Live data from Hacker News

Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

bloomberg.com

61–70 of 182 posts

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taking physical delivery and hedging are not one and the same. It’s entirely possible to use a cash settled future to hedge against market movements; the farmer sells at a steep loss, but their cash settled wheat futures offset a large percentage of the loss on a cash basis. The distinction you’re looking for here is those who are speculating on market prices, vs. those who are hedging against market prices. If you u…

That is the point I was trying to make. Basically if you're in the business of producing or buying and selling the commodity the futures are for you. If you're just speculating how does that help anybody? I guess you could make the argument that having more eyes on the market means there is more information so the price is a better reflection of the true value.

It's a good question. Most markets have (or at least used to; I've been out of this a long time) a special class of speculator called a market-maker; they get discounted fees in exchange for providing liquidity. That way a seller doesn't have to wait around for a buyer.

Speculators in theory also provide liquidity, and in theory also contribute to keeping the prices "correct" (meaning at levels that reflect what's known). But it's not like any given speculator personally cares about that; they're just looking to gamble and win. Last I heard there was reasonable evidence that more gets spent on speculation than is delivered in benefits to the economy. So you suspicion is not unwarranted.

But there's another class of people who neither create nor consume the product, but have some financial interest in something related. E.g., suppose you sell farm equipment. You know that if wheat farmers have a bad year, you'll have a bad year, because they will put off buying your new tractors. To even things out, you can use wheat derivatives to essentially buy insurance on wheat prices. If wheat prices are normal, you lose a little money. But if they fall through the floor, you make money, hopefully counterbalancing the income from lost sales.

When this activity is significant enough, it can lead to the creation of synthetic commodities. E.g., if you are in the snowplowing business, maybe you want to insure against winters being abnormally snowy. You could maybe do something with a fuel oil future. But that's kinda tenuous. Instead now you can just trade weather futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/weather/

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other issue here is that there IS an economic justification: everybody bid up the price of storage. If it costs me $60 to store a barrel I can sell for $10 later, then I'll pay someone $40 to take it off my hands now. An asset became a liability, hardly a rare concept to anyone who has owned a car they had to pay someone to tow away... CEO is just passing blame.

Interesting point. Have we commoditized and securitized the storage of commodities yet? Can someone purchase oil storage futures contracts to mitigate this risk?

I think there might be a market for that but probably not as formal as the trading of oil futures themselves. Basically a more private transaction on a marketplace that isn't as visible or as liquid as the futures.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other issue here is that there IS an economic justification: everybody bid up the price of storage. If it costs me $60 to store a barrel I can sell for $10 later, then I'll pay someone $40 to take it off my hands now. An asset became a liability, hardly a rare concept to anyone who has owned a car they had to pay someone to tow away... CEO is just passing blame.

Interesting point. Have we commoditized and securitized the storage of commodities yet? Can someone purchase oil storage futures contracts to mitigate this risk?

You can buy FFAs

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#64
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you get into the market for physically settled contracts with no intention of taking delivery, then you're almost certainly a speculator. I'm not sure that it's the market's job to make that safer for you. I am not justifying inaccurate pricing. Burning speculators is fine, but give everyone accurate information.

Or possibly someone who needs large amounts of oil and want to hedge against fluctuations? Freight industry, airliner, etc.

Good lord, if you actually need the oil, then take delivery!

The issue here is total speculators using PHYSICALLY settled contracts to speculate who don't want delivery.

The number of people who need WTI are pretty few - refiners and some small others. Seriously - with WTI you still need to refine it - airlines CANNOT just load WTI into their tanks.

These sob stories from folks who supposedly were bidding to take delivery of physical oil (unrefined) from a condo somewhere are ridiculous.

To trade futures you need to certify you understand them. I'd love to see the form this guy filled out listing what was likely a fair bit of bogus experience.

I'm fine with all these idiots getting burned.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#65

Wasn't the original purpose of futures to let farmers and others lock in prices early so they can mitigate risk? Speculation on futures seems dumb if you have no intention of taking delivery.

A lot of businesses are impacted by the price of oil even if they don’t directly take delivery. It serves as a really valuable hedge for airlines for example, where it’s a key cost driver, even if it has to go through a refinery first.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#66
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No.

It may have been ICE's crude contract, which is cash settled: https://www.theice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures "The West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Oil futures contract is cash settled against the prevailing market price for US light sweet crude."

Sure, but a majority of trading was done on CME futures. In either case, you still ran into the issue of negative prices. USO only recently started explicitly stating that they would also potentially invest in ICE futures alongside CME futures.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#67

Incorrectly assuming values can never be negative is an all-too-common occurrence in trading and financial software. In 2012 Swedish stock futures trading was suspended for a time because their matching engine used an unsigned type for order quantities and someone submitted an order with a negative value which wrapped around to 4 billion: https://www.reuters.com/article/markets-sweden-bug/swedish-s... Interactive Bro…

>Interactive Brokers' software is usually very solid. That is certainly not my experience. Endless bugs in TWS over the years, and the support people are unbelievably rude. Every time I try to report a bug they start out by blaming me, it usually takes 2-3 back and forth rounds until they admit it's actually broken and tell me they'll forward the issue to the tech people. After that it's radio silence and you never k…

Completely agree. Their mobile app, TWS, API, and websites are all a nightmare. I left them as soon as I stopped trading on margin (the only really compelling reason to use them for a retail trader/investor).

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#68

For futures on physical deliverable objects (well, I guess most futures are such, but anyway) -- would volatility and speculation be dampened/improved if the clearinghouse forced everyone (or the seller) participating in a trade to certify that they had rights to the specific thing being traded? Could actually produce the contract -- like the oil producer is certified to have barrels allowed to be sold? My notion is…

> then most must be "speculation" by people who cannot actually produce the asset.

Let's just call it what it is: gambling.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#69

Incorrectly assuming values can never be negative is an all-too-common occurrence in trading and financial software. In 2012 Swedish stock futures trading was suspended for a time because their matching engine used an unsigned type for order quantities and someone submitted an order with a negative value which wrapped around to 4 billion: https://www.reuters.com/article/markets-sweden-bug/swedish-s... Interactive Bro…

I'm going to guess there's two teams involved on the IB side of things. There's financial engine team which processes and handles trades. And there is the UI team that displays the data and allows people to create trades. I bet the engine handled these fine and issue was that the UI team had data validation checks to prevent negative values.

Re: Oil crash busted broker’s computers and inflicted big losses

#70

Wasn't the original purpose of futures to let farmers and others lock in prices early so they can mitigate risk? Speculation on futures seems dumb if you have no intention of taking delivery.

Who would they lock their prices in with if not for speculators?
Post reply on HN