Live data from Hacker News

With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

economist.com

61–70 of 202 posts

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#61

I feel like this might go the other direction once the lockdowns end and once people realize a huge chunk of their "green" energy labeled as biomass is actually just burning down trees. Even if you use the fast growing forests used for paper in places like Oregon, there is still petroleum used in planting, cutting and fertilizing biofuel forests. In many ways, it's even worse for the environment than just burning the…

> a huge chunk of their "green" energy labeled as biomass is actually just burning down trees.

Nearly all it comes from some variety of grass. Be it corn, sugar cane or some foraging grass. Trees are way too inefficient to be practical.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#62
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It feels like this time is different because of the ongoing lack of demand. International flights from the US are looking to basically be nonexistent until there's a vaccine. After that, it's very plausible the business travel economy won't ever recover fully. I agree that some of the more foresighted countries are making some of the right moves (though Saudi Arabia is probably kicking itself for not moving forward w…

> International flights from the US are looking to basically be nonexistent until there's a vaccine. But there's likely going to be a vaccine in less than a year. It will take several years to know to what extent it's really safe or effective, but people who travel a lot for business can get it right away if they want.

Oxford vaccine is supposed to be done by September...

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#63
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not strictly a "wrong leaders" problem. It's much more systemic than that. Elect a good leader and the oil will provide the impetus to tear that leader down. Industry also won't form because of Dutch disease. Who wants to build a factory in Saudi Arabia even if it weren't unstable? Everything just costs too much because of the oil - land, materials, labor. Sovereign wealth funds also don't really solve the probl…

> Who wants to build a factory in Saudi Arabia even if it weren't unstable? Everything just costs too much because of the oil - land, materials, labor. So, import all the inputs you can and sell the output on the local market where everything is expensive. Dutch disease is way more complicated than just "there's too much money coming from this source, the economy is fucked-up". I would really like to see any non-simp…

Imported Inputs into a GDP will always be SPOF...

Wont they?

Like you need to have serious incentives to import all your inputs.

Else, you are a leeching economy regardless of the value of your goods (Apple)

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#64

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Emir of Dubai

I recall that quote.

Sadly, while prescient that quote is - he still is (has?) done nothing to mitigate its reality?

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#65

I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998... These petro states suffer from the curse of natural resources combined with leadership that is too busy feasting off of the intermittent boom cycle to prepare their people constructively for the bust that comes later. So you have entire countries that are basically dependent on the oil handout, and in bad times, have littl…

> I mean, this happened just a few years ago back in 2015, right? And 2008, and 2001, and 1998 The point here is that sub $40 oil is becoming the new norm. While these countries can weather a 2-3 year drop in oil prices, those short term drops are more and more frequent and the bottom keeps getting lower. Between electrification of transportation and reduced travel which may last for another 6 months (or much longer,…

"The point here is that sub $40 oil is becoming the new norm"

Crude is currently $41.74 as of 1:10PM EDT.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#66
It seems like the Middle East is going to get a double whammy from climate change.

1. Their economies will be affected as the world moves to non-oil based energy.

2. Their land will become more uninhabitable as time goes on. Higher temperatures, less water, more sandstorms, etc. I've seen studies that say the Middle East will be completely uninhabitable by the end of the century so we should expect mass migration from there to other places.

They will need money to combat number 2, but they will have less of that because of number 1.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#67
post #33

I feel like this might go the other direction once the lockdowns end and once people realize a huge chunk of their "green" energy labeled as biomass is actually just burning down trees. Even if you use the fast growing forests used for paper in places like Oregon, there is still petroleum used in planting, cutting and fertilizing biofuel forests. In many ways, it's even worse for the environment than just burning the…

Biofuel is a small industry. But the big difference is it's carbon neutral because the carbon released into the atmosphere came from the atmosphere. Oil is releasing carbon from prehistoric atmospheres.

Actually it is tax neutral, not carbon neutral. The kicker here is (i cant find the source anymore) at least in Germany agriculture is energy intensive. It seems one energy unit of crop need one energie unit of (tax excempted) fossil fuel (for the machineries).

So basically you are pumping fuel into a black box, and out comes bioful (which has tax breaks as well, if I remember correctly)

It is a left picket right pocket game.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#68
post #54
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not strictly a "wrong leaders" problem. It's much more systemic than that. Elect a good leader and the oil will provide the impetus to tear that leader down. Industry also won't form because of Dutch disease. Who wants to build a factory in Saudi Arabia even if it weren't unstable? Everything just costs too much because of the oil - land, materials, labor. Sovereign wealth funds also don't really solve the probl…

Norway kind of proves it is possible to make it work without the corruption. But Norway also proves that you need to lay the groundwork for that, before you lay any actual groundwork. I am not sure if these other oil producing states could reach a level of stability as Norway.

Norway used to be a relatively poor country by Western European standards but had a functional economy before oil. Homogeneity, a staunchly hard-working and independent population, being surrounded by lutheran economies, and "bondevett", is why Norway turned out well.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#69
Worth appreciating the economic dynamic the article is based on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse

Basic issue is that when a government can fund itself using resource extraction, it does not need the consent of a nation of people who would otherwise make up a tax base, so they pay the army and police out of oil money to keep them in power, and the average citizen is reduced to a subject. Trouble is, if all you need for power is control of the resources, it's not like you need to spend on winning hearts and minds when you can seize the resources with a relatively small rebel group. Given the high stakes of oil/resource billions and the very low bar to entry for cheap rebellions to seize them, these incentives are a recipe for the political shit shows we tend to associate with some resource cursed economies.

The predictable effect of oil price collapse is that leaders can no longer guarantee those payouts to the people who keep them in power, and as a result, those people will replace them with someone who can keep paying them. This is described in the DeMesquita-based idea of the "Rules for Rulers" video (https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs), which is related to the article's closing line about leaders getting their peoples consent.

The "Arab World," is a diverse place with a variety of multilateral interests so there are more dimensions to the outcomes than this, but the most obvious risk is that China will prop up whoever they can control in exchange for oil, and the mid-east will become the field for an China/US proxy war. The next risk is that unfortunately, if Arab leaders are reduced to winning hearts and minds to stay in power, they may do it with appeals to religious radicalism instead of democracy, which will bring about another era of state sponsored terrorism, that again, invites war.

Nice that we're using less oil which is good for the planet, but there is the small matter in the interim of what is good for humanity. The people who lose in these conflicts are never the participants, but the ones caught between them. These people will form new waves of refugees from the conflicts that can bring additional instability.

The precise knock-on effects of an oil price collapse can't be predicted, but you can anticipate the change in downstream volatility, and find a way to become indispensable in volatile times.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#70
post #11

It’s hard to feel bad for them but there are a lot of outcomes here which result in a lot of people dying. Pretty sure half the reason SA and friends promote violent, reactionary interpretations of Islam is to serve as a dead man’s switch in case of regime change.

Oil is basically what made the middle east a violent and reactionary place. Natural resources dominating the economy drives conflict and economic clusterfucks in all but the richest, most stable democracies (i.e. everywhere except Norway). Oil's decline in importance might be the only way to escape this cycle (even if it will probably lead to bloodshed first).

> Oil is basically what made the middle east a violent and reactionary place.

So, the Arab conquest after the 600s was not violent and reactionary?

Post reply on HN