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California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

nytimes.com

61–70 of 152 posts

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The governor's been clear that's part of the intended strategy; counties will be allowed to rush forwards as long as infection rates remain low, and then pull back if infections rise. He's consistently warned that some rollbacks should be expected.

The problem with this strategy is that it's been incredibly confusing; I'm getting whiplash from all the back-and-forth. The news reporting has been bad, as well, not clearly distinguishing between statewide and per-county (or for counties on the "watch list", which changes daily). My friends who are in the service industry have to figure out from day-to-day what they're going to be doing. This is just a giant mess.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I've been plugged in enough that I don't feel the whiplash much, but I can't imagine how confusing it would be to understand what's happening from just scrolling through headlines in the morning.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#62

California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…

The effectiveness of a middle ground strategy is pure conjecture. Canada shut down fast and hard - like California - and is not seeing cases spike. Perhaps because we re-opened slowly and people are still generally cautious - wearing masks in public and maintaining social distance. Or perhaps because we have not been getting wildly mixed messages from local/provincial/national leaders about the severity of the situat…

In SONOMA County --

Virtually 100% compliance with all mask and distance restrictions, has been absolutely amazing. I have seen NOBODY not wearing masks where required. They had a increase in case load that the county has attributed to 75% latino and has said they believe it is due to crowded housing, cramming to people into small apartments, something that has been going on here for decades. The rest they have said is directly attributed to a massive spread through nursing facilities, which was entirely expected and predictable. Since they reopened bars and indoor dining about 2 weeks ago almost nobody has opened dining rooms and the bars have been mostly empty. Now today they have closed bars, dining and things like the bowling alley. Done absolutely nothing about where the problem is and have started putting people out of business. The Casino however is open for business ! You can go smoke and play 21 in a crowd of hundreds, but can't take a shower at the gym. It's absurd how blatant they are making it about just pretending they can help. No leadership, causing great damage to so many and yet they are about to claim a great victory. Pathetic.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#63
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, when millions and millions of people become infected with an illness there will be a wide range of edge cases. But if reinfection within 6 months was anything other than exceptionally rare it would be obvious by now. Now if you had a peer reviewed study to link instead of media reports, I would be very interested.

Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. Seropositive tests have show the vast majority develop an immune response, how long that lasts we don’t know, but even if it’s only 6 months, that will reduce spread. You don’t create an epidemic plan based on edge cases. And it’s important to note that the tests are looking for viral RNA. Viral RNA can be found even if virus are inactivated in the absence of an active infection…

No one yet knows whether the antibodies detected in seropositive tests actually confer protection against getting sick from this virus.

For some viruses, like, say, HIV, you can have lots of antibodies against it, but still be sick with HIV.

It is not yet clear whether SARS-CoV-2 is like HIV in this sense or if the antibodies produced by the body after infection with the virus actually confer protection against future infections.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#64
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We keep hearing about how this trend will reverse soon, ("two weeks from now"), but that hasn't happened yet. It happened a week ago. It's easier to see when you look at a moving average. https://imgur.com/a/xGLRjGa https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-daily-deaths-trajec...

Yes, there's a blip at the end of the chart. But the headline is clearly that deaths have fallen ~70% even as total (reported) cases has continued to grow exponentially.

[deleted]

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#65

I'm very grateful for the rollbacks. I was against Newsome but how he's handled this pandemic is better than both Dems/Repubs. I understand he felt he was too 'heavy-handed' in the beginning but it was the correct decision. But...he's trying to appease the 'center' by allowing counties freedom to make decisions. Regardless, he's doing the right thing and I'm glad I moved here a few years ago. In conclusion, I hope Ga…

I agree with everything except creating legislature. That seems like a slippery slope in a country that doesn't pay for it's citizen's medical expenses.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#66
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada did not act in unison, it was very province-by-province. Ontario locked down quite hard, whereas British Columbia only required shutdowns of service businesses, and suggested everyone stay in.

My mistake. I guess I'm specifically speaking of Ontario.

Outside of Ontario & Quebec on really Vancouver and Calgary have had any notable cases. The infection rate country-wide is minor compared to California and almost all deaths are clustered in retirement and extended care facilities. Most importantly the health care system was never even close to overwhelmed. It's been a very different story than major US hotspots.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The governor's been clear that's part of the intended strategy; counties will be allowed to rush forwards as long as infection rates remain low, and then pull back if infections rise. He's consistently warned that some rollbacks should be expected.

The problem with this strategy is that it's been incredibly confusing; I'm getting whiplash from all the back-and-forth. The news reporting has been bad, as well, not clearly distinguishing between statewide and per-county (or for counties on the "watch list", which changes daily). My friends who are in the service industry have to figure out from day-to-day what they're going to be doing. This is just a giant mess.

It's also hard to rollback quickly when you've got a 2-week lag between when you steer the ship and when it starts to turn. I can't see how anything other than a gated approach over significant time can be preferable, unless the motivation is political (spoiler: it is).

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this strategy is that it's been incredibly confusing; I'm getting whiplash from all the back-and-forth. The news reporting has been bad, as well, not clearly distinguishing between statewide and per-county (or for counties on the "watch list", which changes daily). My friends who are in the service industry have to figure out from day-to-day what they're going to be doing. This is just a giant mess.

It's also hard to rollback quickly when you've got a 2-week lag between when you steer the ship and when it starts to turn. I can't see how anything other than a gated approach over significant time can be preferable, unless the motivation is political (spoiler: it is).

It is, but... should it not be? Politics is the process by which people decide what society should look like.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The effectiveness of a middle ground strategy is pure conjecture. Canada shut down fast and hard - like California - and is not seeing cases spike. Perhaps because we re-opened slowly and people are still generally cautious - wearing masks in public and maintaining social distance. Or perhaps because we have not been getting wildly mixed messages from local/provincial/national leaders about the severity of the situat…

It was all middle ground strategy from day one. The national lockdown was timed to the nyc wave and that was a probably a mistake depending on how you view the purpose of the lockdown. If it was to flatten the curve, outside of nyc, we did too much too soon and are now reaping the effects of “precaution fatigue.” It’s a marathon rather than a sprint, but each region, has its own race to run on it’s own timeline, it’s…

Or maybe it's just that the places where it spreads are indoor dining and bars, and people just won't stop overanalyzing it.

Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges

#70

These are the affected counties: https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282780070323515393 Notably, San Francisco isn’t included. Probably because SF hasn’t opened up as much as other counties on this list.

Neither had Contra Costa, yet here we are.
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