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Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

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Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#61
post #17

I find it curious that in our current political climate / party system, liberals seem to be more okay with mandatory lockdown procedures, whereas conservatives are pushing back. The latter may be partially due to prior ideological commitments [0], but it's also somewhat counter-intuitive considering the known correlation between authoritarianism and germaphobia. It may be that our two-party dynamic, being focused pri…

I would think (and hope) that, when it comes to the possibility of millions of deaths, ideology would be sacrificed to some extent.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#62
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever the specific case here, I think we're hitting some sort of epistemological point with after-the-fact data analysis. Pseudoscience, basically. I realise that the term is inflammatory but ultimately it comes down to some fundamentals. There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them. Testability is a fundamental. Untestable theories are…

"There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them." Exactly. There's something that's always bothered me about the "evolution by natural selection is science and everyone who doesn't immediately buy into every aspect of it is an idiot". I personally believe in evolution. It probably makes quite a few good predictions. And I'm sure some experime…

> If it dies off, does that contradict the theory because no evolution happened?

Isn't some species dying off a pretty major component of what evolution is?

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#63
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow - not only is this completely false, but it's also definitely not an idea that has popular consensus. It's easily proven: Singapore, South Korea - considerably 'more authoritarian' have successfully contained Coronavirus. America, UK, France - being devastated by Coronavirus. The intellectual arrogance is staggering. Literally, right in front of your eyes, you can see the central leadership of these places on ful…

South Korea is an extremely democratic country. They have one of the highest voting rates of any country and have a very strong culture of protesting against injustice. The reason they are doing OK is because they rose up to remove their former president, who was the daughter of the former dictator and who was abusing her power, and replaced her with a much less corrupt leader. The entire country is working together…

This is interesting - but I think you are misunderstanding the nature of both 'western liberal democracy' (especially regarding institutions and culture) and of 'authoritarianism'. It's not just 'political structure'.

In fact, I think your points help to illustrate the general misunderstanding happening here.

>>> "Korea votes, and the protest against injustice"

Really? No abortion? No gay marriage?

Where are the protests?

Now - I'm not taking a position pro/against those issues - what I'm saying is that those are subject to interpretation.

'Protesting injustice' is not 'liberal democracy'.

In fact, popular protests against perceived injustice could actually be a sign of authoritarian populism i.e. 'Law and Order' regimes.

Koreans are strongly ethnocentric (in-group vs. out-group), they have a very strong, nationalist sentimentality. They have compulsory military service and no problem filling the ranks. They are very traditional, they absolutely support Korean culture as 'normative', they support traditional marriage, traditional family hierarchy. I think it's fair to say that Korea is essential 'patriarchial' both in culture and business but also politics.

Korea values strongly 'national industrial champions' like Samsung ('Chaebols') [1] etc.. The economy is considerably more centralized under the power of this small elite of ruling families than elsewhere. Employees are often actually loyal to these 'families' as they work their entire lives, and 'play their part' in building a 'greater Korea'.

Here is one description of 'Chaebol': "A chaebol often consists of many diversified affiliates, controlled by an owner whose power over the group often exceeds legal authority." (from [1]). This is a pretty powerful statement of authoritarianism.

Of course, from 1955 until only about 20 years ago, Korea was point-blank a 'centrally planned economy' and such systems don't change overnight.

Social behaviours are codified, and deviation will come with 'social shaming'. Actually - this very term 'social shaming' really helps differentiate between US and Korea: 'social shaming' would be seen as mostly a negative artifact in a liberal society, whereas I believe most Koreans would support the kinds of subtle shaming that can be pervasive (my evidence being the fact that such shaming is commonplace). This is an example of systematic authoritarianism, and a specific artifact called right out in the paper as 'social conformity'.

'Getting mad at a strong man' is not an example of 'anti-authoritarianism' - because usually, the strong man is replaced by another one they like ... until they get mad at him as well.

Even though 'they vote a lot' as you say, for the most part, most would argue that Korea is not a 'Western Liberal Democracy' in the broader sense of the term.

And yes, by the way, I agree they're probably not interested in 'individual strong men' quite as much as Russians for example, but systematically, it's still authoritarian.

Korea, Japan, Singapore - similar.

>>>>> The US actually has a problem because our government is a bit too centralized.

I'm sorry but this is just not true, the US is a highly decentralized nation.

In Korea (as in France, Sweden for example) - political, industrial, military, and even cultural centres like the elite Universities, Media, Publications - all have a much tighter relationship with one another and are centralized.

The US doesn't even have a state broadcaster, they have no direct means to communicate with the people.

