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Friends don't let friends get into finance

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61–70 of 147 posts

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#61
post #30

Finance firms put 100% of their time and energy into finding ways of making money out of existing money without producing any other value. Entrepreneurs do a little of this too, but foolishly allow themselves to be distracted by an irrational desire to also make novel and valuable contributions to society. Eventually the entrepreneurs will learn that a part time effort won't cut it and they can't beat the guys who gi…

Google. Zynga. Facebook. Intel. eBay. Apple. etc. All needed bankers to get them access to capital and grow faster, helping them hire more employees and contribute to our economy's growth and standard of living. I'd highly recommend you rely your points on empirical evidence over populist talking points.

Zynga contributed to the economy's growth? Really? Farmville increased average worker productivity?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#62
post #19
post #16

Article is totally absent of any substantive suggestions to "fix the problem". The real issue is that if you look at the risk-adjusted reward of doing or working at a startup, it doesn't compare well with working on Wall Street. And then there are those who say, let me do a few years on Wall St and then I'll pursue the startup thing. What happens during that time is they lose their entrepreneurial edge (they become c…

The title is a suggestion. Discourage your friends from putting their energies into creating financial products of dubious value and instead encourage them to engage in substantive work that makes a clearly positive contribution. Yes, yes, I know you want a secure source of income. Well, try think about ethics first, if not only.

It's not even about a secure source of income. Unless you're a founder, simply low-single-digit employee number doesn't give you enough equity to beat even a low-end finance job. Simple math: if you do your business, 9-to-5 only, you'll be in the 150-200k range within 5 years of graduation. If you decide to manage and make it up a rung or two, join a financial startup, or just make "tech lead/architect" double that income.

Unless you're a founder, having a five-year startup exit strategy that pays out similarly to the income you could have obtained in a straightforward manner in finance is a microsoft/google/facebook/twitter-style long shot. And, the latter two haven't even IPO'd yet to allow full vested share liquidity...

All my friends consider it a fairly soulless industry. Though they joke about patent troll/NPE firms in the way most techies joke about financial firms.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#63
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please explain how the government is "stealing money" for the banks. That is completely absurd. Monetary policy keeps the system in check to stabilize the economy.

How does a massive bail out 'keep the system in check'?

On the contrary, it encourages disfunction. "Let us remove the consequences of your failures." Gee, I wonder if that memory will make them so grateful that they'll be more careful next time? Sure. It's not like their whole industry is about predicting risks and rewards based on past experience.

Bah. The mistakes will be repeated and the bailout question will arise again. And it will be worse next time.

We should have had the guts to say "fail and die." It would have sucked, but not as much as crushing debt and a sequel.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's the non sequitur: 1) inflation makes it costly to hold money 2) inflation forces you to make stupid speculative investments and frequent trades The second doesn't follow from the first.

Most people buy mutual funds, which take a nice fee for doing work a dart-throwing monkey could do (no exaggeration). It would make more sense for people to buy a random sample of the S&P 500, but try telling them that.

Do you invest your money in a random sample of the S&P 500?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#65
Perhaps it's not a problem with finance but a problem with other industries that don't pay their people well. Who is to say that a CDO isn't a valuable economic activity?

If creating a CDO creates more value to the economy than designing an automobile why shouldn't engineers focus on building those?

People forget that prices and money are essentially information about the supply and demand of a good. As we progress in the information age deriving information from price will consume and produce ever more of our GDP. Spending money efficiently and directing it to the right purposes is a VERY valuable thing for a nation to do. Perhaps, dare I say it, more valuable than engineering widgets.

If YC had engineers figuring out algorithms to determine the best startups and they found one that worked it would be a very valuable piece of information. Or more relevantly, what if you had a site that required a lot of bandwidth and you could buy a bandwidth future? If you could buy that sort of thing you could offer 4 year contracts to your customers with out taking on any risk.

