U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#61

Post by BLKNSLVR » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 2:40 AM UTC

vkou wrote: post #56

BLKNSLVR wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That becomes an exercise in defining essential services. I'd be interested in seeing the web of dependency for the absolute basics like food, and what other seemingly non-essential services are required in the production and distribution of food. Then, just within food itself, what of people with allergies and special needs, and separating the "real" from the "I think gluten free means healthier" types. It's the kind…

> That becomes an exercise in defining essential services. I'd be interested in seeing the web of dependency for the absolute basics like food, and what other seemingly non-essential services are required in the production and distribution of food. There aren't any. If you grow food, you're essential. If you ship food, you're essential. If you fix the trucks that ship food, you're essential. If you fix the air condit…

That's exactly why I'd like to see some kind of dependency web. I was going to mention additional things such as the utilities: power, gas, water, but food made the point well enough, and you've demonstrated the reach of one of its tentacles very well.

> The shutdown actually serves to keep these facilities open, because it has reduced the virus's spread through the population

Yes, in total agreement. I'm in favour of the shutdowns because I can see far enough ahead to know how much worse things would be if they didn't happen. Those who bemoan the damage to the economy strike me as either incredibly short-sighted or selfish or both. Admittedly, however, I'm coming from the lucky and mightily privileged position of not having lost my job (at this point), although I do have "that Damocles feeling" fairly constantly.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#62

Post by flukus » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 2:48 AM UTC

flomk wrote: post #13

I wonder if a meat shortage that causes people who previously hadn't eaten plant substitutes, will be enough to let plant substitute companies take a bigger chunk of the meat market for good.

The problem is that when there is availability fake meat can't compete on price, even with high local meat prices (mostly due to drought) real meat is still a much cheaper option. In my area 500g of ground beef is $6-7, up from $4 a year or two ago, but 300g of fake ground beef is $9. It just doesn't make sense to pay 30% more to get 30% less of an inferior substitute.

The question is why is the price so high, is it scale, inherent costs or just a virtue tax?

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#63

Post by mlyle » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 2:53 AM UTC

One thing no one has mentioned in all these articles I've read. Everyone mentions we have about a week of meat in cold storage, and that the level of meat production is falling below typical demand.

But it's not like the spigot is turning off / we're stopping all production. What's it falling to? If it's 85% of typical demand, that storage will stretch for awhile, especially because many people may be choosing cheaper staples to consume.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#64

Post by notacoward » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 3:07 AM UTC

flomk wrote: post #13

I wonder if a meat shortage that causes people who previously hadn't eaten plant substitutes, will be enough to let plant substitute companies take a bigger chunk of the meat market for good.

I was wondering the same thing. Even if the number of people who take that opportunity is small by meat-industry standards, it's still huge for companies like Beyond and Impossible. The market seems to agree; Beyond stock is way up in the past month. Wish I'd bought it when I first had this thought.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#65

Post by CWuestefeld » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 3:29 AM UTC

throwlaplace wrote: post #53

CWuestefeld wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily, this kind of supply shock isn't possible with produce. This isn't a problem specific to meat at all; the same kind of interruption to supply chains can occur anywhere through the economy. So you don't necessarily have the option of falling back on veggies.

>Luckily, this kind of supply shock isn't possible with produce. Vegetables have a longer shelf life than meat and grains a longer shelf life still. So you're just wrong.

And you're still making the mistake of focusing on one particular facet of the economy. Whether it's meat or vegetables or surgical masks or electricity or water or what-have-you, the economy is vastly interconnected. The way that tugging on one piece of that network may cause failures in other areas is all but unknowable. It's just wrong to shrug off one particular shock saying that you're ok with an alternative. You have no way to know what's going to fail next.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#66

Post by wmeredith » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 3:43 AM UTC

missedthecue wrote: post #18

vkou wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. We would need to print quadrillions of dollars to get hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is a boogieman, unless this administration completely loses its mind. 2. Recessions cause the destruction of money (Due to defaults, and lack of new loans). This causes deflation. If the new money created by the printing press does not exceed these deflationary pressures, you won't even get inflation, let alone hyperinflation. 3.…

>1. We would need to print quadrillions of dollars to get hyperinflation. Is there actually a mathematical equation that proves this or is that your conjecture?

I’d love to find out otherwise, but I don’t think so. Macro economics is social science, not mathematics.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#67

Post by pascalxus » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 3:46 AM UTC

nscalf wrote: post #44

pascalxus wrote: post #36

It's not commonly known but Vegetables, Grains and Beans are extremely excellent sources of protein. Most of them have between 10-20% or more of their calories from protein. if you want exact numbers, check out this: https://kale.world/c And, if people reduce their meat consumption form these shortages, it could have excellent results on people's health. The last time a country went completely without meat or dairy w…

Protein from those sources are not as bioavailable, and are therefore not “extremely excellent sources of protein”. Also, forks over knives has been disproven a hundred times over. Not saying everything in that doc is wrong, but it has enough wrong that it is not a credible source of information.

The China Study, one of the largest ever undertaken has been vetted and reviewed by 100s and thousands of scientists.

