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Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

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Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#61
post #27

It's pretty interesting that FAANG doing venture capital is basically like legal insider trading. They clearly have data on web traffic, consumer usage, advertising spend, etc. that other VC firms and investors generally don't have access to. They can use this to understand entire markets, see who the incumbents are, estimate revenue/users, see who's up-and-coming, etc. Obviously within some margin of error. I wonder…

First off, the best deals in VC have no real data. Some big part of fund-making today (Vintage 2020) will happen at the seed and pre-seed stage with pro rata rights. So what good is all of Facebook's data about some app that may only exist as an idea right now. Like "disappearing photos" or "miming song lyrics on video."

Expect Google Ventures instead. If you're a Facebook / Google / Microsoft exec it is extremely lucrative to get shares in a company (sometimes as an advisor, sometimes as an investor) then acquire it through the giant company you work for. A lot of Microsoft execs were newly minted millionaires with the LinkedIn acquisition; a lot of Google execs had the same with Nest. Dell, HP, Oracle, VMWare... execs do this all the time.

Lemme give you a broader perspective on, "Company does thing with its money with complex economics and risks outside of its primary source of revenue." These giant companies all have charitable foundations. If you're a main line employee, you want to donate something, your company will match it, it uses an outside contractor to vet the charity, it doesn't do any of that stuff for YOUR main line employee charitable contribution.

You're an exec, you get 10-100x the donation matching benefit as the main line employee, and for some reason it's done through the foundation. Which goes to your family's charity. Run by your wife and kids.

A lot of this stuff boils down to, "executive compensation plans." It's everywhere! The Overstock CEO's ICO scheme was insane. Normal people just buy back stock you know? But it's gotta be creative, take people by surprise.

Some exec had to be motivated to do this and they're going to be motivated by their own personal money. No different than a VC. It doesn't mean that just because it's Facebook and not some VC firm they'll do any better. My expectation is they'll do a lot worse in both economic and accounting terms. The scheme will depend too much on Facebook being the acquirer in the long term so prices will be way inflated and insiders will be too incentivized to buy trash.

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#62
post #46
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> anyone can do their own legwork to get this information Can they though? My point is that FAANG companies are uniquely positioned by having access to this data that the public couldn't possibly have access to.

And hedge funds are uniquely positioned by having a bunch of economists and traders working for them. The point is it's not considered insider information.

Just like how CDNs are uniquely positioned with traffic data (and payment processors have spend data), right? ;)

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not really insider trading. Matt Levine pops up here all the time, and one of the really distilled mantras he has: inside trading isn't about fairness , it's about theft . Like the people who track flights to speculate on M&A, or use satellite and aerial imagery to look at parking lots. Gathering information isn't a crime, in fact gathering and acting on that information is explicitly what you want at an aggre…

> track flights to speculate on M&A, or use satellite and aerial imagery to look at parking lots This is very interesting, got any source or article? Thanks edit: found this https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/stock-v...

> Their big break came in mid-2010, when Neil Currie, then an analyst at the investment bank UBS, bought parking-lot counts for 100 representative Walmart stores and published the results in a quarterly earnings preview. The number of cars in the parking lots, he wrote, suggested that Walmart stock was undervalued.

> Currie’s prediction proved correct. As word spread that satellite images were a reliable predictor of corporate profits, a range of investment funds began buying retail-traffic data from RS Metrics.

Many cargo-culting orgs can use this as an example to learn "corelation != causation".

1. Buy shares of X; or bet a high-stake deal with X's board to up the stock price by N percent within a period T. 2. Run some offers/programs - which are intended at the theater - not real revenue. Instead of usual 200 cars a day, store might see 400 a day, sales numbers and volume remaining unchanged 3. Objective achieved; use propaganda marketing to sell the idea to others 4. This ups the stock price anyway - cuz data! 5. Collect bounty from X's board for making good on promise 6. Profit!

The theater might not be as simple as what's seen in this example, but this is exactly what startups in one way or other call "hustle" - and possibly the art of faking it till you make it.

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#64
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse..." "... one billion dollars in cash and stock."

I mean, that’s a bit of the stretch. The implication in “an offer he can’t refuse” is that the mob is going to kill you if don’t accept the offer, not that they are going to drown you in more dollar bills than you can swim through.

[deleted]

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#65
post #28
post #23

Facebook is the modern day internet gangster cartel, they are not even trying to hide it any more. This is an obvious trap that is easy to avoid. Sadly, I doubt there is any company that can take them on.

How does investing in startups make you an internet gangster cartel?

[deleted]

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#66
post #23

Facebook is the modern day internet gangster cartel, they are not even trying to hide it any more. This is an obvious trap that is easy to avoid. Sadly, I doubt there is any company that can take them on.

The silly rhetoric here is not warranted, especially without any evidence to back up your points.

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#67
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse..." "... one billion dollars in cash and stock."

I mean, that’s a bit of the stretch. The implication in “an offer he can’t refuse” is that the mob is going to kill you if don’t accept the offer, not that they are going to drown you in more dollar bills than you can swim through.

That was the point of the joke :)

I don't mean this impolitely - the fact it wasn't clearly obvious as a joke means I should have tried harder.

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#68

I wouldn't take a penny from Facebook. You know they will lock down any patent you create and steal your IP.

And? You'd probably walk away with at least 6 digits in your bank account. 7 or maybe 8 if you're lucky.

This is the kind of money I wouldn't say no except for a very good reason.

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#69
post #27

It's pretty interesting that FAANG doing venture capital is basically like legal insider trading. They clearly have data on web traffic, consumer usage, advertising spend, etc. that other VC firms and investors generally don't have access to. They can use this to understand entire markets, see who the incumbents are, estimate revenue/users, see who's up-and-coming, etc. Obviously within some margin of error. I wonder…

That's not really insider trading. Matt Levine pops up here all the time, and one of the really distilled mantras he has: inside trading isn't about fairness , it's about theft . Like the people who track flights to speculate on M&A, or use satellite and aerial imagery to look at parking lots. Gathering information isn't a crime, in fact gathering and acting on that information is explicitly what you want at an aggre…

And that exactly is the problem. The game is rigged in favor of folks who already have access to information (or can afford to buy it), not available to regular folks. That is how billionaires double their billions faster than me essentially playing lottery/roulette with my $1000 on Robinhood.

Re: Facebook establishing a venture arm to invest in startups

#70
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, that’s a bit of the stretch. The implication in “an offer he can’t refuse” is that the mob is going to kill you if don’t accept the offer, not that they are going to drown you in more dollar bills than you can swim through.

That was the point of the joke :) I don't mean this impolitely - the fact it wasn't clearly obvious as a joke means I should have tried harder.

It definitely whooshed over my head.
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