freighters through a blockade in the hopes of selling a fraction of your wares in third world ports.
Saber rattling is often an effective strategy for galvanizing public support, but actually fighting a war typically proves disastrous. Even in the absolute best case scenario where the US and other western countries don't join the conflict, one need only too look at the Soviet Union in Afghanistan or the US in Vietnam to see how a superpower can be humiliated by a grossly inferior opponent and the severe internal strife caused by such boondoggles. Again, amphibious assaults are difficult under the best of circumstances, and Taiwan is an especially difficult target; China's huge advantage in population is useless as you're limited by the number of troops you can land on a beach, and China has zero experience in conducting such operations. The odds of such a war becoming a long and protracted conflict that destroys the Chinese economy and causing mass unrest is incredibly high. The idea that Taiwan is an easy practice target on the road to some second scramble for Africa is simply laughable.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Breaking the blockade would be extremely difficult to do for a variety of reasons. Primarily, unless the US was willing to attack mainland China, there's no way they could overcome the PLA/PLAN. And if the US attacks mainland China, the risk of the conflict going nuclear rises exponentially. If I were the PLAN, I would focus on three areas; MRBMs to keep the CVNs far far away, airpower over the region to keep Japan o…
For a country dependent on US controlled shipping lanes to obtain food and oil, as well as dependent on the rest of the world's financial system to keep their population employed, it's a bit ludicrous to think of them blockading anyone. China is the one who is vulnerable to a blockade - it's not even food independent.
If you project out USN shipbuilding plans to the end of this decade, and then do the same to for the PLAN, the numbers get concerning. Ships take a long long time to get built, and the PLAN has a very high construction tempo.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#68While semiconductors are a very important part of industry, it's naive to think that a loss of Taiwanese output would be as disastrous as this article suggests. Consider the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, they are much larger than any such loss would have, yet this pandemic didn't have any acute large-scale effect on geopolitics (though it will like have a longer-term, and some what unpredictable effect). A muc…
The Coronavirus has a huge effect, it's just been papered over by massive Central Bank Financing. Make no mistake, we are in 'Willy Wonka' land with respect to currency. The reason it hasn't lead to geopolitical fallout is because 'everyone is in the same boat'. If 'just Canada' did this ... even with a pandemic, Canada would be getting trashed on the markets, major downgrades, the fallout would peter into a lot of t…
I quite agree that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a "new world order" event, but I'm sceptical that a loss of Taiwanese Fabs would be the same.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Coronavirus has a huge effect, it's just been papered over by massive Central Bank Financing. Make no mistake, we are in 'Willy Wonka' land with respect to currency. The reason it hasn't lead to geopolitical fallout is because 'everyone is in the same boat'. If 'just Canada' did this ... even with a pandemic, Canada would be getting trashed on the markets, major downgrades, the fallout would peter into a lot of t…
I quite agree that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a "new world order" event, but I'm sceptical that a loss of Taiwanese Fabs would be the same.
Yes, that's it. The article almost embarrassingly equates Taiwan with Fabs. It makes sense from a certain perspective but in the big picture it's not that big of a deal.
In 400 years, Taiwan's political status will be relevant, ASIC fabs will be a footnote.