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Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

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Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#61

Post by shii »

sil3ntmac wrote: post #28
shii wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, since Tumblr doesn't have any ads either. Come to think of it, besides selling premium themes, how else does Tumblr make money? Surely all the trust-fund hipsters on the site don't bring in wheelbarrows of money with their ironic 1-gear eco-bikes, do they?

You were downvoted for adding a snidey remark to a decent question. Next time just ask the question. Since I'm curious as well, how does Tumblr make money besides themes? Does anyone know their monetization strategy?

Yeah, sorry I forgot Hacker News was all srs bznss where no humor is tolerated whatsoever.

On the Tumblr monetization front, TheStartupist[1] covers a good portion of their story. Checking Crunchbase[2] shows that they've gone through pretty large funding rounds, with their last one (D) at $30M the largest. I've been trolling Tumblr for the last year and half, and the only things I've been able to scrounge are the $9 Directory listing under your category of choice and the premium themes.

They're still growing massively, as all the cool kids congregate there to post their Instagram-faded pics of teenage angst, but are hemorrhaging money like Twitter. And like Twitter, advertising is viewed as pure evil[3] and not a viable solution to generate revenue. Twitter realized the inevitable and started Promoted Tweets recently, and Tumblr will have to do something similar soon as well. Maybe they make enough from the themes, but that seems a little quixotic.

[1]: http://thestartupist.com/2011/01/the-hypothetical-monetizati...

[2]: http://www.crunchbase.com/company/tumblr

[3]: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2010/04/tumblr-ad...

Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#62

Post by jhc »

iantimothy wrote: post #6

I can't remember where I got this quote from, but early on I learned that there are basically three ways to beat the US in technology: 1. The Japanese Way - Innovate By Leapfrogging. 2. The Indian Way - Innovate By Piggybacking. 3. The Chinese Way - Innovate By Copying. Looking at how things have been over the years, China isn't going to stop a strategy that has worked across industries.

I like the list of strategies, but I have to question calling any one of them "The Chinese Way." I mean, here in the US, companies leapfrog, piggyback, and copy all the time -- often within the same product. So you might as well call it all "The American Way." With the size and diversity of the tech industries in Japan, China, and India, we can probably assume they're using The American Way too. Which I think is great (the occasional bit of outright plagiarism aside).

Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#63

Post by gaius »

njs12345 wrote: post #54
gaius wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heh, that may be a factor, but I doubt it's the main one. Lots of American HN users seem to be pretty Liberal in their political outlook, and that's fine. But consider Germany, with a welfare state that looks after you from cradle to grave. If you want to start a startup there then you'd better have your EUR 20,000 in capital minimum, and you'd better do all the paperwork and comply with all the regulations and have…

I don't see any causative link here between the welfare state and excessive bureaucracy starting a company - would you mind explaining your thinking?

There is no causative link, you're right. But if you look at any of the major welfare states in Europe - Germany, France, Sweden, for example - then you will find that they are also highly bureacratic. That it is a mere correlation doesn't make it any less true!

Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#64

Post by dailo10 »

erikstarck wrote: post #15

While this example is a little extreme in its similarity with the original, copying a startup idea and implementing it in another market than an English speaking is not just done in China. Here's an article about a bunch of european startups doing the same: http://www.businessinsider.com/what-do-ebay-facebook-and-gro...

From a VC fund perspective, this is a sound investment strategy -- take what works in the US and clone it in your market. It lowers risk significantly since the idea already has traction. At some point you'll have to innovate, but you can always copy until then.

Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#66

Post by kragen »

Some other important look-and-feel clones:

Windows (copying MacOS)

Lotus 1-2-3 (copying VisiCalc)

GNU/Linux (copying Unix)

Gosling Emacs (copying ITS and Multics Emacs), which eventually became GNU Emacs

Excel (copying Lotus 1-2-3, to the point that VisiCalc slash commands still work in Excel last time I tried them about five years ago)

OpenOffice (copying Microsoft Office)

C compilers everywhere (copying the original Unix C compiler)

Compaq's clone PC (copying the IBM PC, and giving rise to the entire IBM-compatible market)

Friendster (copying Sixdegrees)

Facebook (copying Friendster, somewhat less faithfully)

Every modern IDE (copying Turbo Pascal)

Every modern search engine (copying Google)

MS-DOS (copying CP/M and a little bit of Unix)

MercadoLibre (copying eBay)

Intel's current x64 CPU line (copying AMD)

Netscape (copying Mosaic)

Internet Explorer (copying Netscape)

Wordpress (copying Movable Type) (I'm not sure who to credit with the modern blog, with its comment threads, "after the jump", and permalinks. Pyra?)

