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If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

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Re: If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

#61
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is this even remotely practical? You're only allowed to have political ads on nationally shown TV programs? Choosing to show an ad in Wisconsin and not California is "targeting".

I think only allowing the advert to be targeted at the level that the campaign is being run in is reasonable. i.e. if you are campaigning for Governor of NY, you can target New York state, but you can't target Manhattan, or Long Island, or men over 50, or people who liked the NRA.

So about the only allowed form of advertising is mail addressed to "Occupant" sent to every postal address that is in the jurisdiction the office represents?

Nearly everything else will generally only reach a subset of the voters, and that subset will have known demographic differences from the overall voter demographics for the jurisdiction.

Run an ad at in the 8-8:30 PM Sunday slot on every FOX TV station in a state, for example, and you'll get quite a different demographic than if you ran an ad on those same stations on Sunday afternoon. The first ad would be during "The Simpsons" and the second would probably be during an NFL football game.

Re: If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

#62
post #18
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember media singing praises for Obama campaign about how effective they were with social media. Using that to contrast him to mccain who apprently didn't know how to use email.

This realization really pushed me away from mainstream media entirely. I explicitly remember and can still find articles about Obama's campaign being cutting edge by using "behavioral data" ( https://theweek.com/articles/451328/how-obama-won-internet ). Yet when the same actions were taken by conservative candidates it was ridiculed. As an independent I just couldn't trust these sources any longer. Yes the methods of…

That's what Karl Rove was originally famous for. There's a picture of young Karl Rove holding a reel of magnetic tape, from his analytics days.

Re: If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

#63

Recent lengthy New Yorker article on the same topic, Simulmatics in the JFK presidential campaign: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/08/03/how-the-simulm... And a couple subsequent letters from readers on the article: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/09/07/letters-from-t... The New Yorker article was odd to me for a New Yorker article, it had a lot of historical context without a lot of details of what S…

I stopped opening any link to a New Yorker article. I just can't stand their style. It looks like they prefer it over anything else. Life is too short to read 10000 words on something and the author still not get to the point.

Re: If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

#64

Apologies for not reading the article, but the key feature of Cambridge Analytica seems to have been that their stuff didn’t appear to work.

Yes, it did work: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22466733 Cambridge Analytica were the tip of the iceberg (graphcommons.com)

Okay. I quickly scanned the linked graphcommons presentation (?). Instead of responding to that directly, I'll share the thesis I've been chewing for a while.

I worked on election integrity stuff for about a decade. Opposing the touchscreens, tabulators, and other blackboxes. Advocating for better administration. That kind of stuff.

Like with all learning, my understanding of the problem dramatically changed over time.

The biggest threat to election integrity is change. With great reluctance I came to the view that any future changes had to be slow-rolled, even the phase out of the touchscreens. Think of it as how first responders stabilize the patient before transporting that patient.

The second biggest threat is noise. It's the asymmetry of bullshit principle. It's just so fucking hard to figure out what's going on. We spend all our time chasing wild gooses. So much slips past our attentions.

Only then can I think of the actually machinery of democracy. Stuff like form of elections, procedures, transparency, etc.

This frame and my own campaign work (stumping, GOTV, etc) informs how I regard CA and others.

The biggest threat CA poses is Steve Bannon's "flood the zone" with bullshit strategy. With so much activity below the radar, it's impossible to talk rationally about this stuff. Because there's always more to the story. Which is the trap, the exact purpose of Bannon's strategy.

The skeptics say CA, social media, etc. didn't effect voter behavior, specifically costing HRC the election.

That's entirely besides the point.

Other factors absolutely moved voters. We could stack rank them. Comey's betrayal is probably the biggest. My two personal faves are HRC's reliance on negative partisanship (too many attack ads), and HRC's desperate need to tangle with corporate media (instead of just creating HillaryTV and speaking directly to voters like Trump did with Twitter).

But there are many fights in the margins that most commentators completely ignore or outright dismiss. What we election integrity people called "death by a thousand cuts." It's never just one thing that makes the difference. That's too obvious and will eventually be corrected. Rather it's the cumulative damage of 1,000s of small attacks. Asymmetric war fare.

By keeping the contest "close", it becomes possible for the jitter (noise) to make the difference, depending on timing of the snapshot (when you measure).

And now we get to what CA and others did. Buried in all the noise, they used HRC's stolen voter file to precisely target and overwhelm "undecided" and low motivation voters. Maybe 500,000 voters in total. Tiny percentage of the electorate.

And Trump got lucky. It was just barely enough. Smaller in impact than say Jill Stein's spoiler. But on top of every thing else, it made the difference.

("Undecided" in quotes, because that's another topic onto itself.)

Re: If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

#65
post #9
post #2

What’s fascinating is that prior to CA helping targeting in the previous election cycle, this capability was kind of embraced by politicians and industry as the next evolution in political campaigning... but few recognized an issue with that kind of data usage at the time...

I remember media singing praises for Obama campaign about how effective they were with social media. Using that to contrast him to mccain who apprently didn't know how to use email.

Obama's was a get out the vote campaign which is different from Trump and Russia's active misinformation campaigns.

Re: If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

#66
post #38
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is to not allow targeting for political ads. Costs will go up as you'll be competing for same eyes, and you'll have to spend more to reach everyone you want - plus has added benefit of allowing to see what messaging and narratives opposition is perpetuating.

It might be a solution although I think regulating this specific form of political ads would have unintended negative consequences. I think things like hard cap campaign contribution limits (as in overall campaign fundraising cap rather than by donor type) could do more good to even the playing field. And it should reduce the web of "IOUs" that elected officials come into office with.

super pacs and citizen united are the problem.

Re: If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if money remained the engine of political campaigns. But if others can't raise money either, then I think that helps the grass-roots candidates.

People who already have money could just spend it directly in that world, couldn't they?

They already do in this one. I will admit it would give the rich more of an edge.

Re: If Then: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

#68
post #21
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This realization really pushed me away from mainstream media entirely. I explicitly remember and can still find articles about Obama's campaign being cutting edge by using "behavioral data" ( https://theweek.com/articles/451328/how-obama-won-internet ). Yet when the same actions were taken by conservative candidates it was ridiculed. As an independent I just couldn't trust these sources any longer. Yes the methods of…

The solution is to not allow targeting for political ads. Costs will go up as you'll be competing for same eyes, and you'll have to spend more to reach everyone you want - plus has added benefit of allowing to see what messaging and narratives opposition is perpetuating.

The choice of what issues to run on is in itself targetting regardless of where it is run. I am not sure what good that would even do given it is already well known that political stances at rallies vary by venue.
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