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Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

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Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#61

Post by ynfnehf »

oefrha wrote: post #54
notankies wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uhh, famously, Sweden? Where have you been?

As I said, politicians asking people not to wear masks != no people wearing masks. And here's a Reuters report from two months ago saying mask sales soared, picturing at least one person wearing mask: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden...

According to YouGov the latest numbers are 9% wearing masks when in public, it has become a bit higher lately (was 7% just a couple of weeks ago). But I think 9% is far too high. I very rarely encounter a mask while taking a walk in the city closest to where I live. Although that might be due to those wearing masks not being as active in public.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-repor...

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#62

Post by chrisco255 »

IgorPartola wrote: post #44
chrisco255 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was that true of SARS1? What gives you that suspicion?

Yes. People who have survived severe cases of SARS1 apparently had lasting lung damage that put that at significantly increased risk with COVID.

Source on those numbers and how common that was?

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#63

Post by chrisco255 »

oefrha wrote: post #46
chrisco255 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this is happening in countries and states with no mask wearing. So your null hypothesis is shot.

Point to me a single country or state "with no mask wearing". There are sane people (and believe it or not, a lot of them) everywhere, even where politicians are insane.

Florida, South Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, etc. It's not mandated my state law, and it's frequently disregarded in many jurisdictions that do. You would expect that states with stricter restrictions and higher compliance would have better results but the data does not show that.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#64

Post by LudwigNagasena »

astrophysician wrote: post #18
OJFord wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I prefer the original - it tells me that 18% of all hospitalised patients are alive today where they would not have been before. Yours tells me 2/3 of them that were dying are no longer, but it puts me on edge like I might be being baited into clicking - a 2/3 drop isn't necessarily impressive, like in normal times if 0.5% of ED patients are dying, dropping by a factor of three might just be the difference between a…

hmm..I see your point but I'm not sure I agree, saying 2/3 of people that otherwise would have died are no longer is tailored to the problem. E.g. if mortality rate from all covid infections went from 0.1% -> 0.001%, thats incredibly impressive and important since the mortality is now 1% of what it was, meaning 99% of deaths are being avoided but "the mortality rate went down by 0.099%" sounds small and insignificant…

That’s because people mess up percentages and percentage points all the time.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#65

Post by LudwigNagasena »

mmastrac wrote: post #15

> Horwitz believes that mask-wearing may be helping by reducing the initial dose of virus a person receives, thereby lessening the overall severity of illness for many patients. Now if only we could drill this lesson into everyone's head.

You mean the heads of the US health officials who advised not to wear masks at the start of the pandemic because they don’t help? Yeah, I wonder why people distrust them now...

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#66

Post by tzs »

chrisco255 wrote: post #36
mrkstu wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the remaining question is, has the virus changed (mutated) to be less deadly, or have masks lessened the viral load on initial infection enough to give the immune system a better chance of fighting it off, or have treatments become that much more effective? Or a combination of the above?

We see the same drop in death rate across the board, by state, by country, regardless of policy choices. Regardless of mask wearing. Sweden's daily death count has flatlined at near zero per day for over three months, Florida, Wyoming, Idaho, South Dakota, etc all seeing similar drop in hospitalizations and deaths.

You say "death rate" in the first sentence, but then talk of "death count" and "deaths" in the rest.

Did you mean "death rate" in the rest too? If you meant "death count" or "deaths", then it is not the cast for South Dakota. Their deaths have gone way up per capita over the last few weeks.

There are two big questions most people would like answers too:

1. What are my chances of getting COVID?

2. How screwed am I if I get COVID?

There are a couple of different numbers that can be used for the second.

First, the death rate among people who have COVID can be given. Second, the deaths per capita due to COVID can be given.

If you have the answer to the first, then either form of answer to the second can be computed from the other form of answer.

What's going on in South Dakota is that they are doing very badly on the first half (getting COVID). By "badly" I mean that they make the worst in Florida, back when Florida was the epitome of mishandling COVID, look great.

So even if the death rate among people who have COVID has gone down a little, the deaths per capita has gone way up. The death rate among people with COVID would have to go down way more to offset the way the number of people who get COVID is increasing in South Dakota.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#67

Post by netsharc »

ynfnehf wrote: post #61
oefrha wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I said, politicians asking people not to wear masks != no people wearing masks. And here's a Reuters report from two months ago saying mask sales soared, picturing at least one person wearing mask: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden...

According to YouGov the latest numbers are 9% wearing masks when in public, it has become a bit higher lately (was 7% just a couple of weeks ago). But I think 9% is far too high. I very rarely encounter a mask while taking a walk in the city closest to where I live. Although that might be due to those wearing masks not being as active in public. https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-repor...

I'm pro mask, but I don't get wearing a mask if someone is just walking outside with no one around them. It's not like the whole world turned to Pripyat next to Chernobyl...

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#68

Post by gadders »

AndrewSChapman wrote: post #47

I'm not so sure this is true. Here in the UK the deaths are climbing back up again as the second wave comes in. Yesterday we had 241 Covid-19 fatalities, a number not seen since the start of June. Additionally, the way the UK is counting deaths changed a few months ago. Originally we were counting everyone that had been diagnosed with Covid, now if the death doesn't occur within 28 days of infection the death isn't c…

Not according to the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine. COVID deaths are about in line with how many people would die of flu in a normal year.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-florence-nightingales...

The ONS actually shows COVID deaths as now lower than flu deaths:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#69

Post by rossdavidh »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #27
rossdavidh wrote: post #23

"So have death rates dropped because of improvements in treatments? Or is it because of the change in who's getting sick? " No, it's likely dropping because the virus is changing. There were several hundred variants of the virus by May (in the UK, most of which were found worldwide). It is a completely normal and expected event that a virus new to humans, will evolve to become less likely to either kill the host, or…

a virus new to humans, will evolve to become less likely to either kill the host Oh, come on, the pox had mortality > 30 %. Evolutionary pressure favours easy spreading.

Sure, evolution pressure favors easy spreading, but if sick people stay home or go to the hospital, and non-sick people go out, then that pressure is to make the host sick less often.

Early estimates for mortality in Wuhan were 3-5%. Later estimates kept dropping, and are now at 0.39%.

Most viruses do not make the host sick, and the longer it's been in humans, the more likely it is that this is so. If the mortality rate is dropping (the article's assertion), but the WHO says none of the existing treatments has been shown to work, then the simplest explanation is that the virus has evolved in that direction. Given that the virus is very new in humans, there's nothing surprising about that.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#70

Post by [deleted] »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #27
rossdavidh wrote: post #23

"So have death rates dropped because of improvements in treatments? Or is it because of the change in who's getting sick? " No, it's likely dropping because the virus is changing. There were several hundred variants of the virus by May (in the UK, most of which were found worldwide). It is a completely normal and expected event that a virus new to humans, will evolve to become less likely to either kill the host, or…

a virus new to humans, will evolve to become less likely to either kill the host Oh, come on, the pox had mortality > 30 %. Evolutionary pressure favours easy spreading.

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