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New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

theatlantic.com

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Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#61

Post by igetspam »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #35
tomatocracy wrote: post #30

The political acceptability of releasing then locking down again is likely to be very low in my view. Friends and colleagues I speak to who haven’t followed the modelling papers etc think the point of a lockdown is to eliminate the virus entirely - not contain, not delay but eliminate entirely. There is also a very strong fear of getting the virus (many of the same people are convinced that it’s a death sentence almo…

Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease. I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go on.

The possible end result of the disease is death. Which cure is worse? A 44 year old school teacher and father of six died in my county. He went from sick to dead in a week. He had no underlying conditions that made him "at risk." By all accounts, he was active and healthy. The population of people who are at risk of death or long term lung damage are those that can be classified as "human."

I don't particularly care if people don't want to protect themselves but this isn't about selfish individuals. This is about everyone else. If, like some politicians, you are willing to "sacrifice" yourself, please do it quickly and away from populations.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#62

Post by core-questions »

swsieber wrote: post #32
frosted-flakes wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would young families suddenly have more children?

There are various memes floating around about how there's going to be a surge of kids conceived during this quarantine/social distancing times. In short, it seems likely people are going to have more sex when they are stuck at home. OTOH, I know people with children who are going crazy. I don't they are encouraged to have more children.

> I know people with children who are going crazy

I am going crazy, but my kids are also learning an absolute ton from having all this 1:1 attention from someone who is totally invested in them. I've seen big strides from each of them. Their character is really coming out.

I'm one to look for silver linings; this is surprisingly one of them.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#63

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

GavinMcG wrote: post #39
alexandercrohde wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease. I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go on.

The cure would likely be worse than the disease for you . Are millions of people dying an acceptable trade-off for us to be able to date?

Hopefully we'll discover the tradeoff is less severe than that, but if not it's going to have to be. I don't think you realize just how unhappy people are with being locked down; it's very likely we would see violent rebellions against an attempt to impose a second one.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#64

Post by patall »

dominotw wrote: post #55
CydeWeys wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being an island nation is definitely an advantage in this regard.

not for UK evidently

Which evidence? Do we have a continental control UK where results are the same?

In my parents county, there is one village with 9 cases out of 800 inhabitants that has been put on full lock-down, nobody is allowed to leave the village. Unfortunately, there are hundreds of hiking trails in the area and somehow, some of the locals have gotten 'lost' in their backyard, only to reappear in the next towns supermarket.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#65

Post by rootusrootus »

vanniv wrote: post #40

Now that governments have proven that people will let them imprison everyone at any time, just by saying "virus", they're gearing up to do it again, all the time, forever, whenever it would be convenient. After they've done it a few times, they'll just make it permanent. By everyone agreeing to huddle terrified in their homes over nothing, we have permanently ended free movement and free assembly in our societies.

This is voluntary. At least in the US, there is nowhere near enough police (including every last sworn officer and every single military member, police or not) to force people to stay at home. They are extremely outnumbered, both by population and by weaponry. Imagining this leading to an authoritarian state is fearmongering.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#66

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

cactus2093 wrote: post #50
alexandercrohde wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease. I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go on.

And this is why we need police or national guard to enforce lockdowns. And to charge people spreading the virus with felony murder and manslaughter charges, like they seem to be doing in extreme cases in Italy. I’ve seen some toxic comments on this site before, but nothing like someone blatantly saying “I’ll happy kill those around me to avoid any inconvenience to my daily routine”.

This kind of attitude is exactly my concern. You don't seem to have a shred of sympathy for the rights or motivations of the people who don't want to be locked down; you're talking about them as though they're cattle, and they'll be prodded into compliance no matter what they have to think about it. Every advocate I've seen of months-long lockdowns has had this kind of authoritarian power fantasy.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#67

Post by throwaway122378 »

empath75 wrote: post #2

Successive lockdowns and easings are probably going to continue for up to two years. Anybody arguing that the stock market or the economy is going to bounce back quickly in the next two months are either bullshitting you or deluding themselves. No “stimulus” package is going to be effective, because you can’t use spending to stimulate an economy which has been forced to stop producing goods and services. All you will…

For the next 2 years? You understand that there are antivirals being tested as we speak and vaccines in trial for a 12 month release right?

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#68

Post by amylene »

izend wrote: post #52
GavinMcG wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cure would likely be worse than the disease for you . Are millions of people dying an acceptable trade-off for us to be able to date?

There is a legitimate debate of: Cause an Economic Depression vs X times the number of yearly deaths. Note, the Economic Depression would indirectly cause deaths. For example everyone agreed that not shutting down the global economic was the correct decision in regards to the Swine Flu pandemic which did cause 100,000 or more deaths. What if it was 1 million projected deaths, 10 million or 50 million? I honestly do n…

Deaths would also worsen an economic depression. Why does everybody forget about this?

Also, an economic depression reduces air pollution which would reduce deaths.

There are lots of factors that would need to be considered. Most people I’ve seen advocating this pov are stopping at the first order analysis.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#69

Post by amylene »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #63
GavinMcG wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cure would likely be worse than the disease for you . Are millions of people dying an acceptable trade-off for us to be able to date?

Hopefully we'll discover the tradeoff is less severe than that, but if not it's going to have to be. I don't think you realize just how unhappy people are with being locked down; it's very likely we would see violent rebellions against an attempt to impose a second one.

When you say, very likely, can you put a percent on it so we know if you mean 20% or 80%?

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#70

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

igetspam wrote: post #61
alexandercrohde wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease. I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go on.

The possible end result of the disease is death. Which cure is worse? A 44 year old school teacher and father of six died in my county. He went from sick to dead in a week. He had no underlying conditions that made him "at risk." By all accounts, he was active and healthy. The population of people who are at risk of death or long term lung damage are those that can be classified as "human." I don't particularly care…

I guess I'm not sure I see why we're the ones who have to move. I'd be totally fine with a proposal to construct voluntary social distancing sites for people who'd like to spend the next 18 months isolated.
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