Being able to copy the look and feel of competing products is crucially important to allowing innovation to continue. If Personal Software Inc. still had a monopoly on spreadsheets, it's a good bet that the spreadsheets we use today wouldn't have progressed much from where we were in 1984. The interface designs that seem innovative and unique today are either faddish crap or the baseline from which tomorrow's innovation begins.

Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#67

Post by mgrouchy »

holdenc wrote: post #10

Tumblr will have the last laugh here. There's practically no market for tasteful online advertising or paid software in China. So, while he might rack-up users it will be hard to monetize this.

I'm not so sure about this? Has tumblr gotten its way to profitability yet? I don't know.

I'm sure they will figure it out eventually, I'm just unsure whether they are going to have an easier time then this chinese clone(at least to the point where they will be pointing and laughing).

Lets not forget that tumblr has spent millions of dollars and years coming up with the mix of what makes tumblr work and it has been essentially copied wholesale, if this ends up working in a chinese market, thats a huge competitive advantage for the chinese clone, because they didn't have to spend any of that money or resources to begin with.

Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#68

Post by BrandonM »

> His first open letter in year 2000 to students titled About honesty and integrity.

This is the author's big conclusion? He just had to go snarky with it? The guy once wrote about honesty and integrity. That was TEN years ago; it's not some big scandal that he has now taken a couple products that were not available in the Chinese market and brought them to market as quickly as possible.

If you can get away with it, why not make your minimum-viable product a near-clone of an existing product that works but not in your market? That seems like a very sound strategy to me. Once he gets some traction and begins to see what improvements he should make in the context of his market, the product will begin to diverge.

If Tumblr wants to localize to China with an all-new Chumblr, then we can start fighting over IP theft. Until then, the guy is simply doing a service.

Blogs used to be superior to mainstream media because they gave the straight facts while avoiding the sensationalism that plagues modern day media. It's too bad the latest wave of bloggers are all wanna-be journalists.

Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#69

Post by bad_user »

uniclaude wrote: post #43
holdenc wrote: post #10

Tumblr will have the last laugh here. There's practically no market for tasteful online advertising or paid software in China. So, while he might rack-up users it will be hard to monetize this.

I live in China (well, 40% of my time), work for a social network, and I think you're wrong. Tumblr is sometimes blocked here, and I would bet that it's going to have the same destiny as Facebook and Twitter here. The local Facebook clones work very well here, as does the local Twitter clone (that employs something like 500people). Meanwhile, the "originals" are blocked, and only people who can access internet throug…

So basically this is a business model that can only survive because of restrictions set by the current government.

What will happen if China and the US reach some kind of agreement, and unlocking online US-services will be part of it?

AND when cloning physical goods (like phones, cars, clothes, shoes, whatever) -- you can export them, since people are willing to pay lower prices for clones. How can you export a Tumblr or a Twitter clone, when both are freemium?

How are these clones surviving? Do they generate revenue, when Tumblr, Twitter and Facebook can barely do it?

Something is not right about this picture ;)

Re: Former Google VP Kai-Fu Lee Got a Nickname, Start-Copy Lee

#70

Post by elliottcarlson »

kragen wrote: post #66

Some other important look-and-feel clones: Windows (copying MacOS) Lotus 1-2-3 (copying VisiCalc) GNU/Linux (copying Unix) Gosling Emacs (copying ITS and Multics Emacs), which eventually became GNU Emacs Excel (copying Lotus 1-2-3, to the point that VisiCalc slash commands still work in Excel last time I tried them about five years ago) OpenOffice (copying Microsoft Office) C compilers everywhere (copying the origina…

Though there is something wrong with directly copying UI elements with just a text change - that should be completely frowned upon and called out imho.

Other than that - competition is good, and imitation should be seen as you are doing something good, now just make sure you can keep up or do it better consistently unless you want your competition to take over the market share.

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