US Pres. has very limited powers to direct certain activities in normal times. Yes - he can declare 'emergency' powers to do 'some things' - but even then, he does not have the apparatus in place as an instrument of control. He can make 'orders' but where are the agencies to effectuate such orders? He has the military, the IRS. There is no national healthcare system. The pandemic response is hugely fragmented.

Look at how America is responding to the crises: Fed programs, indirect payout programs - these are all 'bigger versions' of things they would do in normal times.

Whereas Trump materially and specifically interjected? He stopped some air travel - but has he coordinated policy? Purchasing? Testing? Not really. He has 'invited' market participants!

You can see America trying to react to this situation on America's strengths (indirect intervention, capitalism, market solutions, distributed authority), which is failing them.

>>>>>>>>>> Strong leadership is different from authoritarianism.

Yes - your point is taken - if we were talking about a CEO, then it would be especially relevant. But in this context, it's not so important.

'Bill Clinton' is an inspiring, the great moral leader in many ways, you could say 'strong leader' but he's the last person we want in charge right now.

A true 'strong leader' with 'authoritarian tendencies' but who very thankfully understood the risk of it - would be Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Eisenhower was not so very 'inspiring' (not like Obama), and he was not a great communicator. But he was absolutely a competent, effective operator, and ruthless if he needed to be. He was Supreme Nato Allied Commander: simple, austere, efficient, down-to-earth but politically nimble, brilliant, 'non-populist', humble, dispassionate manager of mass violence.

But he's totally unlike Trump - who I think is the 'bad kind of strong man' (i.e. aggressive, crude, arrogant, but actually incompetent). The key to understanding his popularity is that many people actually do believe him when he says 'I'm a genius'.

So if Trump was, like Eisenhower: patriotic, loyal, dedicated, organized, competent, then 'authoritarianism' would be good in times like this.

Example: the states are all in a bidding war over PPE, ventilators, there's a lack of coordination, too much will be paid, deliveries won't be optimized etc.

A benevolent central power like Eisenhower would have acted long ago, set temporary price controls on items, set production levels, required isolation by law and had the apparatus to effectuate it (i.e. 'workers' to go to homes, check on health, make sure nobody is cheating). Testing would have been mandatory and prevalent, and he would have demanded that you give up your movement history, which citizens would have accepted due to the nature of the situation.

During WW2 and shortly afterwards - Eisenhower was a 'strong leader' a 'great example', but he was also definitely an authoritarian and a little bit of a strong man as well, by definition, as a military general.

FYI that's why Eisenhower type leaders aren't elected long after wars!

Summary:

+ Korea is institutionally and culturally much more authoritarian than the West. + Authoritarianism is generally misunderstood, miscommunicated + People living in 'Western Liberal Democracies' sometimes have difficulty with this one, having little exposure to anything else. + All of the modern nations that 'tend centrally planned' have actually responded well to coronavirus, all of the 'liberal democracies' are in general disarray - and this is precisely due to the operational competence of some of the 'more authoritarian systems'. + This is not evidence of superiority, nor is it evidence that certain kinds of authoritarianism won't fail: Russia, I believe, if it is 'hit hard' by coronavirus, will be devastated, as will obviously very poor, totally corrupt nations around the world with zero operational competence but who have 'strong man' leaders.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaebol

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#64
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

restating a prior sentiment: such dichotomies--left/right, authoritarian/libertarian--and their cross-products are cognitive traps. they inhibit understanding and obscure solution pathways. so don't worry about the axis affiliations and critique the ideas themselves (as you imply you already do by not judging a priori ). fear-driven decision environments (as with the current pandemic) are ripe for power seizures (eve…

> left/right, authoritarian/libertarian--and their cross-products are cognitive traps No dispute. It's a classic leaky-abstraction problem; some models can be helpful in reasoning, but they're always imperfect at describing messy complex reality. (While it too is imperfect, I'm rather fond of the 8-axis political compass! [0]) A lot of our weird tribal coalitions are byproducts of a First-Past-The-Post voting system,…

> "...some models can be helpful in reasoning..."

totally, models/stereotypes are useful shortcuts and aids. i was mainly advising against soley/overly relying on them. (and online quizzes are always fun!)

yes to election reform! especially curtailing/leveling money's influence, and de-gerrymandering, as both are unnecessary consolidations of power.

as for temporary/emergency powers, skepticism and resistance should correlate with the size of the governing body (somewhat ok with my mayor but not keen on my president exerting power domestically).

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#65
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever the specific case here, I think we're hitting some sort of epistemological point with after-the-fact data analysis. Pseudoscience, basically. I realise that the term is inflammatory but ultimately it comes down to some fundamentals. There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them. Testability is a fundamental. Untestable theories are…

"There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them." Exactly. There's something that's always bothered me about the "evolution by natural selection is science and everyone who doesn't immediately buy into every aspect of it is an idiot". I personally believe in evolution. It probably makes quite a few good predictions. And I'm sure some experime…

I agree. I comfortably assert that evolution is fact, and evolution is science. This is independent of various social / cultural phenomena surrounding the discussion.