The case studies presented in the documentary are accurate and credible, with numerous historical facts.

As for bioavailability, the difference isn't very huge and you'll get more then enough amino acids from plant based sources without all the carcinogens that come from animal based sources.

Animals do Not make their own protein. They all get it from plants. Plants make the protein. Then the animals eat it. When you eat an animal, your just eating recycled protein. So, why not just cut out the middle man.

Meat has many problems. Dr. Milton Mills a stanford doctor, explains it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nti7JrBOQAk

Also, the people who live in the blue zones (the 100yr+ zones) typically eat very little or no meat/dairy.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#68

Post by cmurf » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 3:51 AM UTC

"the economy" is not any one thing, and this additional story is not enhancing any "the economy" argument. It correctly means everyone should be getting in line to sacrifice. And quite seriously HNers haven't sacrificed near enough. Most are working from home. Most are getting paid. Most have decent health care plans they don't have to worry about.

I've been reading HN for six years, and near as I can tell the vast majority don't support any health care rights, let alone universal health care. It's generally acceptable on HN that companies can fire people for being sick for too many days. There's no federally mandated sick leave at all. HNer's don't care about that.

I have more sympathy for HN interns who have lost their internships, except about 10 seconds later I remember just how young they are. They'll be fine.

And there are all the delivery persons, sacrificing more than most anyone that has the luxury of reading or writing here.

Very little is made on HN about how disproportionately health care workers are sacrificing family, sanity, health, and their lives. For no extra pay. They don't tend to get things like bonus pay at the end of the year, common among the HN crowd. Essential workers, most especially the ones stocking grocery stores full of jerks who refuse to wear masks or socially distance, likewise have no health care rights. They don't get bonus pay. If they get sick and are out of work for two months, they aren't assured they will be paid for time they didn't work. HN doesn't care about that. Routinely arguing against "socialist" laws that should try and make life actually fair, as contrary to the free market. Whatever that is.

And very little is recognized on HN about the consequences about "reopening" or "resuming" the economy on health care workers. It is a defacto demand: we own you; you are our slaves; you must work to protect us; work harder; sacrifice your lives; and above all, when the inevitably higher case load explodes you will choose who lives and dies. That is your job. To decide. And live with the scar of having chosen who lives and who dies. Deal with it. That is the demand behind every single "reopen" argument.

Maybe let's try to avoid freaking out about maybe not having dead pig on our sandwiches? It's degrading.

Those workers at shut down plants? They should have unemployment benefits pay them in the vicinity of 80%, at the least. That is not the system we have. HNer's don't care about that. It would be a competitive disincentive to free markets if the government were to compete with shit jobs no one really wants.

You know, and then there's the minority who consider universal basic income and universal health care from time to time. And I'm not talking about them. They're they minority on HN, near as I can tell.

South Korea has twice the population of NY state, and yet NY state has 62x the deaths. ROK and the U.S. had their first confirmed cases a day apart. It should humiliate every American what has transpired. Federal, state, parties, free market - across the board the result of deaths proves a culture wide incompetency. It's embarrassing.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#69

Post by mlyle » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 4:28 AM UTC

amalter wrote: post #52

mlyle wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now in the SF Bay Area, ICUs are below typical seasonal usage and the usage has been declining slowly for 3 weeks. I'm not saying we should "relax", but I think we have evidence that the slightly looser controls employed from mid-March to early April were effective-- that would be a good first step to go to now. Odds are that results in continued reduction, but if it results in slow growth instead we'd be OK in…

ICUs are below occupancy, but hospitals even in the Midwest are declining to do elective procedures because they can’t get enough PPE to handle run of the mill stuff. The US had been losing actual Hospital capacity every week, even with empty beds. When those beds fill in wave 2, get ready to donate your rain ponchos and industrial garbage bags.

Here's an interesting article. There's significant health care underutilization in the SF Bay Area due to preemptive cuts of elective procedures to prepare for a surge that didn't happen, and now health care workers are being cut:

https://abc7news.com/health/the-surge-that-never-came-leads-...

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#70

Post by mlyle » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 4:50 AM UTC

markdown wrote: post #59

mlyle wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, this raises the question-- what's an unacceptable level of risk? We obviously don't shut everything down because of 1 in 1,000,000 risks. We don't shut everything down for 250 in 1M risks (the flu). Here we have what's likely to be a 1,800 in 1M risk, based on the latest infection fatality rate numbers and the estimate of how many people would be infected before herd immunity. It's 7x worse than the flu. I…

Which is why shutting down non-essential services is a good half-measure. Meat-packing plants are an essential service, so they are allowed to remain open, but they are temporarily shut down once it becomes evident that a few workers have been infected and the risk of infection for the other workers rises to... as you put it "unacceptable". Sadly, in at-will employment states, only the rich get to decide what is an a…

In most at-will states, public health officials have been making the decision about "acceptable level of risk".

And, of course, any at-will employee is free to choose to not work in an environment that they personally consider to be too high of a level of risk, even if their employer and local public health officials disagree.

I'm in an at-will jurisdiction-- there's a whole bunch of people here who want to work but have been precluded from doing so because of public health orders.