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The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

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Re: The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

#61
Life on Earth already survived one transition from an anoxic environment to an oxygen-rich environment, I see no reason to expect that it could not make the transition back to an anoxic environment. Granted it may not look anything like the life we're accustomed to today, but I suspect life will exist on Earth in some way, shape, or form for a long time to come.

Re: The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

#62
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That question is definitely unknowable in advance, because our intelligence level leads to radical changes in the environment in which we exist. If we really, really , cared, we could set up a momentum exchange between Earth and Jupiter mediated by an asteroid, moving Earth further out and Jupiter (slightly) further in, chasing the outward drift of the Sol habitable zone: https://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0102126 Also,…

If you want to expand semi human traits to other planets (anywhere) you will need genetic engineering. Full stop. The idea that humans can be transplanted as-is does not hold given the results on the home planet.

OTOH, O’Neill cylinders are an alternative instead of planets, while the bad previous experiences with eugenics (and the tendency people have towards appeal-to-nature fallacy) may make people actively reject GM humans.

Re: The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

#63

I wonder if the great filter is not one, but multiple coincidences brought upon by "intelligent" life and the natural lifetime of a planet and/or solar system. If Mars had intelligent life and now it doesn't how does that bode for Earthlings? Can life really adapt given the lack of evidence anywhere? I wonder how will space travel to the next possible habitable planets work. Shoot in all directions and hope that life…

I think we can all but rule out a dead, ancient planet-spanning civilization on Mars now. We have medium resolution imagery of the entire planet and high resolution (meter or submeter) imagery of a lot of the surface, in a wide distribution. Mars hasn’t had enough volcanic activity to hide evidence of a planet-spanning civilization unless it occurred while large asteroid impacts were much more common. Venus, however,…

A planet spanning civilization on Mars is less likely. However, there are still ways it could be found, depending on how long ago it was. I list three ways below, and suspect there are more.

First, there is the possibility of a civilization dying and evidence being erased by tectonic plate recycling. Mars is approximately 4.6 billion years old. We know it has volcanic activity, and most consider it to have inactive tectonics now. Some scientists believe it could have had significant activity in the past, based on the 3 distinct regions of Mars. Earth's tectonic plates vary in their rates of recycling: the oldest non-oceanic tectonic plate is 3.6 billion years old, and shows no sign of recycling. Oceanic plates recycle on the average of every 180 million years though.

Second, there is the possibility of technology that didn't leave a visible trace. This is not supported by any evidence and is mere conjecture. If the society tore down non-organic structures and converted to using all biodegradable/organic materials then evidence of the society would be scarce, if existent at all, especially if bodies were cremated as many do today. Chemical analysis could detect this I suspect, or more importantly prove it wrong.

Last, if for some reason civilization evolved underground and stayed underground, then there wouldn't be any visible evidence above ground. This is also pure conjecture. Micro-robots that explore Mars' caves might find something, as might ground penetrating radar.

Re: The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

#64

Earth will not host complex plants in 600 million years. So that’s also a problem - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

Please post non-mobile links to wikipedia when you can [0]

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

Re: The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

#65

I wonder if the great filter is not one, but multiple coincidences brought upon by "intelligent" life and the natural lifetime of a planet and/or solar system. If Mars had intelligent life and now it doesn't how does that bode for Earthlings? Can life really adapt given the lack of evidence anywhere? I wonder how will space travel to the next possible habitable planets work. Shoot in all directions and hope that life…

It would not surprise me if civilizations evolved in the same way life did on Earth.

Life evolved in the sea. At some point life evolved to leave the sea and go to land, whether the sea was no longer hospitable enough, or in search of better food. Life continued to evolve on Land, specializing into different groups and colonizing different lands.

Perhaps civilizations evolve on their planet, then at some point they leave their planet and go into space (when their planet is no longer hospitable or they need more/better food). Finally, while in space they evolve more, founding different colonies that evolve differently due to culture and environmental differences.

Re: The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

#66

Earth will not host complex plants in 600 million years. So that’s also a problem - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

Please post non-mobile links to wikipedia when you can [0] [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

Serious question, why?

If you're on a phone, does the non-mobile link redirect to mobile?

The formatting on the mobile site looked just fine to me on a laptop. I'm sure there's a good reason I'm missing.

Re: The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

#69

Earth will not host complex plants in 600 million years. So that’s also a problem - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

> Earth will not host complex plants in 600 million years. So that’s also a problem - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

If I'm reading that right, that's only C3 plants. C4 plants would keep going until 800–900 million years. And who knows if something else doesn't evolve or is engineered for the different conditions.

Re: The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere

#70
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please post non-mobile links to wikipedia when you can [0] [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

Serious question, why? If you're on a phone, does the non-mobile link redirect to mobile? The formatting on the mobile site looked just fine to me on a laptop. I'm sure there's a good reason I'm missing.

> Serious question, why?

IIRC, mobile Wikipedia has a bigger font, is less information dense, and the navigation doesn't work as well.

> If you're on a phone, does the non-mobile link redirect to mobile?

Pretty sure they do, but the reverse isn't true.

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