As a skeptic and contrarian I've encountered the "evolution is science and if you question any aspect you are an idiot" people, and worse. Many ignorant people believe in evolution without understanding it, without understanding the evidentiary basis for it. They have chosen the correct cultural 'team' to side with, but usually for the wrong reasons.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#66
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever the specific case here, I think we're hitting some sort of epistemological point with after-the-fact data analysis. Pseudoscience, basically. I realise that the term is inflammatory but ultimately it comes down to some fundamentals. There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them. Testability is a fundamental. Untestable theories are…

"There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them." Exactly. There's something that's always bothered me about the "evolution by natural selection is science and everyone who doesn't immediately buy into every aspect of it is an idiot". I personally believe in evolution. It probably makes quite a few good predictions. And I'm sure some experime…

>Does any change count as "evolution" or is someone quantifying which ones actually improve fitness?

I think it's helpful to get distance from the idea of "fitness" in discussion with laypeople, as it is often loaded with presumptions. Evolution selects for what it selects for. It's true that surviving to maturity and producing offspring is vital for evolution (for the forms of life that work this way), but that's far from the whole story and our intuition about 'fitness' is often wrong.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them." Exactly. There's something that's always bothered me about the "evolution by natural selection is science and everyone who doesn't immediately buy into every aspect of it is an idiot". I personally believe in evolution. It probably makes quite a few good predictions. And I'm sure some experime…

> If it dies off, does that contradict the theory because no evolution happened? Isn't some species dying off a pretty major component of what evolution is?

So if the species is wiped out, it's evolution; and if it's not wiped out, it's evolution?

Doesn't sound like science to me.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it dies off, does that contradict the theory because no evolution happened? Isn't some species dying off a pretty major component of what evolution is?

So if the species is wiped out, it's evolution; and if it's not wiped out, it's evolution? Doesn't sound like science to me.

I'm no biologist, if you want high quality answers you'll have to go find one to ask. But I'm pretty sure you have some wrong ideas about how evolutionary biology works as a field. They observe reality and form theories that fit what they've perceived thusfar. They make predictions based on those theories. Subsequent discoveries can confirm their predictions, or confirmation may remain elusive. It works basically the same way as astrophysics.

Biology is traditionally considered a "hard science" by people who subscribe to a 'hard/soft science' worldview.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#69
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever the specific case here, I think we're hitting some sort of epistemological point with after-the-fact data analysis. Pseudoscience, basically. I realise that the term is inflammatory but ultimately it comes down to some fundamentals. There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them. Testability is a fundamental. Untestable theories are…

"There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them." Exactly. There's something that's always bothered me about the "evolution by natural selection is science and everyone who doesn't immediately buy into every aspect of it is an idiot". I personally believe in evolution. It probably makes quite a few good predictions. And I'm sure some experime…

This is the opposite of what I meant.

Darwinism is is a scientific theory par excellence. A lot of that "testable predictions" philosophy of science was inspired by darwinism.

First, a scientific theory doesn't need to make only testable predictions. It just needs to make a testable prediction. Testing it doesn't "prove" the theory, it just subjects the theory to falsification.

Second, "testable/falsifiable" doesn't strictly mean "testable in practice." Even if it's not practical to test a prediction. EG, new species of bat will emerge in the future. We don't live long enough to test this in practice, but theoretically, it is a testable prediction. That doesn't make it unfalsifiable.

"Origin of Species" itself is full of predictions, some tested by Darwin himself and after is death. At this point, evolution has made so many predictions, that it is very very unlikely to be true. Unlikely, but nothing in science is proven beyond doubt ever.

Newtonian physics was "disproven" by Einstein. To do that though, Einsten's theory had to predict Netwonian physics.

Re: Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism (2013)

#70
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There's a reason why science as a philosophy places so much value on experimentation that makes predictions and tests them." Exactly. There's something that's always bothered me about the "evolution by natural selection is science and everyone who doesn't immediately buy into every aspect of it is an idiot". I personally believe in evolution. It probably makes quite a few good predictions. And I'm sure some experime…

I agree. I comfortably assert that evolution is fact, and evolution is science. This is independent of various social / cultural phenomena surrounding the discussion. As a skeptic and contrarian I've encountered the "evolution is science and if you question any aspect you are an idiot" people, and worse. Many ignorant people believe in evolution without understanding it, without understanding the evidentiary basis fo…

Just because people believe in a scientific theory doesn't mean they don't believe in science. They don't technically even have to know about science.

In practice though, most evolution skeptics don't believe in science.

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