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US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

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Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#61

Post by zepto »

tehjoker wrote: post #57
zepto wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your quote precisely supports what I explained - i.e. there is some likelyhood that China will try to seize control of Taiwan. What it doesn’t say, is anything about the US starting something. It’s totally absurd to consider Taiwan to be like a US state such as Texas. For that to be a valid comparison, Texas would need to have a treaty with China where China had agreed intervene militarily to protect Texas from US fe…

Well, in the US civil war, the South did succeed and did attempt to make treaties with other nations. They weren't very successful it seems, but that's not because they didn't try. In the American Revolution, a critical factor in victory was our alliances with France and Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_of_the_American_Civi... If Taiwan is properly regarded as a domestic issue, US intervention is impr…

> If Taiwan is properly regarded as a domestic issue.

It obviously isn’s because Taiwan had long standing treaties with the US for its defense.

Your analogy implies that Taiwan is part of China, and has already started a civil war by making alliances with a foreign power.

If Taiwan was part of China and is not already engaged in a civil war, they would not have been able to make these treaties.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#62

Post by amelius »

sct202 wrote: post #60
amelius wrote: post #4

What is the distribution of education-level of workers at a typical fab? Is it like 90% researchers, or more like 90% production workers?

I couldn't find anything by site, but TSMC reported these stats in their 2019 Annual Report as a whole out of 51k employees: 5k managers, 24k professionals, 4k assistants and 17k technicians. They reported highest level of education for their workforce of: 4.5% PHD, 44.9% Masters, 25.5% Bachelors.

Interesting, thanks!

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#63

Post by PeterisP »

PeterisP wrote: post #22
lainga wrote: post #8

Is Liu misunderstanding the Western plans or am I? I was under the impression that the US and Europe intended to get some onshore fab capacity as a second-source and backup in case Taiwan is blockaded or worse. If the plan was to replace TSMC entirely, well, I'd think he was justifiably concerned as (a) a threat to his business and (b) evidence that the US was decoupling from Taiwan. But I don't think that's the case…

Arguably US and Europe absolutely intend to get some onshore fab capacity as a backup, and the choice for TSMC is to either do that (perhaps demanding some subsidies as enticement) or refuse with the expectation that this will inevitably cause attempts to decouple from TSMC even if it's not economically viable, purely for strategic reasons. IMHO there are some similar trends with EU agricultural policy, where arguabl…

On the other hand, if I think more about it, it may be a key strategic interest of Taiwan to ensure that USA and EU don't get any reasonable onshore fab capacity in the near future - if Taiwan (and trade with it) becomes irreplaceable for USA and EU, possibly even more irreplaceable than the trade with mainland China, that would ensure that USA and EU would be motivated to defend Taiwan against any attempts of forceful reunification.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#64

Post by PeterisP »

tehjoker wrote: post #50
badloginagain wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If governments are looking at Chinese-Taiwan relations, and gaming the result of an occupied Taiwan, those supply chains become profitable pretty damn quickly.

If China took Taiwan, they would be selling to the rest of the world most likely. However, perhaps they are planning for a case where the US bombed the crown jewels to maintain supremacy. That would create profits for a domestic sector. The USG is perfectly happy to spend taxpayer money and foreigners' money to make their corporate constituency happy even if the financial equation is overall negative.

I don't think that there is any plausible scenario where China takes Taiwan chip fabs intact - if they are not disrupted during the conflict, I strongly presume they would all be intentionally blown up as soon as invading forces get a beachhead.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#65

Post by newsclues »

resonantjacket5 wrote: post #24
medium_burrito wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the US military budget? Let's say DOD decides it wants onshore chips. $10B is peanuts; $100B is easily doable if they say it's important enough- which it is.

the DoD budget was around 700 billion, no one is going to spend around 1/10th of their entire military budget on semi conductors at cost. They're going to assume some returns on these fab factories.

With the price of crypto DoD could self fund its wars by owning advanced fans and licensing GPUs.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#66

Post by leereeves »

tehjoker wrote: post #57
zepto wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your quote precisely supports what I explained - i.e. there is some likelyhood that China will try to seize control of Taiwan. What it doesn’t say, is anything about the US starting something. It’s totally absurd to consider Taiwan to be like a US state such as Texas. For that to be a valid comparison, Texas would need to have a treaty with China where China had agreed intervene militarily to protect Texas from US fe…

Well, in the US civil war, the South did succeed and did attempt to make treaties with other nations. They weren't very successful it seems, but that's not because they didn't try. In the American Revolution, a critical factor in victory was our alliances with France and Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_of_the_American_Civi... If Taiwan is properly regarded as a domestic issue, US intervention is impr…

The situation in Taiwan is more like the South successfully seceded, then in 1940 the US claimed the South still belonged to the US.

Taiwan has been, de facto, an independent country for over 70 years, whether other countries give it diplomatic recognition or not.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#67

Post by AnimalMuppet »

leereeves wrote: post #66
tehjoker wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in the US civil war, the South did succeed and did attempt to make treaties with other nations. They weren't very successful it seems, but that's not because they didn't try. In the American Revolution, a critical factor in victory was our alliances with France and Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_of_the_American_Civi... If Taiwan is properly regarded as a domestic issue, US intervention is impr…

The situation in Taiwan is more like the South successfully seceded, then in 1940 the US claimed the South still belonged to the US. Taiwan has been, de facto, an independent country for over 70 years, whether other countries give it diplomatic recognition or not.

Great analogy, but not quite. It's more like the South seceded, then over the years became much more powerful, then in 1940 claimed that the North belonged to the South.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#68

Post by mrkstu »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #67
leereeves wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The situation in Taiwan is more like the South successfully seceded, then in 1940 the US claimed the South still belonged to the US. Taiwan has been, de facto, an independent country for over 70 years, whether other countries give it diplomatic recognition or not.

Great analogy, but not quite. It's more like the South seceded, then over the years became much more powerful, then in 1940 claimed that the North belonged to the South .

Like it, but how about the South not just seceded, but counter-attacked and drove what was left of the Union government to Puerto Rico from whence both 'countries' claimed sovereignty over the whole.

Eventually the Puerto Rican's US gets very successful within the scope of an island nation and the Confederate USA starts planning on taking PR back, but PR US has since made alliances with a global military power.

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