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Election Battleground State Changes

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Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#61

Post by mthoms »

tathougies wrote: post #25
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why has this process dragged on for days >Where do they keep losing ballots? Because a process that had never been trialed in many places was used at the national scale. >Why isn't there a deadline? There is for the ballots being mailed (varies by states). There isn't any practical deadline on counting as long as a good faith effort is being made. Realistically we're probably looking at recounts in several of the ke…

> Because a process that had never been trialed in many places was used at the national scale. Sure, I get that, but didn't anyone foresee that this will call into question the legitimacy of the election. To recap, both candidates have claimed victory at this point, despite no major media outlet calling enough electoral votes. This could have been prevented by simply not changing things at the last minute. Instead, w…

A very important thing to remember - The only thing that can "call into question the legitimacy of the election" is evidence of wrongdoing. None has surfaced.

If someone tries to tell you otherwise, demand evidence. And no, Twitter and Facebook conspiracy theories are NOT evidence.

BTW "both candidates" have NOT declared victory. Only Trump has.

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#62

Post by dragonwriter »

tathougies wrote: post #25
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why has this process dragged on for days >Where do they keep losing ballots? Because a process that had never been trialed in many places was used at the national scale. >Why isn't there a deadline? There is for the ballots being mailed (varies by states). There isn't any practical deadline on counting as long as a good faith effort is being made. Realistically we're probably looking at recounts in several of the ke…

> Because a process that had never been trialed in many places was used at the national scale. Sure, I get that, but didn't anyone foresee that this will call into question the legitimacy of the election. To recap, both candidates have claimed victory at this point, despite no major media outlet calling enough electoral votes. This could have been prevented by simply not changing things at the last minute. Instead, w…

> To recap, both candidates have claimed victory at this point,

No, they haven't. Only one has. The other has expressed confidence that they will win. but candidates do that all the time before votes are counted, or even cast, its not the same thing as claiming victory.

> This could have been prevented by simply not changing things at the last minute.

There's almost no evidence that that is the case.

> Instead, we've set the stage for an extremely contested, ugly election.

What set the stage from that is the fact that its extremely close in lots of swing states. Short of abolishing the electoral college or disregarding the will of voters (depending on whether you prefer the more or less democratic approach, compared to the status quo), I'm not sure what you think can be done about that.

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#63

Post by panopticon »

sjburt wrote: post #42
ngcc_hk wrote: post #34

Can someone explain why 400k+ vote still being counted but Arizona result is called. No I am not want to dispute or argue. Just number. Thanks.

AP and Fox made a mistake and don’t want to walk it back. The other news agencies haven’t called it yet.

I bet Fox walks it back if they call NV so they don't have to announce a Biden win.

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#64

Post by qqqwerty »

par wrote: post #4

I think most of us have been mentally doing these calculations (inaccurately!) in our heads these past two days. But this is so awesome! Also, according to the trends here: Alaska - Trump (3 votes) Arizona - Trump (11 votes) Georgia - Biden (16 votes) North Carolina - Trump (15 votes) Nevada - Biden (6 votes) Pennsylvania - Biden (20 votes) Winner would be Biden.

The one thing that the table does not account for is the estimated partisan lean of the remaining votes (it sort of accounts for it by using the rolling mean of the previous reports, but that has issues).

Based on what I am seeing (reading twitter feeds of various analysts), AZ is leaning towards Biden because there are a few blocks of votes left that should lean much more towards Biden, which would prevent Trump from clawing back.

And Georgia is going to be so close that that it will go to re-count, so that one is probably best characterized as a coin flip.

Alaska is also a bit of a wildcard. From my understanding, none of the mail-in ballots have been counted and counting won't start till next week. So no one has any clue what the breakdown of those votes look like. But probably safe to assume Trump gets AK.

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#65

Post by dragonwriter »

panopticon wrote: post #63
sjburt wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AP and Fox made a mistake and don’t want to walk it back. The other news agencies haven’t called it yet.

I bet Fox walks it back if they call NV so they don't have to announce a Biden win.

I bet Fox just holds back on calling NV for Biden (no need if something radical happens and it can be called for Trump) until both NV and either AZ is certain (and can either also be called for Biden or flipped for Trump without going in to an indeterminant state) or one of GA or PA (for Biden) is clear and can be safely called as well.

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#66

Post by mthoms »

brational wrote: post #57
mthoms wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's over-simplifying by leaving out the "or more" part (which presumably exists because they only want to count full blocks). I do understand the gist of what they are saying but there's got to be a better way to word it. I also wonder if theres a good statistical reason for only counting full blocks. Why not just stop at 30k?

probably dont have access to individual vote data?

Right, but you could use a fraction of the final block (using the known vote percentages for that block). Then it would be "a moving average of the last 30k votes" and not "a moving average of the last 30k or more votes".

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#67

Post by brational »

mthoms wrote: post #66
brational wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

probably dont have access to individual vote data?

Right, but you could use a fraction of the final block (using the known vote percentages for that block). Then it would be "a moving average of the last 30k votes" and not "a moving average of the last 30k or more votes".

yea that’s a good point. make a pull request!

though for me just wanting a rough idea of what’s rolling in vs what’s needed it’s sufficient enough.

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#68

Post by throw0101a »

input_sh wrote: post #17
par wrote: post #4

I think most of us have been mentally doing these calculations (inaccurately!) in our heads these past two days. But this is so awesome! Also, according to the trends here: Alaska - Trump (3 votes) Arizona - Trump (11 votes) Georgia - Biden (16 votes) North Carolina - Trump (15 votes) Nevada - Biden (6 votes) Pennsylvania - Biden (20 votes) Winner would be Biden.

Quick calculation puts the final score at 295/243 for Biden. To put that into perspective, less convincing than Trump's win in 2016, slightly more convincing than George W. Bush's re-election.

Using the word "convincing" in association with the Electoral College is a bit of a stretch (some would say ridiculous).

In 2016 Clinton was +2.9M votes, but 77K were in the "wrong" places (MI 10K; PA 44K; WI 23K) and so the minority candidate took the prize. Gore was +500K, but Bush got Florida by 537 votes, and that was the ball game.

Biden is +3.5M and things are still up in the air?

What a cockamamie system.

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#69

Post by googthrowaway42 »

Rebelgecko wrote: post #53
googthrowaway42 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to noted election expert Ioseb Jughashvili, such scenarios are extremely likely under certain sets of circumstances. He's said it's nothing to worry about.

Is there a pundit who is still alive and uses that as a pseudonym?

It's a reference to the famous (perhaps misattributed) quote from Stalin: "Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."

Re: Election Battleground State Changes

#70

Post by tptacek »

tathougies wrote: post #25
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why has this process dragged on for days >Where do they keep losing ballots? Because a process that had never been trialed in many places was used at the national scale. >Why isn't there a deadline? There is for the ballots being mailed (varies by states). There isn't any practical deadline on counting as long as a good faith effort is being made. Realistically we're probably looking at recounts in several of the ke…

> Because a process that had never been trialed in many places was used at the national scale. Sure, I get that, but didn't anyone foresee that this will call into question the legitimacy of the election. To recap, both candidates have claimed victory at this point, despite no major media outlet calling enough electoral votes. This could have been prevented by simply not changing things at the last minute. Instead, w…

The process was changed, in the states where it changed, to prevent voters --- who tend to be significantly older than the general population --- from dying alone in isolated hospital rooms.
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