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Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

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Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#61

Post by bluGill »

Leherenn wrote: post #49
throwawayboise wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless they are colluding that's not how a free market works. If supply is truly plentiful, someone will be willing cut prices to gain sales. Others will then have to follow or watch their customers disappear.

Doesn't that assume that you can scale relatively quickly? Otherwise the effect can stay marginal.

You can though. Most of the labor is in skills that are easy to teach. You can take your half your seconds and promote to foremen, the other half as seconds under the old seconds. The foremen get the old third line as seconds, and you hire all new third-line people. There are a few people who aren't worthy of, or don't want that promotion, but overall the limit is how fast you can convince inexperienced people to work for you. This process can repeat yearly. You can also work more overtime - money talks to a lot of young people.

You do take a small productivity hit, so it isn't all smooth. Still there is plenty of opportunity to expand to meet demand.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#62

Post by WanderPanda »

ttul wrote: post #15

Gen-X: "We've got all this extra cash because we couldn't fly anywhere or go on cruises. Let's build our dream home in the mountains." Boomer: "Well, the 401-K is up a ton. Can't seem to spend the cash pouring out. Let's upgrade the house and buy a second home somewhere nice." Millenial: "We still have no savings because rent is insane and incomes have not kept up with inflation for decades as capital has played a la…

Bitcoin enters the game.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#63

Post by diydsp »

teoruiz wrote: post #59

Honest question: why are houses in the US primarily built with wood? Is it just because it’s cheaper? Even if it’s cheaper, is it worth to have a cheaper but obviously less durable building when compared to brick and mortar? It’s always been baffling for my southern European mind.

For my gf (in the usa), it's aesthetics. Though I look at brick and think "longevity." Perhaps historically it was cheaper/easier to use local wood and that image stuck with people?

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#64

Post by DavidPeiffer »

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #51
forrestthewoods wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I do know that in particular areas of the US, you just straight up cannot afford a home anymore on median income Correct. The national median income is insufficient to purchase a home in the most expensive cities in the country. That seems reasonable? The national median household income is about $65,000. That’s enough to afford a mortgage of somewhere in the $300,000 to $350,000 range. Is that enough for San F…

People have different definitions of "affordable." To me, a gross $65,000 household income, less after taxes, is not enough to be able to afford a home within that price range. It's probably closer to below $275,000. I do agree with you regarding location, though.

Completely agree. A lender in Iowa told us they approve up to 35% of gross income. Not certain if that was total servicing all debts, or their limit on the mortgage percentage payment. 65k could buy a ~300k house at a 3.25% interest rate.

I talked with an attorney from San Francisco on a plane once. When they bought their first house, 70% of their income was going towards the house. Raises helped that become a more reasonable percentage over the year.

Fast forward a few years, their family grew and they wanted to be further towards the edge of the city. They sold the house at a huge profit and put that money towards a bigger house further out. Different perspective in different markets.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#65

Post by busterarm »

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #51
forrestthewoods wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I do know that in particular areas of the US, you just straight up cannot afford a home anymore on median income Correct. The national median income is insufficient to purchase a home in the most expensive cities in the country. That seems reasonable? The national median household income is about $65,000. That’s enough to afford a mortgage of somewhere in the $300,000 to $350,000 range. Is that enough for San F…

People have different definitions of "affordable." To me, a gross $65,000 household income, less after taxes, is not enough to be able to afford a home within that price range. It's probably closer to below $275,000. I do agree with you regarding location, though.

You should never buy a home that costs more than 2x your yearly income.

So yeah, you should make at least $137,500 if you want to buy a $275k house.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#66

Post by solomonb »

mindslight wrote: post #48
tamaharbor wrote: post #3

Sheet of plywood last year = $8, this year = $54.

What are the specs on this "sheet of plywood" that was $8 any time within the past decade? Maybe some crappy OSB? Or one of those precut 2x2 panels?

7/16" OSB went from $8 to $55 in Los Angeles. ACX is around $75 now.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#67

Post by cigaser »

teoruiz wrote: post #59

Honest question: why are houses in the US primarily built with wood? Is it just because it’s cheaper? Even if it’s cheaper, is it worth to have a cheaper but obviously less durable building when compared to brick and mortar? It’s always been baffling for my southern European mind.

Relic from boom after WW2, many houses needed to be build fast.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#68

Post by smabie »

busterarm wrote: post #65
andrewmcwatters wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have different definitions of "affordable." To me, a gross $65,000 household income, less after taxes, is not enough to be able to afford a home within that price range. It's probably closer to below $275,000. I do agree with you regarding location, though.

You should never buy a home that costs more than 2x your yearly income. So yeah, you should make at least $137,500 if you want to buy a $275k house.

I mean that feels pretty simplistic. Like most things, it depends.

There are many things that I could know or believe that affect the calculus. For example I might get promoted next year and make more money or whatever.

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#69

Post by mindslight »

solomonb wrote: post #66
mindslight wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the specs on this "sheet of plywood" that was $8 any time within the past decade? Maybe some crappy OSB? Or one of those precut 2x2 panels?

7/16" OSB went from $8 to $55 in Los Angeles. ACX is around $75 now.

Rough.

I'm just sitting here wanting to build a new desk and some shelves, like I guess winter is a better time for projects anyway. Although I haven't actually priced plywood in my area yet, maybe the nice stuff has gone up comparatively less.

(and maybe LA will finally learn how to make multistory buildings out of something besides wood?)

Re: Soaring lumber prices add to the cost of a new home

#70

Post by solomonb »

mindslight wrote: post #69
solomonb wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

7/16" OSB went from $8 to $55 in Los Angeles. ACX is around $75 now.

Rough. I'm just sitting here wanting to build a new desk and some shelves, like I guess winter is a better time for projects anyway. Although I haven't actually priced plywood in my area yet, maybe the nice stuff has gone up comparatively less. (and maybe LA will finally learn how to make multistory buildings out of something besides wood?)

These prices are nationwide (and apparently international?). I think it is worst for construction grade material but I haven't called a real lumber yard to get prices on hardwood or cabinet grade plywood.

I was going to build a greenhouse out of poplar but noped out of that design and went with a hoop house made from bent fence posts.

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