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How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

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Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#61

Post by CriticalCathed »

look_lookatme wrote: post #18

I think a lot of people in medicine, science, economics, policy and the media think what's happening right now is their shining moment, but if you talk to people on the ground -- this is a catastrophe and no one has any clue what's happening and people see that and they are internalizing it. The experts are f* this up and it is going to have long term implications for already eroded public trust in institutions.

Absolutely. One of the worst consequences that we may have to deal with at the end of this is that public trust will go down. In the beginning our leaders failed to act on the guidance of the scientific and medical communities -- almost two months wasted. And now, our leaders are flailing around implementing policy that is not based on reliable data or scientific evidence. They've both failed to react and then when they did react they are in many ways failing to act prudently.

Take a look at this editorial written by John Ioannidis. Excerpt that is relevant, though the whole thing is a worthwhile read:

>If COVID-19 is not as grave as it is depicted, high evidence standards are equally relevant. Exaggeration and over-reaction may seriously damage the reputation of science, public health, media, and policy makers. It may foster disbelief that will jeopardize the prospects of an appropriately strong response if and when a more major pandemic strikes in the future. [0]

Quick BIO rip from wikipedia:

>Ioannidis studies scientific research itself, especially in clinical medicine and the social sciences. He is one of the most-cited scientists in literature. His 2005 paper "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" is the most downloaded paper in the Public Library of Science, and has the highest number of Mendeley readers across all science."

>Ioannidis is a Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director, along with Steven N. Goodman, of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS). He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine.

[0] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#62

Post by tdfx »

look_lookatme wrote: post #18

I think a lot of people in medicine, science, economics, policy and the media think what's happening right now is their shining moment, but if you talk to people on the ground -- this is a catastrophe and no one has any clue what's happening and people see that and they are internalizing it. The experts are f* this up and it is going to have long term implications for already eroded public trust in institutions.

From the casual observer point of view, it appears only some Asian governments have been able to competently handle this crisis. It appears we're going to learn the hard way things that China, South Korea, etc. understood through intuition:

(1) Widespread testing is key. Testing symptomatic people is too little, too late. (2) You can't rely on people to self-quarantine. (3) Infected people need to be isolated from their households.

So now we have a massive, economy-strangling quarantine that is not even going to provide any relief, killing the economy and still not flattening the curve. All the pain with none of the benefit.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#63

Post by superzamp »

tyingq wrote: post #5

The mask guidance is confusing as well. I get they are trying to preserve masks for medical staff. But, they also say it's mainly spread by coughing, sneezing, and resulting spray of bodily fluids. Surely even a scarf around your face would have some benefit? Yes, I get that the virus is small enough to pass through, but some deflection is better than none.

My thought as well. The repeated consensus from gov & medical here in France seems to be that they are not effective at protecting you and that's pretty much all that they say.

YES, we get it, but what about protecting others from your cough since most people don't even know they're contagious. Even a 20% decrease from a crappy solution is interesting when dealing with exponential curves.

Drives me mad.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#64

Post by ellius »

ceejayoz wrote: post #55
ellius wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there are two "mental tools" I wish we could teach every person, they are exponential growth and statistical thinking. Neither is intuitive, but they would help people understand this whole situation (and many others) a lot better.

My high school math teacher introduced exponential growth by asking the class if we'd take $1M now or $0.01 doubled daily for a month. We, as most people do, wanted the $1M, but the penny turns into more than $5M. Had to explain this to someone yesterday. They literally wouldn't believe me until I screenshotted an Excel spreadsheet of the daily doublings, despite a finance degree.

I think that's exactly the issue. People can't picture it. You can show them a curve on a graph, but that doesn't translate for people without a mathematical/scientific background into "a shitload of people will get ill very quickly." Our brains seem not to be very well wired to make the connection between mathematical abstractions and reality, and aside from the minority of people who seem to just "get it," people don't understand without a good explanation from a very good teacher.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#65

Post by sigmar »

tathougies wrote: post #46
davelacy wrote: post #31

CDC has there shortcomings, no doubt but let’s not forget who’s truly to blame for the mess we’re in now. The trump administration’s disbandment of federal institutions created to combat this and the ongoing denial of a serious problem have led to a collapsing economy and isolation of millions. Good article here for sure but let’s not pass the blame to the CDC. We know who to blame...