How about this instrument, a YC Summer 2014 startup future, it estimates the expected return from S14 and pays you if the return is less than expected. YC could sell them today and gain the advantage of knowing how many startups they could fund in S14. It would allow all sorts of people to pool their knowledge about what the Summer 2014 startup scene is going to be like. You might want to buy one right before the S14 season because you know that some great startup is applying, etc. If you held office space in SOMA you could use this as a hedge against losses incurred due to a poor S14 startup season.

Most complicated financial instruments are actually risk mitigation and/or information pools. The fact that that kind of thing is pricable due to these engineers spreads all sorts of great information to our economy that you can use to make informed decisions about how to conduct your affairs and you don't even need to participate in the market to use it.

Want to know what the best guess as to the price of oil in 6 months? Check the oil futures market. This one number contains the all the information known to man, vetted by experts as to what the supply and demand of oil is going to be in a few months. It also allows anyone with new knowledge to monetize that information and communicate it to all participants almost instantly. Southwest can offer cheaper flights because they use oil and jet fuel futures to buy jet fuel, the brilliant thing is that Exxon also gains knowledge of what Southwest and every other airline expects their passenger load to be in a few months and can make decisions accordingly.

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#66
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still find it hard to parse that as a problem. I mean, power generation only provides a benefit to society when someone uses the electricity to do something. So what? Infrastructure isn't inherently parasitic. Lots and lots of infrastructure isn't even necessarily bad. I view finance as infrastructure. The machinery that hooks investors up with investees is fundamentally useful. The machinery that lets people and b…

If you see finance as infrastructure to help other businesses grow (as I do), then it's growth should result in the growth of other industries. Instead what we see is finance growing and other industries declining. To me that suggests a general dysfunction in the role of finance. It simply isn't doing the good it's supposed to. There may be many or even most individuals who are acting in good faith, but the sector as…

What industries are declining? As far as I know, virtually every sector of the economy has grown. Manufacturing, medicine, education and technology certainly have.

What industries are declining, and why do you believe that finance has failed them?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#67
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be true if the losses from the last crash hadn't been socialized. If the financial industry had actually had to bear the consequences of the risks they take in the same way that entrepreneurs do, the decisions would be rational. As it is, the finance sector is protected by the government whereas startups are not.

When the collapse of Facebook presents systemic risk (or the illusion of system risk depending on your perspective) to the US, I'm sure it will get a "bail out" as well.

Seriously? You're saying that it's fine for the financial industry to hold the country hostage when they fail because there's equal opportunity for other industries to do that too if they too can become large enough?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#68
post #51

If investment banking is so needless, why did the economy falter when lehmen brothers went bankrupt? If high frequency trading is so needless, why does the entire market go into shock when the traders panicked and left on may 6th 2010? Most importantly- if these products are useless and harmful, why do people keep buying them?

If brain tumors are so unnecessary, why do people die from having them removed?

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#69
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://timetric.com/topic/us-gdp-all-statistics/ US GDP today is seven times higher today than it was 60 years ago. At the worst point in the recession US GDP dropped to the same level it was in 2005. Yes, the US GDP grew as much between 2005-2009 as it shrunk during the recession.

How much of that GDP growth is just the financial sector itself inflating?

Some of it, but not the majority of it. Industrial production is up and retail sales are up, for example.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RSFSXMV

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO

Re: Friends don't let friends get into finance

#70
post #51

If investment banking is so needless, why did the economy falter when lehmen brothers went bankrupt? If high frequency trading is so needless, why does the entire market go into shock when the traders panicked and left on may 6th 2010? Most importantly- if these products are useless and harmful, why do people keep buying them?

> If high frequency trading is so needless, why does the entire market go into shock when the traders panicked and left on may 6th 2010? Because HFTs, who enjoy the privilege of walking away from the market at the worst possible moment, had largely displaced traditional market makers who make expensive commitments not to do that. Nobody specifically chooses to do business with them, they're exploiting flaws in the wa…

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