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Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
61–70 of 98 posts
Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
The whole idea that 'being social' equates to 'socialism', the bogeyman edition is what will stop for instance the United States from adopting a more social agenda. Free - or at least affordable - public healthcare, public transportation, internet access and access to things like clean water should be a basic standard of living for any country that does not want to be labelled 'third world'. Instead, that whole agend…
The USA is effectively 50 countries with different demographics, geography, culture, and needs. Trying to impose any “one size fits all” solution won’t work because it’s not appropriate for a significant number of them.
No it's not, and the US is far from the only country that has a diversity of culture. The Canadian maritime provinces are extremely different from Nunuvut or downtown Vancouver. Paris is significantly difference than Nice. Shanghai is significantly different than Xinjiang province.
This is yet another annoying expression of American exceptionalism. Of course, it only ever comes up when someone says, "Maybe we should stop people dying because they can't afford healthcare."
The US is probably one of the most culturally uniform countries of any significant size I can think of honestly.
Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#63I think the challenge here is the government is probably offering better terms than can be expected from Buffet. If someone is offering me free money, and someone will give me money if I give them control of my company guess which one I'm calling first.
The US government as considered taking equity stakes, too. https://www.marketplace.org/2020/03/20/covid19-financial-bai...
The US government is receiving warrants as part of the airline bailouts. In the case of AAL, they could potentially dilute existing shareholders by 10%. Ridiculously generous terms on everything considering the alternative.
Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
The whole idea that 'being social' equates to 'socialism', the bogeyman edition is what will stop for instance the United States from adopting a more social agenda. Free - or at least affordable - public healthcare, public transportation, internet access and access to things like clean water should be a basic standard of living for any country that does not want to be labelled 'third world'. Instead, that whole agend…
The 'ism' is about control, not about benefit. Philosophically I agree that we need a better system the benefits everyone, and I agree with the gist of your comment. However saying we need socialism skips over the most important part of it -- the mechanism to achieve that. That's the hard part that we haven't quite figured out and need to discuss. The current narrative assumes that simply funnelling the money through…
How hard is this honestly...
Socialism -- Worker ownership of the means of production.
Socialism is not "when the government is big" or "when the government does things".
A big federal government is not socialism. Norway is not socialism. Heath care is not socialism. Unions are not socialism. China is not socialism (charitably it's a state-captialist government with the goal of achieving socialism, realistically it's an authoritarian state-capitalist government).
Maybe you use a big or authoritarian federal government to try to achieve socialism, but a big federal government is not necessary or sufficient for socialism.
Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#65This quote from Munger is what I find most interesting: > I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know. There are roughly 2 ways this could go if what he says actually happens. One is…
Countries with larger safety nets have basically similar levels of absolute poverty to the US (it is kind of tricky because most of those countries in the former are also far far smaller, and have very different population density/growth/migration patterns). And btw...yes, in other countries if you lose your job you can lose your house...this is true everywhere (and the US already has a public health system that is 5…
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Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
In rural communities, you're most often getting your water from a well. I grew up in an area like this, with a pumped well and septic system. There was no need for public water infrastructure because the density did not necessitate it, and the natural aquifer more than provided for those needs.
That's fine. Those people have "access to clean water". Any guarantee of such needs to take into account the various ways people obtain clean water, and make sure one exists. It might just be someone noting, "nice, they have a functioning well with plenty of capacity, good to go". If they don't then the government should fix that, either by running a public water system to that location, or drilling a well. If that's…
Wells and septic systems are often regulated by state and local zoning laws. So, houses are not sellable without these things, as it stands. The initial builder of a house pays for the installation. And then it passes to the next owner as part of the property. Property owners are ultimately responsible. Landlords are responsible for providing clean water in accordance with tenant-landlord law. In U.S. this problem has long been solved. Sometimes you get poor local management like Flint, MI that screws things up. But by and large, solved problem.
Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
The whole idea that 'being social' equates to 'socialism', the bogeyman edition is what will stop for instance the United States from adopting a more social agenda. Free - or at least affordable - public healthcare, public transportation, internet access and access to things like clean water should be a basic standard of living for any country that does not want to be labelled 'third world'. Instead, that whole agend…
The USA is effectively 50 countries with different demographics, geography, culture, and needs. Trying to impose any “one size fits all” solution won’t work because it’s not appropriate for a significant number of them.
What's interesting though is that states that reject the notion of safety nets because "one size does not fit all" are doing the worst. Perhaps if they gave it a try, they might see that it does fit. But then we see that the problem is actually that of bought politicians.
Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#68This quote from Munger is what I find most interesting: > I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know. There are roughly 2 ways this could go if what he says actually happens. One is…
Among the many problems with that idea is that no one agrees on the definition of a "fairly basic life." One leader's definition will be different from another, so we're ever at the mercy of gaining/losing benefits at the whim of (at least in the US) a distant and isolated ruling class.
At this point, anything is an improvement. But, the minimum should certainly include the "basic needs" of physiological needs and at least partial fulfilment of safety needs, which are at the bottom of Maslow's heirarchy [0].
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Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
I totally agree. Some of the same people who roll they eyes at homeless people asking for change and fire employees for a couple weeks of low productivity are the same people who are now taking free money from the government without any guilt.
Sometimes I wish we could pick a US state and turn it into this vision. Social safety net for all, free healthcare for all, no loopholes for the rich. There are so many people who would like to see how this plays out. And more importantly, the expectation of the outcome varies WILDLY from smart person to smart person. Personally, I believe this state would be bankrupt in a matter of years, companies that produce tax…
I'd love to see that experiment played out, but I suspect your "no loopholes for the rich" would cause them to flee to another state. States don't have the ability to tax anyone who is not a resident. On the federal level, this would not necessarily be so, since we can make it incredibly expensive for billionaires to renounce citizenship, by implementing a progressive "exit tax" that includes assets in the calculation.
Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wonder if that means Berkshire's recent bond offering was a mistake: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/12/this-warren-buffet... Berkshire has always held a ton of cash for just such an occasion. They can just buy up equity on the open market and take substantial control of a company. But, did they need even more money?
It's Yen-denominated debt-- mostly useful to Berkshire so they can make Yen-denominated investments without currency risk. It's at less than 1% a year, which costs virtually nothing given the options it opens up for Berkshire. And you'll note that that debt makes up less than 1% of its total cash position, it's really just there so Berkshire can buy something quickly in Yen if an opportunity shows up.
oh man. nothing you have said make any kind of sense.
if they have yen-denominated debt, then they have added currency risk
if it is 1% of their cash position, they can just use some cash and buy yens and have those yens available.
if they have hedged the bond currency risk, then they might as well have hedged it after buying yens in the open market
if it's 1% interest, it is still probably more than the interest they earn on their cash position.
just saying...
(MAYBE, maybe, its a tax issue)