Evidence? CDC has more funding than ever. And it's a myth trump got rid of the pandemic team at NSC. They just renamed it the bioterrorism team after people left. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-... https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/12/joy-behar/...

CDC budget for FY '18 was lower than FY '17. Source: https://www.hhs.gov/about/budget/fy2018/budget-in-brief/cdc/...

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#66

Post by fsagx »

ellius wrote: post #48
Thriptic wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very irritating because people don't understand the concept of defense in depth. Are surgical masks going to give you total protection? Of course not, but as you say they provide SOME benefit. Saying "masks don't work because they don't fully stop the virus and users misuse them" is basically equivalent to saying "code review is a waste of time because it won't catch every bug and because devs don't do it correc…

If there are two "mental tools" I wish we could teach every person, they are exponential growth and statistical thinking. Neither is intuitive, but they would help people understand this whole situation (and many others) a lot better.

I remember how it was taught in high school math class. It was some variation on the "rice on the chessboard" story:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#67

Post by tathougies »

CriticalCathed wrote: post #52
tathougies wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Evidence? CDC has more funding than ever. And it's a myth trump got rid of the pandemic team at NSC. They just renamed it the bioterrorism team after people left. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-... https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/12/joy-behar/...

You are spreading misinformation yourself. Even your own link doesn't support exactly what you just said. "Renaming" is not what happened. Your link: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/17/instagram-...

> After Ziemer’s departure, the global health team was reorganized as part of an effort by then-National Security Adviser John Bolton

From https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-bud...

> Morrison objected to claims that the office was “dissolved,” writing in the Post on March 16 that the administration “create[d] the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented.”

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#68

Post by ceejayoz »

look_lookatme wrote: post #18

I think a lot of people in medicine, science, economics, policy and the media think what's happening right now is their shining moment, but if you talk to people on the ground -- this is a catastrophe and no one has any clue what's happening and people see that and they are internalizing it. The experts are f* this up and it is going to have long term implications for already eroded public trust in institutions.

The experts are, in part, getting kneecapped by politics.

Watch one of the now-daily press conferences and you'll see Dr. Fauci trying to gently (so he doesn't get fired) correct inaccurate information from the President, in real-time from the same room.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#69

Post by Jare »

erentz wrote: post #16
tyingq wrote: post #5

The mask guidance is confusing as well. I get they are trying to preserve masks for medical staff. But, they also say it's mainly spread by coughing, sneezing, and resulting spray of bodily fluids. Surely even a scarf around your face would have some benefit? Yes, I get that the virus is small enough to pass through, but some deflection is better than none.

The whole blaming people for hoarding masks and then the "masks don't work" things have been incredibly frustrating. It is almost like authorities didn't want anyone to start asking why the public couldn't get masks, as they can in say Taiwan. Most (if not all) distributors and manufacturers of masks has been prioritizing health care systems and governments over retailers since January. Just as they should do. Were t…

- If you tell the public that masks are great protection, and the public can't find then to buy, that is a huge source of unrest.

- The messaging (in Spain but looks similar everywhere) has been that you should wear one if you are sick or, more importantly here, if you are at risk. This is a clear indication that they do help protect against being infected. This should have prevented everyone from harassing anyone wearing one ("they must be a risk group"). The fact that people did that is indication that people are not acting responsibly.

I personally hate being told something that is patently false, but I totally understand that, collectively, we need to be lied to for our own protection, because collectively we become a bunch of idiots.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#70

Post by rmetzler »

capableweb wrote: post #8

> As the coronavirus epidemic spread around the globe, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided restrictive guidance on who should be tested, archived pages on its website show. While agencies in other countries were advising and conducting widespread testing, the CDC, charged with setting the U.S. standard for who should be tested for the virus, kept its criteria limited Well, "other countries" also d…

Germany does the same. I’m under the impression that there is a big selection bias because I know a lot of friends who have symptoms but can’t get testing because they don’t fit the criteria. And the criteria is having contact with a known corona patient or traveled to a risk area.
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