61–70 of 125 posts
Who is asking for autonomous vehicles? Biased sample sure, but I've never heard anyone actually express a desire for it.
1) sleeping/reading/etc whilst driving long-distance 2) getting home from the city after drinks 3) pick up kids from school/practice (this would be a major time saver)
I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…
One of the biases in Hacker News is that comments like yours tend to get downvoted. Some of my more reserved comments get downvoted, and then flooded with replies about 360 vision and cars never getting sleepy. IMO: Most of the autonomous driving tech will evolve to be driver assistance and safety tech in the upcoming decade. I still believe we'll get autonomous driving someday, but not until we have a few more AI br…
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I don’t know, I used to ride an autonomous vehicle every day in London. DLR is autonomous, the catch is - it has its own lane and it’s on rails. Also, someone sits in the car during rush hours, just in case. Here’s how it looks to be in the front car of the train when there’s a supervisor: https://imgur.com/geFIidK Outside of the rush hour, that lid is closed and it feels like the Half-Life train at beginning of the…
We could've vastly expanded a lot of train systems with the amount of money that's been burned trying to make cars drive themselves. Unfortunately, most new transportation methods that are not trains are just attempts to build trains, while claiming they are not trains and will cost less than trains. But inevitably end up costing as much as trains. Trains.
I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…
Work at Waymo. Know lots of folks at Cruise. This is not reflective of the general outlook that most engineers have.
When ADAS systems come into play, the primary concern is who's going to shoulder the blame when things fail. This autonomous driving thing is no simple nor incremental improvement, this is an overhaul in our current structure of liability. So far, with a human driving, when things go awry, blame can be easily assigned, it's simple and case can be closed. When we introduce total absolution of the former party in charg…
Who is asking for autonomous vehicles? Biased sample sure, but I've never heard anyone actually express a desire for it.
I don't know if 10 is the right multiplier here, but the point is the difficulty is exponential.
Musk's engineers know this but for whatever reason he can't or won't understand it.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t know, I used to ride an autonomous vehicle every day in London. DLR is autonomous, the catch is - it has its own lane and it’s on rails. Also, someone sits in the car during rush hours, just in case. Here’s how it looks to be in the front car of the train when there’s a supervisor: https://imgur.com/geFIidK Outside of the rush hour, that lid is closed and it feels like the Half-Life train at beginning of the…
The Copenhagen metro has zero drivers, and not even room for one. https://migogkbh.dk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Metro-1200x72...
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To be fair to Elon, there were a lot of naysayers coming at him about Tesla and SpaceX but he has accomplished more than they ever thought he would. Most of the time, however he has exaggerated the timeline in order to keep the hype around him and his companies. I think he would do better to under-promise and over-deliver. Especially with a technology that could potentially cost lives if delivered too early.
The way I like to think about it, Elon Musk over over over over promises, and "just" over delivers. Most CEOs could never dream of producing the kinds of real results that Elon Musk has, but also most CEOs aren't as comically obnoxious as he is.
Deep learning is great for a few narrow cases but there is no path to general human-like intelligence required for a complex human-like activity like self-driving which has an infinitely long tail of edge cases you can't train for with these large and "dumb" ML models equivalent to curve fitting.
The mistake of Tesla is betting on covering more and more of these edge cases incrementally but what's needed is qualitative change rather than incremental improvement.
By qualitative change I mean actual model of human-like intelligence, including reasoning and "common sense", which is a prerequisite for self-driving. The solution to this problem requires more than the sum of its parts.
It's kind of like planning to build an airplane before figuring out Newton' basic laws of physics.
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One of the biases in Hacker News is that comments like yours tend to get downvoted. Some of my more reserved comments get downvoted, and then flooded with replies about 360 vision and cars never getting sleepy. IMO: Most of the autonomous driving tech will evolve to be driver assistance and safety tech in the upcoming decade. I still believe we'll get autonomous driving someday, but not until we have a few more AI br…
... he comments under the top comment. Skepticism of self-driving tech and "AI" in general is a very popular position here.