Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever • Hacker News Board

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#61

Post by Nursie » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:45 PM UTC

arotical wrote: post #2

I've seen the term 'evidence-based policy' pop up all over the place. I take issue with people who use this phrase because most of the time their definition of evidence is not very well developed, and when the evidence is something they don't like they start to stretch their definition of evidence so they can dismiss implementing a certain policy. If evidence is only restricted to, and dictated by, academic papers, y…

I don't believe that all policy should 100% have to be formed from scientific evidence, but there are places where the evidence is well researched and well understood, yet politicians legislate based on their own prejudices, directly flying in the face of both experts and evidence.

In the face of this sort of behaviour, is it not reasonable to ask for more evidence-based policy? Or at least that real evidence be considered where it is available?

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#62

Post by unabst » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:45 PM UTC

jfengel wrote: post #26

Press2forEN wrote: post #6

> An engaged and well-informed public has always been the foundation of our democracy Is there even a shred of scientific evidence to support this hypothesis? I see it in print so often that it appears to be a axiom that is considered so correct as to be unquestionable.

Democracy has never really relied on people being well-informed. The "wisdom of crowds" incorporates a lot of ignorance. It just assumes that ignorance is random, while informed opinion will tend to have a bias in favor of reality. If 49% of the people make a random guess one way, and 49% of people make a random guess the other way, then 2% of people who actually know something will put the best-informed answer over…

The 98% are never split equally. And some percentage of 100% is always swayed by propaganda. That's why it's propaganda that pushes the vote over the top. And in today's democracy, its done under the guise of "education". That's why the self-declared "engaged and well-informed" are often the most targeted, readily swayed, and eager to back the wrong movement.

The anti-vaccine movement is one example of the engaged being swayed to total conviction, and it's easy to question whether they truly care about their children, but love is their motivation. Similarly, many "wrong" movements are for the love of democracy of the country etc.

And looking at the bullet points at the end of the article, those are what even the "wrong" are doing, extremely proactively. And it all starts with the "educator" claiming to be the "reliable information source", which happens to be what Scientific American is also doing here.

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#63

Post by Nursie » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:48 PM UTC

faangFar wrote: post #45

ohduran wrote: post #34

Maybe the reason we are in this mess is because we relied too much on science, and too little on actual humanities (rhetoric, logic, and so on)? I hear about hermeneutics more and more in my circle: how to communicate trumps what is communicated. I can see why Fauci and many top scientists fail to convince people like Trump and his supporters: he knows, but can't communicate what he knows so that information is conve…

I come from a logical background and I wonder if statistics should take priority over nitty gritty science. Yes we understand pandemic physics, but we should be looking to prioritize a strong majority policy rather than the few. I don't think Fauci uses statistics in his reasoning.

Who are these "few" in your opinion? In what way are they being prioritised over the majority?

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#64

Post by jp555 » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:50 PM UTC

btrettel wrote: post #30

jp555 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“When you mix politics and science, you get politics.” — John M. Barry from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Influenza

As far as I can tell, that quote does not appear in the cited book. https://books.google.com/books?id=BYsW6qTP0pMC&printsec=fron... A nearly identical quote appears in this editorial by the same author: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/opinion/coronavirus-shutd...

Ah nice thx!

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#65

Post by pnw_hazor » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #60

cuspy wrote: post #55

Given the track record of institutional science and the ever-growing list of regulatory failures, moral failures and outright abuses pushed in the guise of scientific expertise, why do so many people seem to think that simply doubling down and bullying the general population into compliance with expert consensus will ever work? What if institutional science in the US has a legitimacy crisis because it has failed to p…

Science in America tends to be practiced in universities, and universities in America are no longer open to the free exchange of ideas. While it may look like the public is losing faith in science, it's actually the public losing faith in the platform on which science is practiced: academia. If we want the public to regain faith in scientific findings, we need to fix academia.

It doesn't help that the critical theorists taking over American universities are openely hostile to critical thinking and the scientific method.

