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Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

nytimes.com

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Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#61

Post by mr_toad »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #23
dumbfounder wrote: post #17

It has been said that there is some likelihood that exposure to a previous Coronavirus made some people partially resistant to Covid-19. Would that mean that there is a chance that some people test positive for Covid-19 antibodies due to a different strain of Coronavirus?

I don't think so. Antibodies are pretty specific. However it's possible and there is some data to suggest that some people have T-Cell level immunity to SARS-Cov-2 that was likely induced by exposure to an earlier coronavirus.

> Antibodies are pretty specific.

Not always. Famously, cowpox antibodies protect against smallpox.

Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#63

Post by aaron695 »

raducu wrote: post #38

27% of people have antibodies, thus 2.4 million were infected. 23k deaths, thus a 1% mortality rate. I guess this the final nail in the "this is just a flu" .

> 27% of people have antibodies, thus 2.4 million were infected. 23k deaths, thus a 1% mortality rate.

1% would be to high given the data elsewhere.

Did the population this study looks at have a death toll of 23k and what was the population exactly?

I'd think a top priority in the world would be to tie this number down properly. And this study seems solid.

The fact children are a higher infection rate in the study is not good, because it implies the mortality rate is higher again than 1%.

Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#64

Post by raducu »

rumanator wrote: post #59
raducu wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right, I missed that the number of tests was ~1 million, no way that was randon testing. So, probably the mortality rate is higher. I wonder if there is any bayesian tricks to estimate the infection range given 1/8 people got tested, regardless of selection bias. edit: actually the overall deatheate could be lower, because we know the number of deaths, but not the exact number of infected -- if overall the in…

> because we know the number of deaths We only know estimates of the number of deaths. The correct number lies somewhere between the official number of covid19 fatalities and the total number of deaths during the same period, because one hand you have excessive mortality and on the other hand you have changes to the baseline due to changes in behavioral patterns. Excessive mortality are higher than officially recogni…

Do you know any numbers for that excessive mortality in NYC?

That would be pretty interesting.

Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#65

Post by jowiar »

Auracle wrote: post #47
raducu wrote: post #38

27% of people have antibodies, thus 2.4 million were infected. 23k deaths, thus a 1% mortality rate. I guess this the final nail in the "this is just a flu" .

For a good percentage of the population it is about as deadly as the flu though, perhaps even less. For a smaller percentage of people it’s far more deadly than the flu. I still think we could have gotten through this quicker if we didn’t lock down the young and healthy, while taking extra care to keep at risk populations safe.

There’s a non-death outcome that seems pretty bad and pretty common that’s hit the young and healthy, which is “seriously fucked up for an indeterminate amount of time”. As someone who is decently young and healthy, our lack of understanding of that outcome is what still has me scared of this thing, and why “just let it get everyone get it” feels like a nonstarter.

Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#66

Post by raducu »

nimbius wrote: post #60

Disclosure: I suffered through two weeks of covid The test for me was $165, and my insurance would not cover it. My recovery was punctuated with almost daily calls from the local hospital i tested at asking me to come back for a follow-up antibody screen for research purposes. This was $400. It was not covered by insurance so I skipped. I was then contacted by my insurance company asking if I had completed the antibo…

I think I saw a reddit post about hospital collection agencies, there was some good advice there; I'm not an american citizen so I'm in no position to give advice; I hope you sort it out without paying the 600$.

Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#67

Post by collyw »

sod wrote: post #22
collyw wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem skeptical about herd immunity being a thing. This video discusses studies showing that immunity should be long lasting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5Z6wdu1eI0&t=270s

> the antibodies might not last for more than three or four months He says a few seconds into your timestamp. Thank you for trying to soothe my thoughts. But now I'm even more concerned. Wouldn't that render a vaccine pretty useless if it's gone after 4 months?

There are more than just antibodies involved in the immune response. (It wasn't my intention to timestamp the video, I just grabbed what was in the url bar).

Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#68

Post by collyw »

monadic2 wrote: post #35
sod wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the antibodies might not last for more than three or four months He says a few seconds into your timestamp. Thank you for trying to soothe my thoughts. But now I'm even more concerned. Wouldn't that render a vaccine pretty useless if it's gone after 4 months?

Antibodies simply teach memory cells, which is what gives you the secondary (long-lasting) immune response. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_B_cell Still, it's an absolutely brutal way to handle the virus and it's accepting deaths on the order of large wars.

Yet we handle influenza that way every year. Covid is a worse virus, but not orders of magnitude worse.

Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#69

Post by sunopener »

hpkuarg wrote: post #9
williamstein wrote: post #7

As if this wasn't all confusing enough, the worst hit area is named Corona: "The hardest hit ZIP code in the city — 11368 — was the one in Corona, a predominantly Hispanic neighborhood..."

Like we needed any more proof that we live in a simulation.

Here you go, more proof, the CoronaVirus Anthem: https://youtu.be/Ah0Ys50CqO8

Re: Antibody tests show what parts of NYC were hit hardest

#70

Post by jessaustin »

qntty wrote: post #41
jessaustin wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Irony is a quality of communication, not of reality. God doesn't make us sick in order to converse.

The expression cosmic irony or "irony of fate" stems from the notion that the gods (or the Fates) are amusing themselves by toying with the minds of mortals with deliberate ironic intent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony#Cosmic_irony_(irony_of_f...

As detailed at your link, this is the sort of thing that happens in Thomas Hardy novels, which are also communication.
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