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David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

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Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#61
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "This is all pretty pretty clear, I don't know what else you could want." I do wish he would have talked more about what "racially charged internet searches" meant. As Paula Wright pointed out, I'd like to know what those "racially charged internet searches" which you have described as "racist" were. Immigration is surely not a race issue in the US, an ethnically diverse culture. Wouldn't illegal immigration be jus…

Hi - “racially charged” meant commonly used racial slurs against African Americans, not anything about immigration.

Hey, thanks for weighing in, David Shor. That puts a new spin on it.

Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#62
post #39

From the article: But a lot of people on the Clinton campaign tricked themselves into the idea that they didn’t have to placate the social views of racist white people. This seems like a pretty important insight and I really wish the interview could have unpacked this a lot better. It seems to be an operating assumption of the Democratic campaign, and I imagine if one is locked into this view (by implacable statistic…

His argument doesn’t even make sense within his own theory. Obama-Trump votes correlated strongly with Google searches indicating “racial resentment.” Okay, but why did those people vote for Obama in the first place? Sure, someone could be a racist and vote for Obama, but what changed? Schor says the salience of different issues changes in different elections. That makes sense. But surely race was a highly salient issue during the election of the first Black President. Yet Iowa voted for Obama by almost a 10-point margin in 2008 and for Trump by almost the same 10-point margin in 2016. Wisconsin voted for Obama by a 14 point margin and Michigan by a 17 point margin.

Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#63
post #32
post #2

> And I think the real synthesis of these views is that Obama-to-Trump voters are motivated by racism. Hmm. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/opinion/biden-latino-vote... > We began by asking eligible voters how “convincing” they found a dog-whistle message lifted from Republican talking points... Almost three out of five white respondents judged the message convincing. More surprising, exactly the same percentage o…

here's some pointers to results summarising 1. higher racial resentment correlated with higher votes for trump 2. most positive views of rising diversity correlated with switching from voting for romney to voting for not-trump ; least positive views of rising diversity correlated with switching from voting for obama to voting for trump 3. correlation of support for trump and more negative views of rising diversity th…

What does “rising diversity” mean in this context? Folks in Texas are angry about folks from California moving in and changing the culture. Is this racist? Equating anxiety about cultural change with racism is putting on ideological blinders.

Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#64
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "This is all pretty pretty clear, I don't know what else you could want." I do wish he would have talked more about what "racially charged internet searches" meant. As Paula Wright pointed out, I'd like to know what those "racially charged internet searches" which you have described as "racist" were. Immigration is surely not a race issue in the US, an ethnically diverse culture. Wouldn't illegal immigration be jus…

Hi - “racially charged” meant commonly used racial slurs against African Americans, not anything about immigration.

Hi there, and welcome to HN. Have you done any analysis (or know of studies) that bear on the wonky technological (or tech adjacent) issues that tend to consume this forum? Examples would be copyright and patent issues, broadband availability, antitrust, net neutrality, technological unemployment [0], free trade / tariffs / trade war, H1B visas, gig work (eg. Uber), R&D spending, space exploration, AI/algorithmic biases/ethics, open source, capital gains taxes, etc.

Conversely, how do you view the structure and detail of party and candidate platforms (eg. Warren's "I've got a plan for that" vs., well, anybody else)? Is more detail better or worse in terms of election results?

[0] I've always had a soft spot for this episode of The West Wing: http://westwingwiki.com/2014/04/season-5-episode-19-talking-...

Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#65
post #10

Wow. This guy is a really strange combination of brilliant and clueless.

Care to outline what you think is clueless?

Lots of little things that suggest Shor is so deep into politics he can't remember what a regular person is like. For example:

  The single biggest way that highly educated people who follow politics closely are different 
  from everyone else is that we have much more ideological coherence in our views.

  If you decided to create a survey scorecard, where on every single issue — choice, guns, unions,
  health care, etc. — you gave people one point for choosing the more liberal of two policy options...
He completely misses the fact that the liberal-conservative spectrum we see in American politics is pretty arbitrary and has more to do with tribalism then ideological coherence. For example, it would be "ideologically coherent" to be both pro-life and pro-gun-control. Or concerned about climate change and pro-nuclear-power. Or anti-racism and anti-immigration. So his conclusion is wrong. Highly educated people who follow politics are not more ideologically coherent, they're more ideologically conformist.

Another example:

  At some point, you have to be like, oh, actually, these people were motivated by racism. It’s just
  an important fact of the world ... 
Who's he talking about? Obama-Trump voters. He's looking at this sophisticated polling where they ask questions designed to probe for "racial resentment" and seeing no other way to interpret them. Ok... so why did they vote for Obama? Were they motivated by racism then? Did their motivation change between elections? These aren't rhetorical questions; I have no idea why Obama-Trump voters made those choices. But Shor is so deep in the numbers he can't see that his conclusion is nonsense.

Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#66
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Care to outline what you think is clueless?

Lots of little things that suggest Shor is so deep into politics he can't remember what a regular person is like. For example: The single biggest way that highly educated people who follow politics closely are different from everyone else is that we have much more ideological coherence in our views. If you decided to create a survey scorecard, where on every single issue — choice, guns, unions, health care, etc. — yo…

Thanks for elaborating. Your points are both good - the first one in particular jumped out to me as well as I was reading the article. I do think clueless is overstating it a bit, but admittedly you prefixed it with "brilliant and" ;)

Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump is obviously racist and divisive.

Curious that you're downvoted without comment. I was hoping some of your detractors would've explained why they think you're wrong. As an outsider to the US bunfight, your statement seems, based on what we see, pretty self-evident.

"As an outsider to the US bunfight, your statement seems, based on what we see, pretty self-evident."

Trump supporters are in a very deep denial about just how terrible and harmful he is.

Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious that you're downvoted without comment. I was hoping some of your detractors would've explained why they think you're wrong. As an outsider to the US bunfight, your statement seems, based on what we see, pretty self-evident.

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/456523-donald-trumps... https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/456523-donald-trumps... I don't believe he is a racist. He has strong opinions and no fear of hiding them. That is actually a huge draw for people voting for him. Accusations of racism are mostly political play. I don't really see how it is self-evident though. What do you think makes him racist? The Obama stuff co…

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Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whitewashing of this guy is the big issue. He can do no wrong, that supporters don't contort the evidence (and their own good sense) to struggle to reinterpret him as 'ok'. You want to understand, read outside your bubble. Not extremist view, just speeches and responses to direct questions and whatnot. Some reports may seem extremist because of the shocking response they have to our potus. It's a normal reaction…

I think Trumps has many flaws and it is true that there is some white washing. I do think his strong opinions can be a source of much bigotry. But he is judgmental about everyone and I don't think it is connected to race. His voters specifically let him say controversial stuff. They like it if it hits sensibilities of his political enemies since it signals his voters that the others just think themselves to be exalte…

" I do think his strong opinions can be a source of much bigotry."

Which is funny because his "strong opinions" usually contain much bigotry.

Re: David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious that you're downvoted without comment. I was hoping some of your detractors would've explained why they think you're wrong. As an outsider to the US bunfight, your statement seems, based on what we see, pretty self-evident.

I am also an outsider and it isn't obvious to me how he is both. Divisive sure (most politicians of note are), racist though? I personally don't see it. It suits some people to conflate immigration policy and racism. It then allows them to then label anyone opposed to immigration as racist. It is further confounded by the fact that those people that are deeply racist are almost always opposed to immigration. They do…

Evidence of Trump's racism. He has been racist for a long time.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/trump-r...

"Divisive sure (most politicians of note are),"

Has any other President actively tried to harm states he didn't like? Trump has.

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