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#66

Post by arotical » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:54 PM UTC

Nursie wrote: post #61

arotical wrote: post #2

I've seen the term 'evidence-based policy' pop up all over the place. I take issue with people who use this phrase because most of the time their definition of evidence is not very well developed, and when the evidence is something they don't like they start to stretch their definition of evidence so they can dismiss implementing a certain policy. If evidence is only restricted to, and dictated by, academic papers, y…

I don't believe that all policy should 100% have to be formed from scientific evidence, but there are places where the evidence is well researched and well understood, yet politicians legislate based on their own prejudices, directly flying in the face of both experts and evidence. In the face of this sort of behaviour, is it not reasonable to ask for more evidence-based policy? Or at least that real evidence be cons…

yeah this is fair

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#67

Post by DoreenMichele » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

arotical wrote: post #2

I've seen the term 'evidence-based policy' pop up all over the place. I take issue with people who use this phrase because most of the time their definition of evidence is not very well developed, and when the evidence is something they don't like they start to stretch their definition of evidence so they can dismiss implementing a certain policy. If evidence is only restricted to, and dictated by, academic papers, y…

Social policy is inherently hard to get objective evidence for. Social experiments mostly don't work because the fact that it's an experiment alters the behavior of participants.

This is part of why I don't think there is any value in UBI experiments.

Our mental models influence the kinds of results we get. This is always true, but it's a bigger problem for some things than for others.

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#68

Post by AlexTWithBeard » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

Science is important. Science is great. I love science. Let's just be extremely careful when trying to apply the latest scientific achievements in our day to day lives.

Phlogiston theory of 17th century was wrong.

Race theory of 18th century was wrong.

Semmelweis was laughed at in 19th century.

And lobotomies were perfectly scientific for treating depressed patients for most of 20th century.

I doubt 21st century's science is any special here...

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#69

Post by jccc » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

vorpalhex wrote: post #22

mod wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. In my lifetime I have never known the average person to be engaged, nor informed. I think they're mostly mis-informed for the past 10+ years. People just believe whatever outlandish title comes across their facebook feed. I had about 12 people ask me if I heard the news--that wayfair was selling missing children on their website, disguised as fancy cabinets. It took me about 12 seconds to find out it was a t…

I made the terrible mistake of trying to convince someone out of this insane view only to remember the old quote, "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into". Maybe we should just devote the entirety of a school year to basic rationalism and logic...

It's difficult, tiring, and demoralizing to keep on and on trying to maintain sincere and reasoned argument with seemingly unreasonable and ignorant people.

But we really can't give in to that cynicism. These conversations almost always have an audience, and the point isn't just to convince this person in front of you and win, but to keep your side of the argument alive and in front of as many people as possible.

And to practice your own patience, sharpen your argument, and maintain bridges and relationships.

I'm sure most people can't do it, but if you can please don't throw up your hands and walk away, depriving perhaps many other people from hearing a point of view they might not otherwise ever hear.

[Edit: Of course I'm speaking generally here about climate denialism, etc., not specifically about the crazy conspiracy theory mentioned above.]

Re: Science and scientific expertise are more important than ever

#70

Post by cuspy » Wed, Aug 05, 2020, 5:57 PM UTC

manux wrote: post #59

cuspy wrote: post #55

Given the track record of institutional science and the ever-growing list of regulatory failures, moral failures and outright abuses pushed in the guise of scientific expertise, why do so many people seem to think that simply doubling down and bullying the general population into compliance with expert consensus will ever work? What if institutional science in the US has a legitimacy crisis because it has failed to p…

> scientists who can be bought off for nothing and blackmailed easily. Bought off by who? I presume the "elite families" you mention. So either way we are ruled by the wealthy in this model. There are other options of course and I assume you would agree, I just wanted to point out my surprise at this false dichotomy (that's not even a dichotomy since they're mostly the same scenario). I also agree 100% that STEM prof…

I was thinking primarily of other states or foreign entities who have an interest in undermining competitivity, stealing or suppressing emerging technologies. Mentioning elite families was as an illustrative contrast, since at least domestic entities (who may want to maintain a monopoly on certain technologies) would be less directly incentivised to undermine the institutions that serve them.